California's recall, how it works and what will happen

[Ishkaboogl]

first, you decide if davis should be recalled
second, and regardless of how you answered part 1, you choose who you want to replace davis IN THE EVENT THAT DAVIS LOSES PART 1

now, i have heard many say that there will be no Democrat on the list of candidates. this is politics, remember? every single possible democrat is being asked if they plan to run. what are they gonna say? yes? right now, the strategy is to discourage people from signing the petition. if they don't disclaim interest, they will fall into the GOP's hands by playing the game. right now, dems need to refuse to play the game, and instead blast the recall itself as costly, undemocratic, and politically harmful to the state. that's what they're doing.

the california democratic party has a healthy amount of discipline. if the petition is successful, and the election will be held sometime other than the march primary, and davis is bombing in the polls, then someone will step in and the others will stay out. i predict that feinstein will be that person. of course she will disclaim interest, but if she sees her entry as the only way to hold the seat (her entry will guarantee victory), then i think she'll do it. if davis is doing poorly in the polls, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DEMOCRAT ON THE TICKET, AND IT WILL BE ONE OF THE ONES THAT DISCLAIMED INTEREST.

i find a lot of people worrying that dems will not retain the seat. i am not worried. now that we've looked at the dem side, let's check out the gop.

Issa has put in too much money into this recall effort to not run. he will feel like it was his baby, and he's not gonna hand the keys to the car (no joke intended, but funny nonetheless) over the arnold. he will run for governor. now this creates a problem for the gop. see, in calfornia, the gop is different. we have these idiots who can't play the game worth shit. they are really really conservative, and they never compromise their ideals for practicality and getting stuff done. hence, we have loser simon, instead of gov. riordan. but it's looking like arnold will run. sure he's a republican, but...

<Schwarzenegger's positions on the issues are not widely known. But he is commonly described as fiscally conservative and socially liberal, a supporter of abortion rights, adoption by gay and lesbian parents and, at least off-screen, a ban on assault weapons.>

my point is this: issa will be on the ballot. if arnold is on the ballot, the gop vote will be split, dooming any possible chances of the dems losing the office. that's why we on the left coast don't fear arnold. issa as the only gop alternative to davis is the threat; hence, we see negative ads run against him.

one variable is the senate race. issa may be positioning himself for a senate run in '04, meaning that he wouldn't mind handing the reins over to arnold as long as he was guaranteed primary support from the gop power structure a year from now. still, many republicans in california will refuse to vote for a pro-choice candidate, so if arnold is the only republican on the ballot, expect lower gop turnout that previously assumed.

one more point: i don't think you guys understand how fucked up the political scene is in california. our state is probably the hardest state to govern, but our state government does so much worse its unbelievable. recalls, propositions, 2/3 requirement for budget passage, redistricted safe districts (meaning ideologically pure and anti-consensus representatives), it all sucks. oh, to live in a politically sane state...

[Capn Sunshine]

1. I re-iterate

I'm pretty sure that if Davis RESIGNS , and Lt. Gov Bustamente takes over, the recall becomes MOOT. He's gone. Finito. Conservatives have blown a whole lot of money and state money on NADA and look like the elephants asses they are.

[ParanoidPat]

2. It's funny how some people just don't get it!

There will be no Republican Gov. for California this year, next year or any year in the near future!

That's why they call it the LEFT coast! :evilgrin:

[tinanator]

3. maybe theres a higher purpose?

Ive been puzzling over the lack of coverage regarding Wolf Blitzers CNN poll. BUZZFLASH hasnt featured it, other websites dont mention it, isnt it noteworthy? http://www.cnn.com/POLLSERVER/results/4340.html

The only thing I can think of is the money. Perhaps these people who are crying rape regardless of the relative unlikelihood of a Republican victory in modern day California are really just trying to keep the coffers filled, and perhaps that poll scares the money hungry? Hey cynicism is better than nothing :)