Any bets the new GDP figures will be adjusted downward?

[Redleg]

This seems to be a pattern with economic indicators. Of course the media and talking heads don't seem to pick up on the adjustments.

[wryter2000]

1. As soon as it is adjusted

I hope someone will post the information here. There's a certain supply-sider at work who'd just love to eat his words. I'm going to make damned sure of that.

[wuushew]

2. Someone posted yesterday that historically it has never been more than .5%

We shall see

[alcuno]

3. I found Friday's numbers more interesting

Personal income up .3% for the month of Septemeber
Personal spending down .3% for the month of September

and generally ignored by all.

[intheozone]

4. Ding, ding, ding, I think

we have a winner. You are probably absolutely right, I thought the same thing myself. Look for more and more phony numbers to be used the closer Nov. '04 gets.

[Zomby Woof]

5. most certainly they will be downplayed

I am heartened that even the GOP-loving Arizona Republic newspaper headline stressed the lack of jobs in the latest numbers, which balanced the pro-growth spin quite nicely.

That spin is being that this enormous new number will CREATE jobs. Supply-side BS once again. The main jobs that will be created domestically will be the usual holiday seasonal retail jobs. Watch for another artifically high 4th quarter report, and a slight drop in unemployment claims.

Oh, and weak consumer spending got play in our far less conservative local paper this morning. How can the GOP and the corporate press reconcile such high "growth" in the GDP with the lack of jobs and consumer spending???

Talk about voodoo economics!

[SOS]

6. 7.2% was mighty convenient

This figure was just enough for the Bush gang to claim the most robust growth in "20 years".
Just look at a chart and you will see 1999 Q4 at just about 7% annualized. But a headline reading "After 3 years of job loss, recession and slow growth, Bush manages to match Clintons numbers" wouldn't help Bush's re-election campaign.
It will likely be adjusted down below 1999 Q4, but that certainly won't be reported in the state-run media.

[Zorra]

7. Probably will.

US consumer spending eases
By Alan Beattie in Washington
Published: October 31 2003 15:48 | Last Updated: October 31 2003 19:49
Consumer spending in the US tailed off sharply at the end of the third quarter, according to data released on Friday, adding to economists' suspicions that the economy would slow considerably after its breakneck growth over the summer.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565535239&p=1012571727102

[charlie]

8. Gonna be a while

If I'm not mistaken, revisions are usually done in July, when they review the data for the past 3 years.

[kentuck]

9. If I were a candidate in KY or MS, I would be telling people....

that it is a lie to try and get their vote...they are being manipulated by "good news", which they are likely to change as soon as the election is over...