About the Dean Movement.......

[Wetzelbill]

It's great that he does have so many people behind him, especially young people and the disenchanted who he has brought back into politics. Obviously, Dean says the right things and pushes the right buttons. He's fiery. Emotional. Angry. All of this I like. However, were he to be our nominee, I am worried about his first timers actually making it out to the polls. I wonder if this might hurt him. It's fun to jump on the bandwagon and be involved in heated discussions. It's fun to be angry and passionate. There just isn't any sexiness in showing up to actually vote and half of our country doesn't do that, including myself at times, to be honest. I'm concerned about the reliability of some of Dean's bandwagon jumpers. Not anybody on DU, we all are pretty passionate people, just the thousands out there watching tv and joining in on the chorus. Again, this is not a knock on Dean, just a ponderance of the Newbie Deanites he's seems to have attracted so well.

[Stuckinthebush]

1. It's more likely that newbie Deanites

will go to the polls for Dean than they would for another candidate.

[liberalnurse]

10. Yes, I agree.

Dean is the go-to guy. Lets unite and fight *bush NOW.

[NicoleM]

2. They're not stupid.

They know they only way he wins is if people vote for him. If you're expending enough energy to get "emotional" and "angry," I'd say odds are pretty good that you're going to vote on election day.

Plus, I'm sure that Dean supporters will hound each other to death to make sure that as many of them/us vote as possible.

[KaraokeKarlton]

3. The Dean supporters wish they could vote right now

These same people are getting out volunteering, canvassing, going to visibility events, have registered to vote, go to their meetups, get out tabling, going to house parties, etc., etc.

Why on earth do you think these people wouldn't also get out the vote? They'll be the first ones in line to vote, mark my word. They're chomping at the bit to vote!

[Le Taz Hot]

4. This has been such a well-oiled campaign

-- the best I've ever been involved in, actually, that I'm confident that GOTV effort will be in full swing on election day. Remember we started forming candidate caucuses in September and October and are lining up our own delegates. The only other candidate I've seen do that is Clinton. With almost 550,000 voluneers -- and undoubtedly more after some of the candidates drop out (don't flame me, it's inevitable) -- there will be a HUGE volunteer base to help with the GOTV effort.

Everything has been so well organized so far I don't see them dropping the ball on General Election day.

[deminflorida]

5. You'll be able to measure how valid your arugument is after....

all the old people in South Carolina go to the polls.

[trogdor]

8. We will see.

Let the best man win. Really. Almost regardless of the outcome, this has been good for the party, or at least it might have been if certain individuals <cough>Lieberman</cough> haven't been actively engaged in attempting to derail the only campaign that actually gets people's attention. I have no idea how Joe figures he can beat George Bush, I really don't.

Dean and Clark, however, have got it going on, each in their own way. A non-Dean nominee would be an idiot to do anything to piss off the Deanies. We're talking about hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom have never cast a ballot in their lives. You don't want to pop their balloons and keep them home on Election Day because the only way you're going to win is to get new voters' attention. Everybody else has already made up their minds, more or less.

[CWebster]

6. oh, like they would be willing to vote for another one more

than Dean if they weren't suitably motivated to vote.

That is what it is all about, isn't it?

This is silly.

[Wetzelbill]

9. no, how the hell do you get that?

[dansolo]

7. The only reason that they wouldn't vote

Would be if they were too busy helping other people to vote. Not only do I have no doubt that the people Dean has energized will vote, but I also believe that the Dean organization will have an immense GOTV effort, which will not only help Dean, but all Democratic races.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

11. Bringing new voters is a major part of this campaign

And it may lead to a more decisive win than you see in the polls, because many of these new voters aren't being polled.

Dean's organization started early, with grassroots efforts by Dem activists, and there has been (at least where I live, and in the stories I hear from other places) a major focus on GOTV as well as precinct walking, etc.

I don't know where this argument came from but it's upside down. Yes there may be a small number of "bandwagon jumpers" who will be too lazy to vote, but I bet this number is far smaller for Dean than for the other candidates, because the campaign is so focused on action and the participation of its supporters. These are people who have written over 100,000 letters to undecided voters, and who will travel in thousands to canvass voters in another state. It's infectious and will bring nearly all of his supporters to the polls when it's time to vote.

[Wetzelbill]

12. I actually was not arguing that this would happen

just curious if it will.

[HFishbine]

13. I love smart people

Well-reasoned analysis Amerikav60!

[cthrumatrix]

14. people are excited to "change the leadership"...Dean inspires that thought

[Padraig18]

15. I think it's unlikely that they would *not* vote in droves.

Our 'base' is VERY active and VERY committed.:)

[Hep]

16. Just remember

My first presidential vote was 1992, Bill Clinton. We came out in great numbers.