Need some fantasy baseball advice.

[MallRat]

Well, I figure since I've asked just about everybody else, why not the DU Lounge?

I've been playing fantasy baseball for 5 years, fantasy sports in general for nearly 10 years- I've never been so baffled by a trade offer before.

10-team, 5x5 head-to-head league. Standard rosters with 1 Utility position. I'm currently in 2nd place. The 9th-place team just offered me the following deal:

I get:
A-Rod (SS, 3B)
Berkman (OF)
J. Guillen (OF)
Sheets (SP)

I give:
D. Lee (1B)
D. Young (1B, 3B, OF)
C. Lee (OF)
Hidalgo (OF)
Radke (SP)
L. Hernandez (SP)

If I go through with this trade, my roster would look like this:
C: I. Rodriguez
1B: Ortiz
2B: M. Young
SS: Renteria
3B: A-Rod
OF: Abreu, Berkman, J. Guillen, Dye, Finley
SP: Prior, Vazquez, Sheets, Milton, Batista, D. Cabrera
RP: Isringhausen, Baez, Takatsu

I can't put my finger on why this trade makes me uneasy. Maybe it's
because I'm a junkie for depth, and this deal would leave me to pick
up free agent scrubs to backup my infielders. I'd rather have 6 good
players than 2 or 3 great ones.

Maybe it's because nearly every player (except maybe Hernandez) I'd be
trading away is somewhere between solidly productive and absolutely
red-hot right now. By comparison, Berkman has been ice cold in the
power department for well over a month and is notorious for vanishing
in August and September. Sheets has been excellent, but can he keep it
up?

Or maybe it's because red flags go up in my mind when I see A-Rod's
name come up in a trade proposal. I just assume I'm being asked to
overpay.

Talk me down, folks. Would you do this trade? I need to make a decision by the end of the day.

-MR

[HuckleB]

1. You can't count on Sheets or Guillen to maintain their current play.

So I'd say... do what you want.

:)

[MallRat]

2. I keep waiting for Sheets to come down to earth.

But even when he loses, he goes 6-7 innings, gives up 3 ERs, and records 8-9 strikeouts.

I just get the sense that I'm buying high on him. He's a Milwaukee Brewer- the ceiling only goes so high, and the floor is a long way down.

-MR

[mrboba1]

9. agreed. Those 2 are on their way down

Sheets is getting frustrated - not a good thing for a pitcher.
And that team is about to head south for the fall too.

Don't do it!!

[Magrittes Pipe]

3. Do it.

Sheets is a better bet than Radke and Hernandez (he's probably not quite as good as he's been so far, but he will still be better in all categories -- except maybe wins, after all, he plays for the Brewers).

My only concern with your lineup (before OR after), in a 5x5 league, it looks like you're going to be short on steals. You may be able to pick up some speedy scrubs for depth there.

[MallRat]

4. Actually, "Wins" is the one pitching category I keep losing each week

I've fallen short on K's a couple of times lately, but W's are really what I need. I'm solid in all the other pitching categories.

If I trade away Radke, I'm concerned that I'll fall further behind in wins.

-MR

[MallRat]

5. So far: 1 for, 1 against.

Anyone else?

[mrboba1]

10. don't do it.

see above for part. Also, on further review, Derrek Lee is a slow starter and is now hitting his stride - don't dump him.
A-Rod is nice and all, but you have more than what you'd get back.

[mac56]

6. I think I'd do it.

But you may want to upgrade at 1B.

[MallRat]

7. Can't really upgrade with the flotsam & jetsam in free agency.

What if I countered with the same offer, except I hold onto Derrek Lee or Dmitri Young? Then I could retain some depth at 1B.

-MR

[mac56]

8. I think that's wise.

Actually I think Young is the better choice!

[MallRat]

11. 2 for, 2 against.

Anyone else?

:kick:

[bo44]

12. I wouldn't

I would not give up two pitchers for one. Hidalgo is very hot right now. In total you are giving up too much for just A-Rod.

[Commendatori]

13. If you don't take it, which team in your league would most likely

trade for A-Rod, Sheets or whoever?

In my fantasy experience I have made "uneasy" trades like that just to keep someone else from filling a gap. Who is contending and has a crappy infield? Is A-Rod a SS/3B in your league, or just one position? Depending on that answer, take a quick scan at league rosters and see who is dying for A-Rod and can offer something similar to what's being asked of you.

What place are you in? How many games out if not in first?

Also, is the team offering this to you in contention? If it's a desperation shakeup, make a counteroffer. Often they cave in just to get a deal done.

Further, what does your waiver wire look like? I'm in a league so thin on talent that I'm actually using Scott Podsednik as an everyday outfielder (my infield is bulletproof, at least).

I wouldn't be so quick to count on a collapse by Sheets; some pitchers just have monster years (Steve Stone, Wayne Garland and dozens more up to today), and when they're on that sort of roll they're less likely to collapse than hitters on a roll are. This may well be the only great season in Sheets' career, but I expect it to continue.

My gut feel is to take the trade, but any one of the above factors could change my mind. To be honest, the upside of what you're being offered trumps the upside of what's being asked of you. JMHO.

[MallRat]

14. I'm currently in 2nd place.

The top 6 teams in our league go to the playoffs.

I'm currently 14 games out of first, which in a 5x5 league is not that far behind with 6 weeks to go. 3rd place team is 20 games out. Right now, the cutoff for a playoff berth (6th place) is 26.5 games out.

The team making the offer is in 11th place: more than 40 games out.

The 3rd and 6th place teams could use A-Rod badly, but they don't have the kind of depth to offer the 11th place guy.

I think the owner making the offer just wants to finish strong by trading away his big-name stars to load up his roster with solid performers at multiple positions: giving up studs for depth.

I like depth. Hence, my difficulty in pulling the trigger.

For obvious reasons, I lend a lot of weight to your recommendation, BlueOyster. :-)

[Commendatori]

17. Would that have anything to do with our being in a FFL league together?

:)

It's my opinion that depth, while important, is a bit overrated in that I've seen tons of people stock up on good players that they never use just to be safe. Some depth is fine (you never want to be one deep), but passing up A-Rod and Berkman (who both hit well late in the year) would honestly take more depth than you're thinking of saving.

I don't want to give you advice and then see you lose five players in two weeks to the DL, or see anyone hit a slump, but just my opinion: I'd take this trade unless your season goes right up to the last day of the regular season and then stops (which is when I would expect A-Rod to be resting more than you'd like him to).

BTW, I hope you're in a knowledgeable league. I just offered Giambi to some dork for some outfield help (Moises Alou) and the guy snapped it up like a well-oiled bear trap. My original offer was Giambi for Adam Dunn, and I expected to be told to go have sex with a farm animal, but to my amazement he counteroffered with Alou.

This is a lesson that will serve you well in any league for any sport: the last-place owners are there for a reason. Exploit their ignorance for your own gain. If you have a deadline coming up, find the weakest owners and pick them clean. You'll be amazed at what they'll agree to just to feel active and competitive.

Don't believe me? Last year I got some last place clown with RB woes to give up Chad Pennington for Troy Hambrick, whom I was actually about to waive. I sent out a smartass trade offer, and the guy bit on it. Don't be afraid to try this in your baseball league.

Good luck.

[MallRat]

18. The fantasy football thing is part of it.

But you have to admit that your credentials when it comes to matters involving baseball are better than the average schmoe's. :-)

Our season does go up to the final day. Our semifinals are the 2nd week of September, and the championships are the last 2 weeks of the regular season added together. How does that change your opinion?

Regarding performance, I was surprised when I looked at the career month-by-month splits for Berkman:

April (92 games): 66 R, 23 HR, 63 RBI, .271 AVG
May (128 games): 88 R, 35 HR, 114 RBI, .331 AVG
June (127 games): 83 R, 27 HR, 90 RBI, .306 AVG
July (136 games): 90 R, 28 HR, 89 RBI, .310 AVG
August (118 games): 75 R, 16 HR, 67 RBI, .263 AVG
September (105 games): 65 R, 13 HR, 63 RBI, .299 AVG

If he's ice cold in July, he'd better break with tradition in August. His power numbers are also down on a per-game basis in September as well.


A-Rod's career splits? Only one word to describe his Augusts- wow.:
April (191): 161 R, 52 HR, 156 RBI, .321 AVG
May (237): 199 R, 68 HR, 187 RBI, .317 AVG
June (241): 189 R, 53 HR, 163 RBI, .303 AVG
July (249): 190 R, 64 HR, 189 RBI, .304 AVG
August (238): 201 R, 80 HR, 210 RBI, .328 AVG
September (203): 135 R, 49 HR, 141 RBI, .265 AVG

Even with the drop-off in batting average in September, his late-season performance is pretty incredible.

-MR

[Commendatori]

20. Ugh.

Every time I think I have a grip on charting out a fantasy season, I remind myself of 1978 and what it would have been like if I scooped up a bunch of Red Sox in August.

As for the career numbers, don't forget to look at games played and at-bats. In Berkman's case, of course, .263 isn't ideal, but if the team is anywhere close to a wild card in a month, he'll be doing fine. Note that A-Rod's career September numbers have the look of someone who probably had a fair number of days off when he was with Seattle.

All I have is my gut feel, but it does say that this trade is worth taking. You're trying to win a championship, the other guy's trying to finish respectably (a first-timer or just a green owner?). Like I said, I believe the upside of what's being offered to you is higher than the upside of what you'd be giving away. You can't win a league without taking a risk, unless you're in my league and only three of ten owners have any idea what they're doing.

[MallRat]

23. This is a champions' league.

Everyone in the league was a champion last year, so these owners are pretty on top of things.

Houston is 5 games out of the wild card... I wish I could wait a few more days to see if they throw in the towel before the trading deadline, but I need to decide on this trade tonight.

I'm starting to come around on this.

-MR

[Commendatori]

24. I hope only the best for you, and my advice is to take it.

Sir Black's note on quantity versus quality is a good one. You only need two months of health. If these guys stay on course and healthy, your team improves. If not, it was worth the shot - not doing it would have your team's potential lower than it would be post-trade.

Besides, it never hurts to have a little wiggle room on your roster. I like to draft star backups and keep them for a week or two at a time. I did that with Hollandsworth this year and it paid off well when Sosa was out.

You know how some fantasy football owners drop a team defense and pick up another based an NFL defense's opponent for that week (example, drafting the Giants only to play against the Redskins because Wuerffel was starting)? I like to do that, and I like to leave a floating spot on my baseball roster to do the same. If you swap an extra player or two for that package, you've got a floating spot. Strange as it sounds, if you've got your roster filled with better-than-average players and no wiggle room, moves become agonizing when they're necessary, whereas it's a no-brainer if there's one floating spot. Sounds stupid, but it's easier on your nerves to manage that way.

I don't expect Guillen to maintain his current pace, but Sheets will, Berkman's money and A-Rod is bank.

[sir_captain]

15. You'd be crazy not to take it

Sheets is the real deal and you're trading quantity for quality...do it without giving it a second thought...

[MallRat]

16. 4 in favor, 3 opposed.

I'm glad the DU community is as conflicted as I am. :-)

[indigobusiness]

19. I'd make the trade in a heartbeat and I despise A-Rod

Don't get overly concerned about depth. You never can tell who will get hurt. Depth can be deceiving.
Roll them bones.

[sangh0]

21. My fantasy baseball advice

consists of nothing more than "There are better things to fantasize about than baseball"

[toddzilla]

22. lol, i was going to say that.. and

my baseball fantasy consists of teachers being paid 12 million for a 5 year contract, and baseball players having to take winter jobs to support themselves.

[MallRat]

25. I DID IT.

It's like jumping out of a plane... without testing your parachute first.

:wow:

Oh, boy... I hope I don't regret this. :-)

[Donkeyboy75]

26. Hey, none of the guys you were giving away will play any better,

but Sheets gets hurt every year. Pitchers will remember again to throw Choi breaking balls, so he won't hit a lick either. Good move.

On edit: Where the hell did I get Choi from? Anyway, Ortiz is better than the two 1B's you gave away...