DU Texans: Does that wackjob Kinky Friedman really have a chance???

[Taverner]

I mean - the guy ain't no liberal. Liberals or progressives don't call the Katrina victims "crackheads and thugs."

[Texasgal]

1. Unfortunately...

He DOES have a chance. It's sick. :(

[MrCoffee]

3. Does he? I moved from TX in March, and haven't really followed the race,

but it seemed back then that he was a novelty act. Has he gained traction?

[Texasgal]

4. Just this morning I saw

the latest poll.

He is running neck and neck with Governa' Good hair.....

[MrCoffee]

6. How's Bell polling? If Kinky's taking votes from Perry, more power to him

[Texasgal]

7. Bell is in the bottom.

It really sucks that so many liberals support Kinky. I cannot believe it myself.

Strayhorn and Chris Bell and running neck and neck. Then it's Kinky and adios Mo'Fo. :(

[kay1864]

12. Neck and neck? Not according to the most recent polls....

Pollster.com has this average of the last 5 polls:
Perry 33%
Bell 22%
Friedman 21%

http://www.pollster.com/polls/?state=TX&race=governor_race

Their most recent Zogby poll (9/25) has:
Perry 33%
Bell 22%
Friedman 19%

Perry is trending downward, Bell is trending upward, Friedman only slightly upward. But it doesn't appear to be a big enough trend to prevent a Perry win on Nov 7.

Do they have runoffs in Texas? Does one candidate have to have 50%+?

[NoPasaran]

20. No runoff in this race

Whoever gets the most votes wins.

The good news is that Chris Bell is more and more establishing himself as the main challenger to Perry. A lot of observers think that whoever is in second place in late October during our early voting has a good chance of peeling away enough support from the other challengers to win the election. Carole 4names is going nowhere and Kinky is doing his best to prove to everyone how unfit he is to serve as governor, so Bell actually has a shot.

And if any of you out-of-staters have a few dollars burning a hole in your pocket, visit Chrisbell.com and add a little cowbell.

[kay1864]

22. Dang, too bad

A runoff might mean Friedman voters switching to Bell.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for Bell. He might pull it off.

[NoPasaran]

23. Actually, good

I don't know of anyone who thinks that Bell could win in a two person race. But the winner in this election is going to get somewhere between 35-40% of the vote, and that is achievable for Bell.

[Czolgosz]

25. Real polls generally show Perry 1st, Bell 2nd, Kinky 3rd, Strayhorn 4th

Here are 18 polls conducted by reputable polling firms.

None of these polls show Kinky "neck and neck" with Perry (generally, the six polls since July show Kinky in third place with one fourth place poll and a couple tied-for-second place showings).

All 6 polls since July show Bell in second place.

There is only one poll that shows any candidate in second place but within the margin of error for Perry's polling number, and that candidate is Bell.

[ceile]

2. Nah.

He's all hat and no cattle. He's 3rd in all the polls. People are getting REALLY sick of hearing the racist shit that comes out of his mouth. It's making people realize that he has no platform and truly is an entertainer not a politician.

[Texasgal]

5. Unfortunately...

there are many,many LIBS that support him. Right here in Austin! Unbeliveable.

[ceile]

8. I know.

Very sad. I got a fawning email from my cousin about Kinky and I really laid into her.
I hate seeing all the antiBush stickers and then seeing a Kinky "K" right next to 'em. People are just taken in by the whole "something different-third party" crap he spews!

[Texasgal]

9. I think people REALLY wanna see a

"crazy" governor type thing... you know the whole "romance" of Texas politics. It's stupid.

He is a racist piece of crap that has NO business in the mansion. I just wish that people could see that! :(

[tigereye]

10. I always thought his comments were jokes

albeit not PC ones.... as someone who loves his books, I admies him. But it's seems unlikely he will be governor any time soon.

But it is Texas and they have strange politics there, as you know. ;)

[Bridget Burke]

24. Yes, Kinky's a humorist.

I saw him play with his Texas Jewboys many times, back in the day. I've enjoyed his novels & his column in Texas Monthly.

But helping a Republican retain the governorship is NOT FUNNY!

[tigereye]

29. But helping a Republican retain the governorship is NOT FUNNY!

true.

[Czolgosz]

26. Which of these statements was a joke?

1. "The musicians and artists have mostly moved back to New Orleans now. The crackheads and the thugs have decided to stay. They want to stay here. I think they got their hustle on, and we need to get ours."

2. "The crackheads and thugs who remain in Houston after Katrina happen to be black; that's fact" followed a few days later by "I am not a racist, I am a realist. ... I never said what color their skin was. .... I'm smarter than that."

3. "All of these politicians are afraid of offending Hispanics. I want the border off the evening news until we get something resolved," but later "I want the border on the nightly news every night."

4. "I am going to see nondenominational prayer and the Ten Commandments put back in the schools."

5. Discussing the reason why Kinky lost his last political election when he ran as a Republican "my inability to appeal to the religious right … torpedoed my candidacy."

6. "I've been stoned a lot of times... And I don't regret any of it."

7. "I am not anti-death penalty," but later (and under oath) "let's do away with the death penalty," and still later "I think there are people who need to die."

8. "I'm not a liberal, believe me. I'm a compassionate redneck, far more conservative than I am liberal."

9. "Well, actually, I agree with most of {Bush's} political positions overseas, his foreign policy. … I basically think he played a poor hand well after September 11. What he’s been doing in the Near East and in the Middle East, he’s handling that well, I think."

10. "I voted for Gore," but when Kinky’s Kerr County voting records confirmed that he voted only in the 2004 general election but not in any other election since 1994, and that Kinky had lied about voting for Gore, Kinky said "The voting record doesn't look strong, but my voting record is better than Dick Cheney's."

[tigereye]

28. have you ever read his books or heard him speak?

some of these are definitely problematic, particularly any with a racial component.


5. Discussing the reason why Kinky lost his last political election when he ran as a Republican "my inability to appeal to the religious right … torpedoed my candidacy."

6. "I've been stoned a lot of times... And I don't regret any of it." this one could cover a lot of musicians for heaven's sake.

I dunno, these are kinda funny if you know how salacious he can be. Check his song catalog and get back to me.

[khashka]

11. Probably not

He's a little too weird for most people - mostly because of his wicked sense of humour, which is rarely politically correct.

I think he's just in it to shake things up.

Khash.

[Bucky]

17. He's in it to sell CDs, books, & Kinky. He'll be successful. Upshot is...

He'll help keep Perry in office another four years.

[Czolgosz]

13. Kinky Friedman in his own words (with links) for all "liberal" Kinky fans

To punish criminals we should "throw them in prison and throw away the key and make them listen to a Negro talking to himself," and then he explained that "Negro ... is a charming word."



"You folks know the Friedman family motto now: The Jews own the world, the Catholics run it, Protestants work it, and the Niggers and Mexicans enjoy it, basically, that's what they've done."



"I was run over by a bookmobile coming to the show this evening. They took me to the Ben Talb hospital now- when I came to the doctor told me, 'Kinky, we've had to give you a transfusion with the blood of a person of the Negro persuasion.' I said, 'well that's moderately unpleasant.' He said, 'well yes Kinky there's a good side to this, too. There's some good fringe benefits. Your welfare check will start coming in next month and your penis just grew 12 inches so these are some things you should think about...'"



"I went to a bowling alley. I couldn't go bowling, there were no bowling balls. The people here throw 'em all in the sea, thought they were nigger eggs…thought they were nigger eggs."



"I often encourage young people to go ahead and get into politics themselves. You see, I don't like young people, and if they become involved in that worthless tar baby that is politics, the more chance there is that maybe they'll leave me alone."



"The musicians and artists have mostly moved back to New Orleans now. The crackheads and the thugs have decided to stay. They want to stay here. I think they got their hustle on, and we need to get ours."



"The crackheads and thugs who remain in Houston after Katrina happen to be black; that's fact" followed a few days later by "I am not a racist, I am a realist. ... I never said what color their skin was. .... I'm smarter than that."



"All of these politicians are afraid of offending Hispanics. I want the border off the evening news until we get something resolved," but later "I want the border on the nightly news every night."


"My immigration policy is 'Remember the Alamo.'"


"Native Americans believe you can't really own land, a horse or a waterfall. The only thing they believe you can really own is a casino."



"I am going to see nondenominational prayer and the Ten Commandments put back in the schools."



"I'm not pro-life, and I'm not pro-choice. I'm pro-football."



"If you don't love Jesus, go to hell."



Discussing the reason why Kinky lost his last political election when he ran as a Republican "my inability to appeal to the religious right … torpedoed my candidacy."



"I've been stoned a lot of times... And I don't regret any of it. ... I quit doing cocaine when Bob Marley fell out of my left nostril."


"I am not anti-death penalty," but later (and under oath) "let's do away with the death penalty," and still later "I think there are people who need to die."



"I'm not a liberal, believe me. I'm a compassionate redneck, far more conservative than I am liberal."



"I was for Bush in 2004. He's a good man trapped in a Republican's body."



"Well, actually, I agree with most of political positions overseas, his foreign policy. … I basically think he played a poor hand well after September 11. What he’s been doing in the Near East and in the Middle East, he’s handling that well, I think."



"I voted for Gore," but when Kinky’s Kerr County voting records confirmed that he voted only in the 2004 general election but not in any other election since 1994, and that Kinky had lied about voting for Gore, Kinky said "The voting record doesn't look strong, but my voting record is better than Dick Cheney's."


"All the little issues you're talking about are all (expletive). It's all (expletives). That's the key. Okay, I mean, you can talk about, 'And I would deregulate this; and my plans is to give a seven percent raise on the textbook.' It's all (expletive) because the people who are doing this are crooks and they're corrupt and they don't give a (expletive) about the people of Texas. That's the truth."



"I'm still not sure I want to be governor."

[Taverner]

14. Thanks

This should be reposted for all liberal Kinky fans...

[tigereye]

15. some of those are pretty scary

but to be fair, about half of em sound like Bill Maher....

[Czolgosz]

18. Bill Maher would ALSO make a shitty governor. If Kinky was running for his

own HBO special, I could see supporting him, but he's running for governor. And he's running to the right of Republican Rick Perry on abortion, immigration, the Iraq War, school prayer, etc, etc., etc.

Kinky is a NIGHTMARE, and when we wake up on November 8, Kinky will have sufficiently divided the strong anti-incumbent vote so that Perry will likely be re-elected with about 35% of the vote unless we DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT NOW.

[tigereye]

19. unfortunately, elections have become so contentious

and so few people actually vote, that there seem to be few checks and balances on folks who have no business running....

we have Lynn Swann running for Governor, although he seems a bit more sane, than Kinky. But why should being a football player in the 70s ( and a great one, no doubt) qualify him to run for Governor of a very large, or any state, for that manner?

[Bucky]

27. bookmarking

[madinmaryland]

16. Imus has been supporting this guy for some time.

If you read post #10, that would explain why. Sounds like he is Imus' type of guy. Bigoted.

[Czolgosz]

21. Kinky has ZERO chance of winning but EVERY chance of re-electing Perry

65% of Texas voters will support someone other than Perry, and Perry will get 35% of the vote.

James Werner (the Libertarian) will get near 3%.

How the remaining 62% of the electorate votes will determine whether Perry gets re-elected or not.

Bell will finish between 25% and 40%. Gene Kelly, the notorious mistaken-name-identification Democratic perennial candidate who occasionally gets on the ballot and then does nothing else, would get about 25% in a four-way race given that he gets almost a third of the vote in a two-way race and most of his support is from the 23% of Texas non-presidential-year voters who generally vote the straight-party Democratic ticket. A good base Democratic consolidator, like Judge Margaret Mirabal in 2002, would get about 40% of the vote in a four-way race given that top statewide Democrats in Texas can get about 46% in two-way races in non-presidential years.

If Bell loses too much of the Democratic base to Kinky or Strayhorn, he'll trend toward 25% and Perry will win. If Bell wins just 90% of what top statewide Democrats usually win in non-presidential years, he'll finish with around 40% of the vote and he'll win.

Given that Perry probably cannot be driven much lower than his 35% base, and Bell cannot be driven much lower than his 25% base, and Werner will get about 3%, that leaves 37% as unaligned voters who will not likely vote for Perry, but it is not enough to boost Kinky or Strayhorn over the top. If Kinky (or Strayhorn) got only 5% of the unaligned non-Perry voters, and Strayhorn (or Kinky) got 32%, and Bell got none, that would still not be enough for Strayhorn (or Kinky) to beat Perry.

The ONLY way to beat Perry is if Bell gets at least a third of the 32% of the unaligned non-Perry voters. For that to happen, Kinky and Strayhorn must not combine to capture any more than 26% of the vote. If only a few of the Democrat-leaning voters who currently support Kinky and Strayhorn switched to Bell, we might very well see these numbers on election day:

36% - Bell
35% - Perry
13% - Strayhorn
13% - Friedman
_3% - Werner

Every other possibility is a Perry re-election.

[Texasgal]

31. Great POST!

I am so tired of all of this crap! Kinky really put the screws to us dems. :(

[Haole Girl]

30. He doesn't have a chance, IMHO

However, just enough votes are split now, I'm afraid Rick Perry has enough of a majority to get re-elected. So the Repugs in Texas continue their stronghold...*sigh*