These tornadoes were not global warming!

[RL3AO]

We won't know the actual number of confirmed tornadoes for a few days, but this was not a record setting outbreak. The problem was the storms hit populated areas and caused a high death toll. When all is said and done, it will probably end with around 50 confirmed tornadoes. While that is rare, it is not historic.

Memphis, Jackson, TN, and Nashville got hit. They got unlucky that the tornado hit a populated area instead of going 5 miles east or west and staying over country.

[texas1928]

1. DUH It's winter...

:P


:hide:

[Richard Steele]

2. M'kay.

:eyes:

[TZ]

3. lol

Yeah its ALWAYS seventy degrees in Feburary in Maryland too...
:eyes:

[RL3AO]

6. More common than you, and I think.

Between 1951 and 1970 it 60 in Baltimore 14 of those 20 years at some point in February and 6 out of 20 years it hit 70 in February.

[Fox Mulder]

4. I will pray for you.

[RL3AO]

5. I think you are interpreting as I'm saying GW isn't real.

GW is real and you are a moron if you think otherwise. I'm saying this was not that unusual of an outbreak. Its just the storms happened to hit cities and caused a high death toll. 40 tornadoes is not that unusual for an outbreak.

[darkstar]

7. Perhaps the real telling stat would be the number of

tornado breakouts, by region and severity, seen in Jan, Feb, March across the last hundred years Then see if this number has changed.

It would obviously not prove GW caused them if the number had trended up, but it would be in line w/ predictions; conversely, while many of us simply do not remember tornadoes in winters during our childhoods, to prove that they have always existed in these months would mean that GW was most certainly not "forcing" these events.

[RL3AO]

10. We can't

We've only had some kind of radar since the 50s, and a large spotter network wasn't developed until the late 80s and it has expanded greatly. The NWS sends out team to look at all damage reports to decide if it was winds or a tornado. Sometimes 150 of a years tornadoes are EF0s that were on the ground for a few hundred feet in a cornfield. Thats the main reason why the past 10 years have had the most tornadoes. Those were almost never spotted before the late 80s. With temps, we have data for cities going back 150 years if not longer. With tornadoes, we have accurate data going back 15 years...at best.

[darkstar]

11. Well, this is an intersting problem then

Inflation adjusted damages from wind probably won't work either, what with growing communities, housing prices, etc.

How about this? Dendrological studies. Storm tracks and dclining intensity as hurricanes they moved inland can be recreated from hurricanes going back 150 years. Branch, limb, and twig snap from main trunk are recorded in rings. It has been used in Louisiana to point out how much further inland storms move in our era now that the protective buffer of wetland has narrowed.

So, perhaps use historical record to determine where intense storms hit areas with still standing old growth stands. Extent of denuding could be determined by ring record matched to year/event. Certainly newspapers recorded the occurrence of destructive storms in 1920 and we could backtrack to reconstruct intensity?

[RL3AO]

12. The intense tornadoes are known. It is the weak ones that are not.

Examples.

May 2007 Outbreak:
Total 126
EF0 62
EF1 43
EF2 15
EF3 5
EF4 0
EF5 1

Late-March 2007 Outbreak:
Total 81
EF0 46
EF1 20
EF2 10
EF3 5
EF4 0
EF5 0


February 2007 Outbreak:
Total 57
EF0 22
EF1 20
EF2 9
EF3 3
EF4 3
EF5 0



June 1984 outbreak in Wisconsin
Total 46
EF0 4
EF1 13
EF2 23
EF3 4
EF4 1
EF5 1

August 1969 outbreak in Minnesota
Total 13
EF0 1
EF1 0
EF2 3
EF3 8
EF4 1
EF5 0


Obviously that is just a quick snap shot. But with modern outbreaks, 40-60% of confirmed tornadoes are EF0s. If you look back before you had spotters everywhere, there would usually be more strong tornadoes than EF0s, because no one saw them.

[SPKrazy]

8. Rush, is that you????

:shrug:

I'm cold, I need a blanket

[TheMightyFavog]

9. It's obvious isn't it?

Posideon is royally pissed off at the South fort some reason.

:P

[S n o w b a l l]

13. Whatever...

but, I can't ever remember being without electricity all night from thunderstorms in February.