Major severe weather outbreak today (Monday)

[RL3AO]

I'm not sure if this has been posted as I have been avoiding DU because of all the crap being thrown in GDP.

Anyway, today is shaping up to be a possible historic outbreak (again).

Newest outlook (I expect it to be upgraded to high risk at 7 am CT)



An insane Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) from the NWS in Jackson, MS.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCLUDING TORNADOES...

DISCUSSION: THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
LOOK VERY OMINOUS! NEW 00Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THE PREV RUNS ON TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. IF ANY
THING...IT IS A TAD STRONGER AS THE SFC LOW IS DEEPER...THUS MAKING
THE LLJ A TAD STRONGER. I`M NOT SURPRISED THE SFC LOW IS A BIT
DEEPER AND FULLY EXPECT THE 00Z GFS TO FOLLOW SUIT. THIS IS TOO MUCH
OF A POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO KEEP PRESSURE >1006-1009MB. I CAN EVEN
SEE PRESSURE GET LOWER THAN WHAT THE NAM/EURO ARE ADVERTISING WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 1000MB ACROSS THE CWA.

I`M BECOMING VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE 21-00Z WINDOW AS THE NAM/GFS
ALL INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THINGS BETTER
WITH THE NAM B/C OF THE 21Z TIME STEP. THE MAIN THING IS THEY BOTH
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE/FRONT AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LARGE FAMILY OF SUPERCELLS THAT
RAPIDLY TRACK NE INTO/ACROSS THE CWA. I DID A LOCAL SVR WX CHECKLIST
FOR MLU AT 21 USING GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GOT WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE
HIGHEST RANKING (EXTREME) WHICH IS RARE TO ACHIEVE (FEB 5 2008 ALSO
HIT IT) WHICH HISTORICALLY SUPPORTS A SIG RISK OF A HIGH END EVENT
WITH SIG TYPE TORNADOES. WHAT ALSO GETS ME CONCERNED IS WHERE THE
STORMS INITIATE...SW TO CENTRAL LA. THEY THEN WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ALMOST NNE INTO OUR W/SW CWA. THIS GIVES ANY SUPERCELL TIME TO
MATURE AND BECOME LONG LIVED. THOSE ARE THE WORST AS FEB 5 HAS
SHOWN. I CAN REALLY SEE A CORRIDOR ALONG THE TRACE AND ABOUT 50
MILES EITHER SIDE OF THAT BEING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SIG
TORNADOES BETWEEN 4-9 PM. MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HISTORIC
TYPE SVR WX DAY AND ALL NEED TO BE WX CONSCIOUS.

WX = weather
SIG = significant

EDIT: Here is a link to a blog about the possible effects of global warming and tornadoes.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=910&tstamp=200802

[Haole Girl]

1. I better try to get some sleep...

looks like it's going to be a very long day tomorrow (which is actually today)!

[MnFats]

2. yes, BUT....wind chill 8 degrees here. actual temp is 23 but there is a raw 20-mph wind

from the northeast.....source of out lovely siberian air masses.


i see it's 66 in Little Rock.


i'd risk a tornado for a little of that heat.
wait, no I wouldn't.

i suppose when the cold air hits your hot air things will turn explosive down there.....


take care and keep us posted, please.

[elleng]

3. Thanks.

Forecast at weatherunderground:

http://www.wunderground.com/ndfdimage/viewimage

[From The Ashes]

4. aw crap...

I hope it doesn't move into Alabama. :( My son and his GF are visiting friends in Huntsville.

[Connonym]

5. Be careful out there

This is the strangest winter I can ever recall. It's freaky.

[cutlassmama]

6. yep. we got hail tonight. looking forward to storm chasing tomorrow.

[Raven]

7. Yup and it's heading north to my part of the world tomorrow.

They are predicting an ice storm and power outages here in SW NH tomorrow night and Wednesday.