Ok, I'm scared shitless

[LeftyFingerPop]

This economy is so fucked.

Dollar is taking a huge dive as we speak, Asian markets down badly. Tomorrow may be historic.

The Fed can't fix this shit. It is too late.

I think we are well and truly fucked.

I think it is finally going to happen, and it will happen fast.

:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

[seemunkee]

1. Don't worry

Bombing Iran will fix everything

[LeftyFingerPop]

2. I try not to get too worked up about this stuff...

but I have been watching the markets for a long time...and have never seen anything close to this.

The fed makes a rate cut on a SUNDAY??!! :wtf:

[petronius]

7. Iranian dirty-tricks are the cause of the last 7 years of economic decline

They have been waging covert economic war against us for years. It's time we taught them not to fuck with us. USA! USA! USA!

:patriot:

</freeper psychosis>

[leeroysphitz]

3. Remain Calm. All Is Well.

[LeftyFingerPop]

4. Yeah!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Brigid]

24. !!!

That was the first thing I thought of when I saw the title of your post, before I clicked on it to read it! :rofl:

Too bad this is no laughing matter.

[Connonym]

5. There's safety in numbers

I already lost my house. It IS terrifying. Over a year on the market and couldn't sell it. It's sitting empty. Houses all around town empty with foreclosure signs in the windows. I guess the only thing to do is hunker down and make a network of people who will agree to help one another out. It is scary. Very scary.

[LeftyFingerPop]

8. I am sorry you lost your home Connonym...

My area is one of the only areas in the country where the housing market is GOOD... This is because my area has been beaten down badly in the past few years because of an absolutely horrible local economy.

I have learned something from DU. I remember when I first started posting (in GD), everyone was going nuts before Katrina hit New Orleans. I was sitting here shaking my head and telling everyone to calm down, and that they were over reacting.

Well, I learned my lesson. And I also learned that while there are some basket cases here, there are also some very smart people, and I don't like what I am reading in the other forums about the economy. It kind of just confirms my gut feel.

Good luck to us all.

[Connonym]

18. Thanks

I'm not looking for people to feel sorry for me. It was one of the hardest things to go through, no doubt about that, but I feel it's important for people to see the face of who it happens to. I'm not a deadbeat, life just took a bad turn and my work situation changed. Can happen to anyone and it really bothers me to see even here on DU some people being really judgmental about it like the only people affected are people who were trying to scam the system. That's not the case with me and I really doubt it's the case with the majority of people affected. In the end though, it affects everyone because empty houses and foreclosures in your neighborhood bring down property values. All fine and good if you're prepared to stay in the same place until this passes but in the meantime if you want to sell you're kind of screwed.

[Brigid]

29. self-delete.

wrong place.

[Brigid]

31. I remember . . .

watching the Weather Channel before Katrina hit. I remember seeing that big red blob heading for the Gulf Coast and thinking, "Oh, Sh**." Point being, we need to be paying attention.

[LeftyFingerPop]

32. I was watching it too...

but I was too naive to believe that the levees would breach.

I'm not naive anymore.

Point being, I hopefully have learned to open my mind enough to give a second listen to the opinions of people that know better than I do.

:)

[BeachBaby]

6. From one Phillies fan to another (or at least I hope so)....

:hug:

I started a thread in here talking about the same thing:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=105x7572708

Doesn't look good for anyone - you're right. We're fucked.

Hey - drink one for me, will ya? There's none here at the house. Thanks. :pals:

[LeftyFingerPop]

10. OK...just read your thread...

and it is an excellent post.

I will reference my response here in your post also.

I would not take my money out of the bank.

If you are in stocks, I would wait for a bounce this week and then pare back.

I would put a portion of any saved money into gold.

I would stock up on durable goods and food.

I would limit spending as much as possible.

I am not a big baseball fan any longer...but I love the city of Philly. :) :hug:

[flvegan]

9. I disagree.

Lots of puppet strings being pulled, I think. At least as far as the gloom-n-doom that tomorrow *promises*.

Hope I'm right. Won't be happy to be wrong.

[LeftyFingerPop]

11. I hear you but...

I'm not talking about just tomorrow.

I have been going into cash slowly for weeks now, and I still feel like I have not moved fast enough.

This whole sub-prime thing...it's just not going away, and I don't think it will for awhile.

Bear Stearns freaked me out, and I think there is much more coming.

Well, we will see. If I am wrong, that will be a good thing.

[flvegan]

15. The Bear Stearns thing isn't an act of altruism.

JPMC is going to ultimately make a shitpile of money off their "bailout". I mean, c'mon, $230+ million for this HUGE firm?

The sub-prime thing is going to correct. In time. It has to. Lenders are slowly waking up to "hey, let's have a performing loan and not a $40k bath on this one, k? that's be cool!"

Plus, let's leverage our hate here. You think the economy is going to collapse on an R prez watch in an election year?

[LeftyFingerPop]

17. What bothers me is this...

Normally, when there is some kind of financial "crisis" that impacts the markets, the market will tank for a day, maybe two or three, and then finish the correction and stabilize.

This sub-prime issue...it just keeps on humming along...and I believe the reason is because it runs too deep to get a handle on quickly. Sure, the lenders can tighten their credit policies, but is it too late? What if their loan portfolio is so hosed that they cannot continue as a going concern?

As far as the Republican President saving the market...these are the types of problems that the Fed cannot fix.

The economy has a deep psychological component also...if the markets do tank badly, I can easily foresee a run on the banks.

I really hope you are correct, and as I said elsewhere, I am not an economic alarmist, but I don't like this.

[flvegan]

19. The market tanks for a day because

of the fear of the average investor bailing. Electronic trading, etc. JPMC is, ultimately, dumping a bunch of money into the game. Not 'cuz they "owe America a solid" but because it's a smart (albeit somewhat risky *investment*). That's what I look at.

Also, IMO, it's not credit policies with the lenders, but their foreclosure policies. Think of it like this:

I loan you $100 secured by a pinata full of candy corn. You agree to give me $10/month to repay it. You default. I threaten to come after your pinata full of candy corn. Problem is, I don't want a pinata full of candy corn. Matter of fact, I f'ing hate candy corn. So, rather than taking something I don't want, I talk to you, and now you give me $7.50/mo to repay the $100. I still get my money, you keep that abhorrent candy corn pinata.

[LeftyFingerPop]

21. In a past life...

I worked at a bank as a commercial credit analyst.

15 page analyzes of potential commercial borrowers.

Cash flow, balance sheet, income statement and owner's asset analysis. Complete risk analysis.

Obvious piece of shit potential loans would go to committee and get approved. Then the businesses would fold and become completely non-performing.

Loan after loan went like this...proper analysis, proper risk analysis, and then bad risks would get approved anyway. There was no negotiating of payments, because the businesses folded, and then, the bank would have to go after some crappy collateral that they would have difficulty selling off.

So anyway, the bank eventually folded.

I'm just envisioning this happening now, only on a larger scale with consumer lendees.

Good discussion by the way.

[flvegan]

25. Think stop-loss.

Commercial v personal/individual loans is tough because of the collateral issue. Like a dead person taking out a loan. Personal liability somewhat goes out the door, short of any deficiency or personal liability.

I'm in the title/closing business, and I spent years in the foreclosure/loss mit/default res biz. I honestly think that (to put it in my terms) the lenders are getting more out of the vigorish business and getting into the "how do we make money on a performing loan" business as they have come to FINALLY realize that the real estate business sucks in comparison. I think they'll tighten loan policies as damage control, but I also think they will, at some point, loosen f/c policies because, again, they're lenders...not Century 21.

Agreed, good discussion.

[LeftyFingerPop]

27. That makes sense to me...

:thumbsup:

Well thought out and makes good sense.

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

I knew this was the type of work you do... My banking experience is from 12 years ago.

You are much closer than me as to the way things stand today.

BTW...transferred two Border Collie pups today...wanted to bring one home. :) They were relinquished by their owners because they could not handle the energy of the dogs. This happens so many times...people do not really realize the energy requirements of a BC.

[flvegan]

28. Thanks, but...Priorities! Thank you for your work, again.

Tough to not bring them all home, isn't it? Had to say that first, before going back to the topic at hand.

As for being closer? We're all speculating until the final bell rings. Good to hash out the potentials, though.

[LeftyFingerPop]

30. As I sit here and think about this...

Maybe the market will close up tomorrow, but if it does, I'm out. I think one thing we can both agree on is that volatility will continue. I'm pushing 50, and I can't watch it...

In fact, lt probably will close higher, because I am ALWAYS wrong about the market. Always. You can count on it.

If anyone wants to know how to invest, post here, read my advice, then do the opposite.

And thank you for your work too flvegan.

[LynzM]

33. Thank you and flvegan both for your discussion

I love that I learn things in the Lounge. I'm awfully scared of what's coming, too, and we're talking about moving money into Euros, since the plan is to bail out of the U.S. in August. We'll see how quickly we can get that done. I begin to wish I'd already done it last week, though, yeah.

[harmonicon]

16. I think probably not for a long while

My girlfriend is moving to San Diego this year to start a doctoral program. She and her parents were going to buy a condo together their so they'd have somewhere to stay when they visit, but also as an investment; the idea being, my girlfriend would pay what she would have paid in rent towards the mortgage and he mom would pay the rest. Five or so years on, they'd sell it and at least that would have been free rent for those years. Just this week they scrapped the idea, because they aren't confidant that they wouldn't lose loads of money doing that. Now they'll wait to see how the elections go and if something can be done to save the economy. I don't think it can - I think we're fucked.

I remember two years into Bush looking at how shitty things were getting and saying something like 'if it stays this bad, can you imagine if it keeps going like this for six more years? It will be like the great depression'. Well, it has, and it is.

Thank god I get paid in British Pounds, but that's on a fixed contract that's up in a bit over two years, then I'm back to the poor ol' USA.

[Pierre.Suave]

12. What did I miss today?

Something big? I have been out, what happened today?

[LeftyFingerPop]

13. Asian markets tanking 4 to 5%...

Dollar tanking hard against the Yen.

Emergency Fed Sunday rate cut.

[krispos42]

14. My tax refund is going to zero out the credit card

If this does happen, It will be with them having no leverage on me.

Unless I lose my job, of course, but they just had a round of layoffs and I'm still there.

The stuff my division makes goes to Europe, mostly, and those evil, evil, evil socialist democracies still have most of their shit in order, so demand has been quite steady.

And in two months, another $900 from the government to make sure everthing says paid off.

[Tektonik]

20. I believe we are in trouble, but I feel there are more failsafes to go through before we tank hard

I believe financial institutions will collude further to stave off a stock market crash. Hopefully the next administration cuts war funding asap so that we can use the funds to subsidize American's fuel needs (whether it be a gas credit, an alternative energy credit, etc.). We also direly need a properly federal healthcare system before the next generation ends up living shorted than the current one is.

[SPKrazy]

22. you give the fed too much credit

just drink

sleep

get yer shotgun out

and don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes :P

[lligrd]

23. Not Really A Surprise

We knew * would f*** it up the day he was selected. The surprise is them holding it off this long. I'm not scared, it needed to happen. People need to wake up. Hopefully, this will do it.

[FloridaJudy]

26. I've already checked out all the local farmer's markets

Because I think the days of cheap, 3000 mile produce are ending. Hell, I've already lost my house and my retirement money, and I think it's just going to get worse.

I'm stocking up on pitchforks and torches.