|
Edited on Tue Apr-01-08 01:42 PM by whoisalhedges
NL EAST
Mets 92-70
Braves 83-79
Phillies 84-78
Nationals 81-81
Marlins 65-97
Best bet to win 100 games: Mets
Best bet to lose 100 games: Marlins, by a long shot
Best bet to exceed expectations: Nationals
Best bet to be worse than expected: Yep, the Marlins could even be worse than I think. They really suck. Like, 2003 Tigers kind of suck.
What do you get when you take a team that won 185 games over the past two years, and add the best pitcher in baseball? The 2008 Mets. Johan Santana gives an already outstanding core (Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran) the ace that trumps all aces. If Pedro's healthy, this team could win 100. It's still hard to count out the Braves and Phils, especially in the wild card race in an extremely competitive National League. Philadelphia has the bats to beat anyone (2006 and 2007 MVPs Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, not to mention the best second baseman in baseball, Chase Utley), and Bobby Cox has been known to make a little magic in Atlanta over the past couple of decades. Absent another historic September swoon, though, I don't see either challenging the Mets.
In the second division, we have Washington and Florida. The Nationals are half of a good team. They have a decent lineup, but the pitching leaves something to be desired. A lot to be desired. Now, what to say about the Florida Marlins? They're the best bet in all of baseball to lose 100 games this year. They have a true talent in shortstop Hanley Ramirez -- a true hitting talent, that is. He could DH for most American League teams; but he couldn't play shortstop for any of them. The Marlins lost Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers, which improves their left-side defense, but costs them about 50 runs a year on offense. They lost 90 last year, and will lose more this year.
NL CENTRAL
Brewers 89-71
Cubs 87-75
Reds 81-81
Astros 78-84
Pirates 72-90
Cardinals 71-91
Best bet to win 100 games: none
Best bet to lose 100 games: Cardinals
Best bet to exceed expectations: Reds
Best bet to be worse than expected: Cardinals
I'm not just being a homer here. The Brewers will win the division. I'll share three arguments that have been made in favor of the Cubs and the "sleeper favorite" Reds, and tell you why they don't work:
1) The Cubs won the division last year, and only got better with the addition of Kosuke Fukudome.
They may have gotten better, but they weren't that great to begin with. They spent half the season beating up on weak competition, and their pitching remains suspect. Fukudome, meanwhile, looks like another Hideki Matsui -- fine player, sure, but hardly a superstar.
2) The Reds have a great core of young talent, and are a team on the upswing.
This should be true. However, Dusty Baker will play Corey Patterson and Scott Hatteberg over Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. He'll also manage pitchers like Dusty Baker, resulting in subpar seasons from Harang and Arroyo (if not ruining their carrers -- c.f. Prior, Mark and Wood, Kerry).
3) The Brewers played above their heads last year, and have nowhere to go but down.
This is the most asinine assessment I've heard. Maybe Ryan Braun won't hit .330 again, maybe Prince Fielder won't bash 50 homers. Still, they're 24 years old this season, Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy are 25, Corey Hart (the best right fielder in the league last year) is 26, Bill Hall is 28 -- the players at the heart of this lineup are just entering their peak seasons, and will continue to deliver a ton of runs for the Brewers until free agancy takes them to greener bankrolls. They have an outstanding core of young pitching talent (Yovanni Gallardo, Manny Parra, Carlos Villanueva), and the defense took a quantum leap forward with Mike Cameron (and Tony Gwynn, until Cameron comes back from suspension) in center and Braun moved far, far away from the hot corner. If Ben Sheets is healthy -- yes, I know that's a HUGE "if" -- this team could be the second-best in the league (they're not better than the Mets, yet).
The Cubs are a good team, but not a great one. The Reds have a ton of talent, but they also have a manager who values being old over being good, and a management culture that doesn't see the value of a left fielder who hits 40 home runs and draws 100 walks EVERY FREAKIN' YEAR. The Astros have one of the best pitchers (Roy Oswalt) and one of the best hitters (Lance Berkman) in the league, yet the rest of the team is weak enough to keep them below .500.
The Pirates have finally gotten out from under the shadow of Cam Bonifay, but they're still not a good team. Better, yes, and they have quality pitching -- but they just won't score nearly enough runs to compete in this division. And two years after winning the World Series, the Cardinals are so bad that they'll lose almost as many games as the Marlins and Giants; despite having Albert Pujols, the best hitter in the major leagues. Who is, of course, hurt.
NL WEST
Diamondbacks 88-74
Dodgers 87-75
Padres 82-80
Rockies 79-83
Giants 70-92
Best bet to win 100 games: Diamondbacks
Best bet to lose 100 games: Giants
Best bet to exceed expectations: Rockies
Best bet to be worse than expected: Rockies. Screw it.
If the D'Backs won the World Series, would it make a sound? Okay, I don't think they'll go that far, but this is a damn good team. Strong hitters (and a park that favors their skills), a Cy Young award winner (Brandon Webb, who may have deserved a second last year), and a pitcher (Micah Owings) who hits like a first baseman. The Dodgers could compete, too -- actually, any team in the West not named "The San Francisco Giants" have a chance. Los Angeles boasts an outstanding rotation and bullpen in a sweet park for pitchers. Their lineup isn't great, but they won't need to score a lot of runs to win at Chavez Ravine. They do have one of the best catchers in baseball; and they've got Joe Torre, who's already proven his value to his new team by opting to start punchy Andre Ethier over slap-hitting speedster Juan Pierre.
The Padres return with great pitching and mediocre hitting in the best pitchers' park in baseball. However, whereas the Dodgers will manage to score enough runs to stay in this till the end, I don't think the Padres will. Both Los Angeles and San Diego could win more games than I expect them to.
The biggest variable in the division (maybe in all of Major League Baseball) is Coors Field. I'll be honest, I have no idea how the hell to project the Rockies. Yes, they went to the Series last year, but they could lose 85 games this year. For that matter, they could win 90. I pretty much just threw a dart at some numbers to come up with their projected record for 2008. And I don't think they have the talent of the D'Backs, Dodgers, or Pads.
There's no nice way of saying this: the Giants are a horrible, horrible team with a couple of good pitchers.
AL EAST
Yankees 93-69
Red Sox 91-71
Blue Jays 85-77
Rays 82-80
Orioles 72-90
Best bet to win 100 games: Yankees. No, Red Sox. No, Yankees.
Best bet to lose 100 games: Orioles
Best bet to exceed expectations: Blue Jays
Best bet to be worse than expected: Yanks. I have them picked to win, they've got nowhere to go but down.
A lot of people are saying this is the year th Evil Empire goes in the tank. Sorry, Yankee-haters, but it just ain't so. Sure, Joe Girardi's going to be relying on unproven young pitchers, but what about Josh Beckett's back? What about Curt Schilling's walker? You want to talk about relying on inexperienced youth, I'd say the second most reliable Boston starter this year is going to be rookie Clay Buchholz. Daisuke Matsuzaka will continue to pitch solidly, and the Red Sox' bullpen will shine. The back end of the rotation, however, will be a question mark, and New York will likely have better starting pitching.
Both the Yankees and the BoSox will trot out some impressive young players. Robinson Cano may well bring a batting title home to the Bronx, and rookie Jacoby Ellsbury will have an immediate impact in Boston. That said, a lot of the big hitters on both teams are just getting older. Don't count on another .338 average from Jorge Posada, that ain't in the cards. Manny Ramirez will continue to slide, and a repeat performance by Mike Lowell is extremely unlikely.
All that said, the Yankees and Red Sox are still two of the five best teams in baseball. The real tricky player in this division is Toronto. The Blue Jays have the talent, especially on the mound. The question is, can they stay healthy? With a little luck, it's possible the Jays can knock the Yanks or Sox out of #2. It's not likely, but it's possible.
Speaking of the possible and impossible, do I actually have Tampa Bay projected to end up with a winning record? Yes, I do. I don't know if that's because of the strength of their team (which really could be good in a couple of years) or the brutality that is Baltimore baseball, but I see the not-so-devilish Rays playing around .500 ball, with a good change to break that barrier for the first time in their existence. Meanwhile, the Orioles could hire a Tijuana burro-show ass to run the show, and it wouldn't hurt their record any.
AL CENTRAL
Indians 90-72
Tigers 88-74
Twins 80-82
White Sox 75-87
Royals 73-89
Best bet to win 100 games: Indians
Best bet to lose 100 games: none
Best bet to exceed expectations: Twins
Best bet to be worse than expected: Tigers
Even with the addition of Miguel Cabrera's golden bat and iron glove, I don't see the Tigers passing the Tribe this year. They just don't have consistent pitching after Jeremy Bonderman; Magglio Ordonez and (especially) Gary Sheffield and Ivan Rodriguez are on the wrong side of old; and their bullpen could prove ghastly. Cleveland, meanwhile, has Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez, reigning Cy Young award winner C.C. Sabathia (and #4 in the voting Fausto Carmona), and a much stronger pen (despite Eric Wedge's odd fascination with keeping Joe Borowski as closer). Travis Hafner is poised for a rebound year, and Asdrubal Cabrera will be with the team all season. The corners aren't as productive, and we don't know which Jhonny Peralta will show up -- but even the Indians' weakest hitters will feast on Detroit's relievers.
The Twins have some solid players, but not enough to mount a serious challenge. That, and they just gave up the best pitcher in baseball. Still, they could surprise. The ChiSox and Royals are both weak teams this year, and will duke it out for the worst record in the division. I anticipate that the race for fourth place will be more exciting than the race for first.
AL WEST
Angels 83-79
Athletics 81-81
Rangers 75-87
Mariners 72-90
Best bet to win 100 games: none
Best bet to lose 100 games: None -- they'll all be busy piling up wins against the shit teams in their division.
Best bet to exceed expectations: Mariners
Best bet to be worse than expected: Angels
In baseball's weakest division, everything is a crapshoot.
I'm going to start at the bottom this time, because the big surprise is that I have the Mariners projected to lose 90 games, while several writers have picked them to win the division. Why? Eric Bedard may be a great pitcher, but this is the American League and he won't get the chance to hit -- which is really the only way he can win, as nobody else is going to be doing any hitting on this ballclub, with the exception of Ichiro! Mediocre defense and miserable offense will make losers of even the best pitchers, and I think Bedard and Felix Hernadez have a long season ahead of them. That said, I have them as my team most likely to exceed expectations -- but that has more to do with their crap division than with their crap team.
The Angels are old and overrated. They'll score some runs, they'll have some decent pitching, but they're still really not much more than a .500 ballclub. Hell, I have the A's picked to come in second, and they're in the middle of a "rebuilding" (read: uncompetitive) phase. The Rangers don't have the offense to offset what The Ballpark at Arlington will do to their pitchers.
NL ROY: Kosuke Fukudome. If Dusty Baker gets fired in April, maybe Joey Votto.
AL ROY: Jacoby Ellsbury
NL CYA: Johan Santana (what, you think I'm gonna make a stupid "sleeper" pick?)
AL CYA: Scott Kazmir (this is my stupid "sleeper" pick)
NL MVP: David Wright
AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
