Dean beats Bush by 9-points among Independents in Pa

[CMT]

Pennsylvania is a key swing state which Al Gore won in '00, but it was fairly close. Right now Bush beats all of our candidates in match-ups, but they are all within striking distance of Bush.

Howard Dean does best against Bush in the state:
Dean loses 49-43
Liberman loses 50-43
Kerry loses 50-42
Clark loses 50-41
Gep loses 51-42

Most impressively for our candidates is that they all do well with Independent voters who will decide the race.

**Dean runs best beating Bush 49-40 among indpendents--a nine point lead.

BUT all of our other candidates run well with Independents too:
Clark beats Bush by 48-43
Lieberman ties Bush 46-46
Kerry beats Bush 48-45
Gep beats Bush 47-44

**Dean also does best among union members against Bush, though Bush is running uncomfortably strongly with them.
Bush edges Dean 47-46 among union members.
Bush beats Lieberman 51-43
Bush over Kerry 48-44
Bush over Clark 48-43
Bush over Gep 50-43

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x9463.xml

[joefree1]

1. Thanks, very interesting poll

It's a long way until November. Back to work.

[Jerseycoa]

2. Thanks, very good

Can you post the MOE? I can't seem to get the link open.

[CMT]

4. yeah that link is not working

try going to this link and just choose Pennsylvania polls.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x660.xml

[Frodo]

3. Something is wrong with those numbers?

"Most impressively for our candidates is that they all do well with Independent voters who will decide the race."

They won't "decide the race" if shrub is up by 6 pts when you INCLUDE the independents.


But these numbers are either wrong, or they are very scary. PA has more Democrats than Republicans. If Dean has a nine point edge among independents BUT IS STILL DOWN SIX... that means there are WAY TOO MANY DEMOCRATS planning to vote for Bush! And he's LEADING??? among union members?

[CMT]

5. I was wondering about that too

True Philly and Pittsburgh have lots of Dems, but the middle part of the state is strongly GOP. Still I wonder if they polled more Republicans because Dean and all the rest won over 70% of Dem vote and all did well with Independents. But, GOP voters were almost 90% for Bush. This is really what has kept him going, his strong showing with his own party. When his father lost there was almost a 20% defection of Republicans. The base is staying with this Bush.

[goobergunch]

6. According to the breakdown:

Republicans go for Bush 86%-10%, Democrats go for Dean 75%-16%. and Independents go for Dean 49%-40%.

Other things I noticed:

Women are tied, 46%-46%
Philly only breaks for Dean 56%-34% (:wtf: )

[Frodo]

7. Those are pretty frightening numbers.

If true.

We're not going to win with 75% Democratic support.

[CMT]

10. once our candidate is chosen

our party will close ranks and those numbers will increase.

[CMT]

9. yes all of our candidates need to work on Philly

we should be getting over 70% there, and by election day we likely will.

Right now Dean is doing about as well as everyone else in Philly. Lieberman is doing worst getting only 50-38 over Bush. Clark is at 56-35 in Philly, Kerry at 52-35, and Gep at 53-35.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. There are more REGISTERED Democrats in PA than GOPers, but

That is a little misleading. A lot of those people registered as Democrats years ago but over the years have voted increasinly for Republican candidates. Many of this is due to cultural issues such as gun control and abortion.

If you want evidence that PA is not a Democratic state:

The majority of both house of the state legislature have Republican majorities. The district lines were drawn by a bipartisan commission.

There congressional delegation had a Republican majority BEFORE the GOP gerrymander that was passed two years ago. The old map was passed by a legislature where one chamber was controlled by Democrats and one controlled by Republicans. It was signed by a Democratic governor.

Both US Senators are Republicans.

Is Pennsylvania a Republican state? No. It has a Democratic Governor and has supported the Democratic nominee in the last four presidential elections.

Pennsylvania is niether a Democratic state nor a Republican state. It is a swing state.

[whirlygigspin]

11. union support for *

Why on earth would a union member support *?

I guess they don't like overtime pay after all

shockingly absurd

[CMT]

12. that is a good question

as it gets closer to the election I think it will change.