Texas Two-Step Vote Could Trip Up Clinton

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: Texas Two-Step Vote Could Trip Up Clinton
By JUNE KRONHOLZ
February 27, 2008; Page A10

How is this for irony: Sen. Hillary Clinton, the ultimate Democratic Party insider, is struggling in Texas, in large part because the political system is stacked against her. Opinion polls show her rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, inching up to Sen. Clinton or already passing her in Texas. But it is the complicated delegate nominating system -- the Texas two-step -- more than popular turnout that could stymie a Clinton victory Tuesday and perhaps cost the New York senator the nomination....Of the 2,025 delegates either candidate needs to win the nomination, Texas has 228. The primary, where the candidates are thought to be in a dead heat, will award 126 of those seats. Minutes after the polls close, Texas Democrats then will convene caucuses that will seat an additional 67 delegates, and here Sen. Obama's superior field operation is likely to work to his advantage. The allegiances of the 35 superdelegates, who aren't bound by the results of the primary or the caucuses, are increasingly uncertain.

Also problematic for Sen. Clinton is that party rules give fewer delegates to those parts of the state where she is most popular and more delegates to those areas where Sen. Obama is expected to win. After seven days of early voting yesterday, 10.2% of the Democratic voters in Hidalgo County, a Clinton stronghold along the Mexican border, had already cast their ballots. That is the highest turnout, by percentage, in the state so far and illustrates the enthusiasm Sen. Clinton is generating among Hispanic voters. But Hidalgo County and the surrounding Brownsville state Senate district have only three delegate votes at the convention. That is compared with eight for Austin, where Sen. Obama is favored, because party rules award convention delegates based on how many votes a state Senate district gave to the Democratic candidates in the past two statewide elections.

Texas's 35 superdelegates, not bound by the primary or caucus results, include many longtime Clinton political allies, whose support Sen. Clinton might have counted on a few weeks ago. But those votes look less certain as the momentum swings to Sen. Obama, and the role of the superdelegates draws more scrutiny. Most "don't want to be in a position of going against the people," said University of Texas political scientist Bruce Buchanan.

Sen. Clinton has focused much of her Texas campaign on the state's 8.4 million Hispanics, who account for 36% of the population, triple the African-American population. But with Texas's delegate-allocation system, that puts Sen. Clinton at a disadvantage. In 2004, Hispanics heavily favored President Bush over Democrat John Kerry, giving Hispanic areas relatively few Democratic delegates this year. El Paso, where 81% of the county is Hispanic, is part of a state Senate district that will get just three delegates. Meanwhile, in the 2006 governor's race, Houston voters, and especially blacks, turned out in big numbers for former Rep. Chris Bell, a Houston Democrat. That translates into seven delegate votes for the Houston area and six for Dallas, which also has a big African-American population.

Sen. Obama's apparent advantage in primary voting could be compounded later that evening at the party caucuses. Sen. Obama's organizational skills could turn out those caucus voters and capture a big share of the delegates elected through that second vote. Obama supporters could then influence the state's big cache of superdelegates....

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