Clinton's Blueprint for Victory

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Clinton's Blueprint for Victory

....We'll start...with the blueprint for Clinton; the Obama blueprint will follow....

THE CLINTON BLUEPRINT

1. It's National Security Stupid! -- The Clinton campaign took a big gamble with their "3 a.m. phone call" ad and they believe that it worked -- framing (finally) for voters the practical consequences if Obama wins the nomination. Exit polling conducted in Texas, where the "3 a.m. phone call" ad ran, suggested considerable movement toward Clinton among late deciders. One in five voters in Texas made up their minds in the final three days of the contest and, among that group, Clinton won by a whopping 60 percent to 39 percent margin. Not all of that is attributable to the ad alone but, according to the Clinton campaign, the commercial is rightly regarded as a catalyst for a broader debate about national security and what is at stake in the election. "The more people have at stake in this election, the better will do," predicted Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.) during a Clinton conference call yesterday. Expect the Clinton campaign to push the national security message hard over the next few weeks and, dare we say it, months.

2. Freeze the Superdelegates: The longer Clinton can keep superdelegates from hopping on board with Obama, the better chance she has of eventually winning them over. Clinton's three wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island helped assure that superdelegates will give her campaign more time to makes its case against Obama. And, the best way the Clinton campaign can keep superdelegates on the fence between now and Pennsylvania on April 22 is to push the national security message hard. The biggest fear for the Democratic establishment, which, make no mistake, is what the superdelegates represent, is somehow losing what they view as a clear shot at winning back the White House. The Clinton campaign, by raising questions about Obama's readiness to serve as commander-in-chief, is making a not-so-subtle play on the fears of superdelegates. "We have an obligation as delegates to that convention to make sure we try to figure out who will be the strongest candidate to take on John McCain and the Republican attack machine," Clinton senior adviser Harold Ickes said yesterday. Never underestimate the power of fear as a motivating factor in every level of politics -- including the battle for superdelegates.

3. The Votes to Come: Rather than look back at the states that have already cast ballots in the Democratic race, project forward to the 10 states (plus Puerto Rico and Guam) yet to vote. Bayh rolled out this talking point on Wednesday, noting that his home state of Indiana won't vote until May 6; "We have six million people in our state," said Bayh. "They have a right to be heard." The idea of ensuring that more primary votes are meaningful is a powerful one in the Democratic Party. It also enables Clinton to argue that no reasonable assessment of where the contest stands can be made until after Puerto Ricans have their say in caucuses on June 7.

4. Florida and Michigan Must Count: Speaking of making the votes count: how the Democratic National Committee decides to deal with seating the delegates from these two states could be the linchpin in the success of Clinton's strategy. While the Clinton campaign is so far refusing to speculate on how those delegates would/could be seated at the convention (or if a re-vote would be possible), gears in the two states are already moving toward some kind of solution. Govs. Jennifer Granholm (D-Mich.) and Charlie Crist (R-Fla.) released a joint statement calling it "intolerable" that the delegates of the two states will not be seated at the national convention. The DNC put out a statement late yesterday re-stating its position -- which has been the same since August -- that Florida and Michigan are free to hold re-votes and have their delegates seated. It seems unlikely -- if not entirely impossible -- that the DNC would suddenly change the nominating rules and decide to seat the delegates chosen in what it views as invalid primaries. The Clinton campaign has to hope, therefore, that the re-vote option becomes the dominant choice. If it does and if she can replicate her wins in the non-binding contests the states held earlier this year (two BIG "ifs"), Clinton might be in a position to seriously whittle down Obama's pledged delegate lead.

5. Clinton as Fighter:....(W)hat was somewhat clear after New Hampshire and what is far more clear after Tuesday night is that "Clinton as Fighter" is the image that voters -- especially women -- respond to best....

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