WSJ/NBC Poll shows little change after Pastor controversy; Dems tied, Clinton negatives up

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: March 27, 2008
Democrats Are Tied in New Poll
Prolonged Contest Is Starting to Wear On Clinton, Obama
By JACKIE CALMES

WASHINGTON -- The racially charged debate over Barack Obama's relationship with his longtime pastor hasn't much changed his close contest against Hillary Clinton, or hurt him against Republican nominee-in-waiting John McCain, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC polls with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, called the latest poll a "myth-buster" that showed the pastor controversy is "not the beginning of the end for the Obama campaign."

But both Democrats, and especially New York's Sen. Clinton, are showing wounds from their prolonged and increasingly bitter nomination contest, which could weaken the ultimate nominee for the general-election showdown against Sen. McCain of Arizona. Even among women, who are the base of Sen. Clinton's support, she now is viewed negatively by more voters than positively for the first time in a Journal/NBC poll.

The latest survey has the Democratic rivals in a dead heat, each with 45% support from registered Democratic voters....

While Sen. Clinton still leads among white Democrats, her edge shrank to eight points (49% to 41%) from 12 points in early March (51% to 39%). That seems to refute widespread speculation -- and fears among Sen. Obama's backers -- that he would lose white support for his bid to be the nation's first African-American president over the controversy surrounding his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. of Chicago. Had that erosion happened, party leaders' reassessment of Sen. Obama's electability could have tipped the race to Sen. Clinton's favor. Weathering the episode could strengthen his standing among the party leaders nationwide -- the superdelegates -- whose votes are likely to break the impasse.

Beyond the nomination race, in hypothetical matchups for November's election Sen. Obama still edges Sen. McCain 44% to 42%. That is nearly the same result as in the early March poll, before videos of Mr. Wright's most fiery sermons spread over the Internet. But Sen. Clinton, who likewise had a narrow advantage over Sen. McCain in the earlier survey, trails in this one by two points, 44% to his 46%....

***

Also, fewer voters hold positive views of Sen. Clinton than did so just two weeks ago in the Journal/NBC poll5. Among all voters, 48% have negative feelings toward her and 37% positive, a decline from a net positive 45% to 43% rating in early March. While 51% of African-American voters have positive views, that is down 12 points from earlier this month, before the Wright controversy....

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120657171729866843.html

[leftofcool]

1. Is this the poll before or after the newest Wright problem?

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Conducted March 24-25. nt

[leftofcool]

4. new controversy started this morning....just wondering

[DeepModem Mom]

5. I heard that mentioned on MSNBC. nt

[HarveyBrooks]

3. Wow...

The latest survey has the Democratic rivals in a dead heat, each with 45% support from registered Democratic voters....

You sure wouldn't know it from DU. Seems like it's 90% for Obama here.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. There are obviously a lot of factors affecting the race, but I think the press also...

low-balls the fact that, whatever the projected outcome, this race, among Dem voters, is a close one.