North Carolina Can Change Race Dynamic

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: North Carolina Can Change Race Dynamic
North Carolina Can Change Race Dynamic
By NICK TIMIRAOS
March 28, 2008; Page A4

RALEIGH, N.C. -- Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are digging in for a month-long fight in advance of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, but it could be North Carolina that emerges as the more important battleground. A win in North Carolina isn't likely to push Sen. Clinton past Sen. Obama in the delegate race for the Democratic presidential nomination, but if she scores an upset, she could grab attention of superdelegates, the officials and party leaders who can vote for whomever they choose and may be the deciding factor this year....

***

Sen. Obama leads Sen. Clinton 1,621 to 1,499 in the overall delegate tally, according to the Associated Press; 2,024 are needed to win the nomination. That makes it all the more critical for Sen. Clinton to win in a state where it's not expected. A strong showing in North Carolina could alter the contest more than wins in Pennsylvania, Kentucky or West Virginia, where she is favored to do well, or even in Indiana, which is considered a toss-up. "Even a very close Clinton showing here really has the potential to change the race," says John Dinan, a political-science professor at Wake Forest University.

One key for Sen. Clinton will be to increase her share of the white vote to overcome Sen. Obama's advantage to date with black voters. Theodore Arrington, a political-science professor at the University of North Carolina-Charlotte, estimates Sen. Clinton will have to increase her share of the white vote from about 55%, her showing in a recent poll, to some 75%. He argued that superdelegates will be less concerned with the overall result than with exit polls that show how whites voted....

Although Sen. Clinton is favored to win in Pennsylvania, Sen. Obama is favored in North Carolina, where about 40% of the Democratic electorate is African-American. The state's demographic makeup mirrors Virginia, where Sen. Obama won among both white and black voters. North Carolina's rural voters, around 40% of the state, and blue-collar workers, favor Sen. Clinton, who handily won neighboring Tennessee last month. North Carolina's primary is closed to Republicans, but unaffiliated voters, which account for 12% of the Democratic electorate, can cast ballots for either party.

Polls show Sen. Obama leading in the state by about 12 percentage points but vary considerably, in part due to difficulty in predicting turnout among unaffiliated voters. One poll showed the race at a dead heat; a subsequent survey, using different methodology, put Sen. Obama far ahead....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120665997629669997.html

[terrell9584]

1. I think a win is more possible there

Then everyone is giving her credit for. And for everything that polls say, polls also said Obama would win New Hampshire by 10 points. Something happened there. Also, you may not be a fan of Liddy Dole, but the fact that she is a U.S. Senator, beating a man who had actually held office in the state, shows that North Carolinians may be more receptive to female candidates. The Lt. Governor is a woman, they have female members of Congress.

Basically, I see this as a state that she might have more of a chance then than people would give her credit for, because there is at least a pattern here of electing woman. The current female Lt. Governor actually won her first term in a general facing a woman. I know of no other Southern state where two women went up against each other for such an office.

I'm saying I wouldn't count Obama's eggs in the state before they hatch, just an observation.

[zazen]

2. wasn't the man she beat Harvey Gantt, an African American?

just thought I'd stir things up a bit

Or maybe it was our DLC corporatist Erskine Bowles, who's busy turning the UNC system into community colleges to churn out employees for the state's "economic development." I'm old enough to remember when a liberal education meant something (and I'm not that old.)

[zazen]

3. isn't this supposed to be in GD: Primaries?

The Clintons have been to my area twice in the past 8 days, so I guess I'll have to join the primaries slugfest now.

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Hi, zazen! I don't really like to post in GD Primaries.

People there generally assume a posted article is posted as a shot in the war between the candidates, and I just post articles (postive and negative about both) as FYIs. Posting here is a way of trying to stay out of the "slugfest" -- which it sounds like you're about to enter electorally!