How Kerry could win

[liberalpragmatist]

It's been said a million times, Kerry must win NH. If not, he's dead. If he does, he's at the top.

If Gephardt wins Iowa, Kerry will have an easier time defeating Dean. Kerry will also have an easier time getting the nomination against Gephardt. He could face trouble from the moderate winner in SC, but that could enable him to be the uniter, positioned between the centrists (Edwards/Lieberman/Graham) and the liberals (at least in economics)(Gephardt).

If Dean wins Iowa but Kerry wins NH, Kerry becomes even more of a giant-killer and his position is hugely increased. By cutting off Dean, he's probably dead, though he could stick around as an insurgent like Jesse Jackson, winning some primaries, probably hurting Kerry and having an impact on the final turnout even if he won't be nominated at that point.

In this above scenario, it becomes Kerry v. Edwards/Lieberman/Graham. A fight against Edwards would be tough b/c politically they're quite similar. Against Lieberman it's easier -- he'd appear moderate thru his DLC connections, his qualified support for the war, and defeating Dean, but he'd look very liberal compared to Lieberman and this would increase his position dramatically. Against Graham, it'd be odd -- Graham would probably assail him on the war vote, but on most domestic issues, Kerry is to the left of Graham. I'd guess that Kerry comes out on top, but if Graham's alive at that point, you can't count him out.

[DrFunkenstein]

1. Actually, I Think NH Is Considered A Race Now

I think both Dean and Kerry could survive if they put in a very respectable showing. Same for Iowa. However, I think after SC, the ball will already be rolling in whatever direction it will go. Hopefully, it will be a dramatic race to get people paying attention.

[Name removed]

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