6 months until the Iowa Caucuses!

[goobergunch]

The Iowa Caucuses are only 6 months away, so it's time for your early Iowa predictions!

Mine:
Gephardt 23%
Dean 22%
Kerry 21%
Lieberman 12%
Graham 8%
Edwards 8%
Kucinich 3%
Moseley Braun 2%
Sharpton 1%

[ryharrin]

1. I'm going to reserve my prediction until there are

Iowa poll numbers since the Dean meetup letter writing campaign. I see that making a difference.

Oh what the hell, I'll make a prediction anyways.
Dean 25%
Gephardt 20%
Kerry 17%
Graham 10%
Edwards 10%
Lieberman 10%
Kucinich 4%
Sharpton 3%
(I predict Mosely Braun will be out of the race by then)

[burr]

2. Immediately after Iowa and N.H., Lieberman and Braun will drop out.

Dean must come in second in Iowa and first in New Hampshire to be able to win the nomination. Gephardt must win Iowa and move up to second in New Hampshire to win the nomination. Kerry must win in New Hampshire and then win some primaries in the south to get the nomination.

These aren't predictions, but some milestones that the candidates must achieve in the campaign to become the frontrunner.

[Ishkaboogl]

3. i concur

but remember, those predictions are self-fulfilling. the only reason kerry has to win NH is because the media says so. they predict something, and it then becomes CW.

[burr]

4. He has to meet lower expectations than does Dean, the underdog.

For instance, if Kerry was third in Iowa, this would not seriously hurt him as it could hurt Dean or Gephardt. Kerry can compensate for this with his fundraising base and his national name recognition with a strong win in N.H.. On the other hand, coming in second behind Gephardt in Iowa would make either Kerry or Dean the stronger of the contenders in N.H..

You might say that I was cutting Kerry a break.

[Nicholas_J]

5. After Labor Day

The media scrutiny of the candidates wil begin in earnest, and Dean has far more that is not known, as the other candidates. Dean benefited from his dark horse, outsider, status during the early race, but this may blow up in his face, since this same status is likely to return to haunt him as people start looking at his record as governor.

Dean supporters beleive that he can do no wrong, but Dean will suffer enough losses from people who WILL be critical about his silence about gay marriage between 1996 and 1999 when the case was being brought up through th courts, as well as hisstance on other areas, his using surpluses to give tax cuts, and then the need to begin recommending drastically cutting social services withing 20 months of using the surpluses, that could have been kept in reserve to handle possible deficits.

George Bush is making the claim that he could not have known about all of the problems he was going to face when HE used record surpluses in order to give tax cuts. Dean will have to face the same media questions. And the same criticisms that Bush has had to face from democrats for doing so will be foist upon Dean.

Dean beleives he left Veront with a balancved budget, but there are plenty of politicians on the left and right who do not agree, and the opinions of these people will also likely hit the national media as well. SO Dean may spend a great deal of time having to explain a great deal about his decisions as governor, and this will detract from Deans campaign.

Pretty much everything about the other candidates careers and records are known to the public. All Dean and his supporters will have to spout is that they signed the partiot act and the Iraq Act. amd thats old news. Deans old record in Vermont will be new news to everyone but the 600,000 people who live in Vermont. ANd there will be more thna enough of those 600,000 odd Vermontrers and there representatives who will be willing to criticize Dean in the national media, to get public exposure for themselves. Particularly the Progressive party. Dean will soon be fighting a far more uphill battle in the media for the nomination.

[CMT]

6. I honestly think that Dean will win the Iowa caucuses

I think that his supporters will turnout come sleet or snow and his organization in Iowa is first class and in a caucus state that really means everything. I won't give a percentage prediction--it could be a very narrow victory or it could be a bigger than expected victory such as Pat Robertson's victory over George Bush the first in Iowa in 1988 was. As I said a caucus state is very unpredictable--but I am coming to the conclusion that people are looking for someone new and that Dean is exciting lots of people. Today I was at the farmers Market in Madison tabeling for Dean and I had two people who support other candidates--Kerry and Clark--come to me and say that Dean is their second choice if their guy doesn't make it--and wanted to take some of the Dean literature we had to study up on him.

[goobergunch]

8. I agree that Dean can win the IA caucuses...

I think it's a three-way toss-up between Gephardt, Dean, and Kerry...that's why I ranked them only 1% apart.

[revcarol]

7. Kucinich is gaining.

IOWA LABOR LEADER: Kucinich is the Up-and-Comer

Suday Desmoines Register reported on remarks of Jan Corderman, president of Iowa's influential AFSCME union:
"I think that propbably the up-and-comer...is Dennis Kucinich." Kucinich has had "a real presence here in Iowa recently" and has received an enthusiastic reception, said Corderman, whose 13,000 member union is the state's second largest. "Our folks are impressed with his positions on issues," she said. "He's definitely a man of the people. But he's also one that people need to hear more about."