The DOW is hovering around 12,000 this morning.

[tekisui]

It hit a new low on the year this morning. Lower than the big dive after MLK Day.

No good news on the horizon.

[tekisui]

1. 11,997 now.

Down 15% in 5 months.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. How low will it go

before it bottoms out, do you think?

[tekisui]

4. Others here have said down to the 9,500-10,000 range.

[A HERETIC I AM]

6. 10,000 would be a 30% correction...

by contrast, the last cycle saw the high in Jan of 2000 at 11750 and the low at 7197 in Oct. of 2002. That equates to a 38.7% drop.

Don't forget that the Dow has already tested a bottom in the 11600 range twice, on Jan 22 & Jan 23.

As of 10:47, DJIA up over 24 for the day at 12067.

[bain_sidhe]

12. 30% sounds reasonable

given the other economic numbers floating around. Although... how do commodities figure into the Dow? I know there's a separate index for them, but I'm talking about the companies that might benefit fromt the commodities bubble. And are any of them in the DJI mix? That could make a difference.

[A HERETIC I AM]

13. Probably more that would be hurt by high commodities prices than would benefit, unless..

they hold contracts they will profit off of in their own accounts. Of course, the biggest player in one of the biggest commodities plays is Exxon Mobil, so I would say yeah, Exxon would benefit. Chevron is now listed in the DOW 30 too. GE uses plenty of petroleum in the production of plastics. Can't forget McDonalds as one of the largest purchasers of beef in the world.

That's an interesting question. I would think that if they aren't hedged because they bought futures contracts on whatever commodity they use, the various companies would certainly be seeing costs rise, just like everyone else.

[bain_sidhe]

16. So, at most two

with the rest dealing with the same inflated prices we peons have to. I don't think those two are going to be enough to keep it out of the "major correction! I mean HUGH!!1! I'm SERIES!!!111!" territory.

Unless, of course, they change the make up of the DJI companies, of course. Replace McDonalds with ADM or something. OTOH, even that's not a pure commodity play, because ADM uses a lot of oil and oil derivatives (fertilizers, mostly) in it's farming ops.

But then there's Alcoa... do they buy their aluminum or do they actually own the bauxite mines and refine it themselves?

[A HERETIC I AM]

17. Info on Alcoa...

The Wikipedia page on them states;

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is the world’s third largest producer of aluminum, behind Rio Tinto and Rusal. <1> Alcoa leads the world in alumina production and capacity. From its operational headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Alcoa oversees operations in 44 countries.

Alcoa in Australia

Alcoa operates bauxite mines, alumina refineries and aluminium smelters through Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals, which is a joint venture between Alumina Limited and Alcoa. Alcoa operates two bauxite mines in Western Australia - the Huntly and Willowdale mines. Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals owns and operates three alumina refineries in Western Australia: Kwinana, Pinjarra and Wagerup. Two aluminium smelters are also operated in the state of Victoria at Portland and Point Henry.

And their own Website

[caesartoday]

18. 10,000

Until we get a new democratic president.

[Renew Deal]

3. It's been dropping since Hillary won.

Not good.

[NMDemDist2]

5. oh Bullshit, leave that crap in GDP n/t

[2Design]

7. 1992 - it was 3000-4000 - let it go there n/t

[Lance31]

8. look for an 70% drop

[madrchsod]

9. 10,000 is about where it should be

yes just where it was at in 2000.

[SlowDownFast]

10. Woot, woot. All aboard! 11,500 next stop!!! n/t

[Warpy]

11. A lot of us have made statements on when it will do that

so there's an unofficial Economy board dead pool on the stock market.

My own guess would be around the equinox, March 20. We'll see another sucker's rise after the next rate cut, and then it will trend down again.

[tekisui]

14. Looking to close below 12,000---->11,895 at 4:02.

Low on the year.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Here is where it closed and some clueless on GD think this is good

Dow 11,893.69 -146.70 -1.22%

We have crossed the psychological barrier folks

Oh and we are back where we were in 2001

WHOOHOO Happy times are here again! Oh wait... :sarcasm: