CREDIT-BUBBLE BULLETIN
The release of the Federal Reserve Board's Flow of Funds data for the fourth quarter and full-year 2007 underscores the continuing bursting of numerous economic bubbles, with no end in sight. The root of the problem, of course, can be traced to faltering real estate finance. As the year ended, even the booming commercial mortgage sector slowed markedly and we can safely forecast that numbers there will fall off a cliff in this quarter.
When it comes to credit bubble analysis,
the Rest of World (ROW) page in the Fed’s Z.1 "Flow of Funds" report is actually the one I contemplated the most (and with the greatest unease) last week. ROW increased holdings of US financial assets by $1.573 trillion last year, or 11.4%. With the bursting of the credit bubble and the resulting impairment of US securities, such growth has become unsustainable.
ROW holdings of US financial assets were up an astounding $7.222 trillion, or 88%, in just four years.ROW more than doubled holdings of agency/GSE MBS ($1.379 trillion) and almost doubled corporate bonds/ABS ($2.583 trillion) position since the beginning of 2004. Security repo holdings grew from $460 billion to $1.100 trillion. US equities almost doubled (94%) to $2.806 trillion. Total credit market instrument positions were up 79% over four years to $6.855 trillion.
...
The Fed didn’t really need to concern itself with the dollar. Not only were foreign financial institutions rushing in to play the boom in US "
structured finance",
the US credit system was creating perceived "money"-like securities that were the envy of the world. As fast as our trade deficits and speculative outflows flooded the world with dollar liquidity,
this finance would return to find a perceived "safe and secure" home through various monetary processes right back into our asset-based securitization markets. It was a bubble of historic proportions and it’s all laid out on the L.107 page in the Fed’s Z.1 report.
Asian Times