A View of ETFs In An Obama White House

[Joanne98]

If Barack Obama were to win the election for presidency this November, what would happen to the investment world, particularly exchange traded fund (ETF) investors?

Awhile back, we talked about funds that could benefit in a McCain win, as well as an overall Democratic win.


Jonathon Bernstein for ETFZone believes that the most immediate and powerful impact of an Obama win would be the within the area of foreign policy. He could help to ease tensions with the Middle East and Venezuela, which would in turn calm oil prices and shift the overall momentum of the markets. Currently, oil is at all-time highs, so just the thought of Obama in the White House would send oil lower in funds such as Unites States Oil (USO).

The dollar might end up in a stronger state, as a major reason the dollar fell against the euro is oil imports. If the United States were to import less oil, or or pay less for the oil it does import, we might see an improved trade deficit, thus upping the demand for U.S. dollars. CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) would reflect the dollar-euro ratio.

Obama says he would keep tax cuts for the middle class, and doesn't support Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy. Both those and his dividend tax cut expire in 2010. Dividend-focused ETFs such as iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY) or the State Street SPDR Dividend (SDY) could be vulnerable if the tax cuts aren't renewed.

Obama also supports working to put an end to global warming and a push to reduce U.S. carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. He also supports ending the ban on stem cell research. Both iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) and the WildersharesClean Energy (PBW) could experience positive movement if these issues are addressed.
http://www.etftrends.com/2008/05/obama-and-etfs.html

[iamjoy]

1. I'll Have To Read More On This Later

when I have more time.

I wonder what Jim Cramer would say about all this.

[Art_from_Ark]

2. A major reason the dollar fell against the euro

is that there are no longer reliable figures on the dollar supply, now that the M3 figures are no longer being released. And the US is financing its unprecedented high defecit with massive amounts of borrowed money.

Europe imports most of its oil.