U.S. job losses worst since 1974 - and getting worse

[Phred42]

Time to start talking with your grandparents and great parents if you're lucky enough to still have them around.
Learn what they did to survive the last Republican Great Depression. We will need all of the tricks in the book.


U.S. job losses worst since 1974 as downturn deepens
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4B437520081205


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers axed payrolls by 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years and far more than expected, government data on Friday showed, as the year-old recession hammered every corner of the U.S. economy.

U.S. stock markets opened lower, oil prices and the dollar weakened and U.S. government bond prices rallied as the data showed the U.S. downturn was deepening.

"You can't get much uglier than this. The economy has just collapsed, and has gone into a free fall," said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research in New York.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent last month, the highest since 1993, from 6.5 percent in October. It would have been even higher except for an exodus of Americans who became discouraged in their search for work and left the labor force.

[Zynx]

1. The government will probably indefinitely extend unemployment benefits.

That will be very helpful. It prevents personal spending from falling completely off a cliff.

[AndyA]

2. REPUBLICANS: Is there still any doubt in your minds that trickle down economics works?

It didn't work this time, and it hasn't worked before.

Republicans have been in charge of government during 9 of the last 11 recession periods. NINE! Is that just a coincidence? I think not.

Republicans don't know how to manage the country and keep the economy sound.

All Republicans know how to do is discriminate, start wars, spend money, and kill healthy economies.

The Republican Party needs to be buried in totality, and the ground should be salted thoroughly once done.

[Phred42]

3. It will be intersting to see how they re-write history on this one.

[watrwefitinfor]

4. Left the labor force?

"It would have been even higher except for an exodus of Americans who became discouraged in their search for work and left the labor force."

They left the labor force??? WTH does that mean. Did they commit suicide en masse? Did they all start selling drugs?

They didn't leave the labor force. Their unemployment insurance ran out and they are no longer listed as unemployed.

The extension that was enacted by Congress and signed by Bush has not even gone into effect yet, at least not in South Carolina. A family member keeps calling the main SC Unemployment office, and they keep telling her, we don't have any instructions on it yet...

People can't find jobs, their unemployment insurance has run out, and the extension hasn't kicked in. So they have "left the labor force."

Wat

[Warpy]

6. A lot of low wage wives realized it was cheaper to learn

how to cook and sew and stay home rather than spending most of their wages on childcare and fast food.

Some people, like me, realized they could retire if they weren't particular about what they ate.

Some people have undoubtedly dropped out completely. You see them living on the street.

[lostnotforgotten]

7. 6 Definitions Of Unemployment - U1 Through U6 - Two Sources Cited

Here is an overview of these six measures.

* U1: This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that has been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. This unemployment rate measures workers who are chronically unemployed. During business-cycle expansions, this rate captures structural unemployment. However, during lengthy business-cycle contractions, this rate is also likely to include a significant amount of cyclical unemployment. U1 tends to be relatively small, in the range of 1-2 percent.

* U2: This is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is classified as job losers (workers who have been involuntarily fired or laid off from their jobs) and people who have completed temporary jobs. During business-cycle expansions, this rate is likely to capture some degree of frictional unemployment. However, during business-cycle contractions, this rate is most likely to consist of cyclical unemployment. U2 is larger than U1, but still remains substantially less than the official unemployment rate (U3).

* U3: This is the official unemployment rate, which is the proportion of the civilian labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.

* U4: This is the official unemployment rate that is adjusted for discouraged workers. In other words, discouraged workers are treated just like other workers who are officially classified as unemployed, being included in both the ranks of the unemployed and the labor force. It is technically specified as the proportion of the civilian labor force (plus discouraged workers) that is either unemployed but actively seeking employment or discouraged workers. The addition of discouraged workers generally adds a few tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.

* U5: This augments U4 by including marginally-attached workers to the unemployment rate calculation. Marginally attached workers are potential workers who have given up seeking employment for various reasons. One of these reasons is that the workers believe such effort would be futile, which places them in the discouraged worker category. Those who have other reasons for not seeking employment are placed in the broader marginally-attached workers category. The addition of marginally-attached workers adds a few more tenths of a percentage point to the official unemployment rate.

* U6: This augments U5 by including part-time workers to the unemployment rate calculation. The addition of part-time workers adds a full 2-3 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. This measure of unemployment is perhaps the most comprehensive measure of labor resource unemployment available.

http://www.amosweb.com/cgi-bin/awb_nav.pl?s=wpd&c=dsp&k=alternative+unemployment+rates

---------------------

The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures employment and unemployment (of those over 15 years of age) using two different labor force surveys<22> conducted by the United States Census Bureau (within the United States Department of Commerce) and/or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (within the United States Department of Labor) that gather employment statistics monthly. The Current Population Survey (CPS), or "Household Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 60,000 households. This Survey measures the unemployment rate based on the ILO definition.<23>The data is also used to calculate 5 other unemployment rates as a percentage of the labor force based on different definitions noted as U1 through U6:<24>

* U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
* U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
* U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
* U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
* U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
* U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons.

Note: "Marginally attached workers" are added to the total labor force for unemployment rate calculation for U4, U5, and U6.

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.<25> This survey measures only nonagricultural, nonsupervisory employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data is also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.<26>

These statistics are for the U.S. economy as a whole, hiding variations among groups. For January 2008 in the U.S. the unemployment rates were 4.4% for adult men, 4.2% for adult women, 4.4% for Caucasians, 6.3% for Hispanics or Latinos (all races), 9.2% for African Americans, 3.2% for Asian Americans, and 18.0% for teenagers.<25>

These percentages represent the usual rough ranking of these different groups' unemployment rates. The absolute numbers change over time and with the business cycle. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides up-to-date numbers via a pdf linked here. The BLS also provides a readable concise current Employment Situation Summary, updated monthly.<27>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment

[Hawkowl]

9. Statistical manipulation

The government no longer counts a person as unemployed if they are no longer looking for work. What this means is that the unemployment number, (U3 as a post below details), can be much lower if the government suddenly decides that 2 million people looking for work last month are no longer in the labor force because they have been out of work so long they are considered "discouraged workers".

If you want a more accurate number for unemployment try U6 as a measurement. This number takes into account "discouraged workers" among other categories, and is difficult to statistically manipulate. Also a U6 measurement actually is closer to the unemployment figures used before Reagan, and Clinton modified the number to make it seem less.

[Waiting For Everyman]

11. Those who are denied UE altogether aren't in the numbers either.

I'm not, for one. Returning and new workers aren't counted - not enough time in yet.

[northernlights]

14. the ones like me "left the labor force"

after the jobless * recovery of 2002, and years of not so much rejection letters but non-recognition of receiving a resume. And have been living off our "retirement" funds.

Last year, the local state university finally started a training program for medical lab technology to supplement their nursing program. So now, we're taking on debt in late middle age to get through a "two-year" (really 3-4 years given scheduling, waittimes, etc. just to get in)in health care.

I saw Chuckie Gibson on ABCnew choking up with tears and pride over the big, burly factory workers he met with who are all optimistic about becoming nurses. I hope he re-interviews them in a couple years, and then he'll really break down and cry.

For every one of us who makes it through -- I've watched 1 lab partner end up hospitalized (prolly left hosp in a cardboard box), 1 flunk out, 1 drop out and back up a level to prevent flunking out and am watching several struggle with microbiology for their 2nd and 3rd times through. 30% of the students in my micro lab are taking it (and failing) for the 2nd time. 50% flunk out rate in nursing school.

[Warpy]

5. I got nailed in the 1973-4 unemployment crush

Nixon had a shred of compassion, though, and extended unemployment benefits. I took full advantage of them.

Unemployment was so bad that on check night, the line would stretch two full city blocks in Boston.

Nobody bothered to ask where you'd looked for work because there just weren't any jobs out there. Job search pages were blank and counselors were enjoying a much needed break.

Eventually that period of misery ended and jobs started to open up again, probably because those extended unemployment bennies kept us all spending.

[marketcrazy1]

8. part of any stimulus

should be a raise in unemployment benefits to the level of a "living wage" as jobs will not be coming back anytime soon......

[cyberpj]

10. So can someone please explain to me how the market closed UP about 250 today?!?! nt

[Citizen Number 9]

12. Traders need to make an income, too....

Desperation?

Hope?

[cyberpj]

15. That was my first thought, because it went way up, then way down, then way up again...

I was just picturing those guys with earphones watching multi screens yelling buy! buy! buy! then sell! sell! sell! -- it was happening just that quickly.

Didn't I read something about legislation to stop day-trading?

[Citizen Number 9]

18. I don't think day trading is the actual culprit

The landscape is just changing so fast that what seems like good purchase decisions one day turn into a 'sell' the next day.

People are also very confused because all the normal rules aren't working for them.

I know a few day traders who are very pleased to ride the waves we've been seeing, but they aren't making any of these markets.

[AnneD]

13. Wall Streets interest....

and Main Streets interests are different. CEO's view employees as an expense not an asset. WS hasn't yet figured out that unemployed folks can't be consumers.

[cyberpj]

16. Or else they are content with the luxury class consumers being able to purchase more.......

the world in the 8 years of Bush admin has become truly unreal to me.

[Citizen Number 9]

21. OK, no answer on the first query...

Exactly what is it that you feel has become "unreal" in the last 8 years?

[Citizen Number 9]

17. Is this the US vs THEM stuff again?

Even hard assets become an expense and need to be sold when they aren't performing for you.

[AnneD]

19. Begone....

oh troll-I cast my powerful ignore spell on you for your ignorant rants from this and a previous thread show a total willful lack of compassion for people and depth of knowledge of economics, for I am old and don't have time to suffer fools.:eyes:

Consider yourself 1 of 2 ignored. ZOT

[Citizen Number 9]

20. Why is this happening to me?

Citizen Number 9 <-- Feeling a nearly irrepressible desire to make a tea of nightshade and drink it up....

There is no amount of compassion that can overcome the selfishness and evil that exists in the hearts of "people".

As for economics, I don't have as much knowledge as some, I am sure, but after a couple short posts, what could it possibly be that you think I don't know? I am somewhat versed in all major forms with a fair amount of experience in some, including the one called "the real world".

[sarcasmo]

26. In your posts it almost seems like you are siding with big business, it may be why she deems you a

TROLL, from freerepublic perhaps?

[Citizen Number 9]

27. Could it be

that I am intelligent enough to see both sides of the equation?

[readmoreoften]

29. No. If you think there are two moral sides to usurper and robbed, then you fall on only one side.

It's not intelligence. It's disingenuous triangulating and posturing.

[Citizen Number 9]

32. Moral. Intelligence. Usurper. Robbed.

Big words. Care to discuss them or can I expect you to flame out after you've tossed a few labels and hung a few insults?

[sarcasmo]

25. He can't hide his freerepublic Hat.

[Citizen Number 9]

28. Yep, I think that's what it is...

Has that US vs THEM stuff worked pretty well for you so far?

[sarcasmo]

30. Ignore button is a great feature, I bet you are on many ignore lists.

[Citizen Number 9]

31. If you have a hard time

facing reality, it may be a good idea to put me on ignore.

[this_side_up]

22. check out the image...

delinquent loans 1979 - 2008.

Everything detrimental to middle and poor class increases
tremendously when the cons are in office and improves
when a Dem is prez.


http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/more_oregonians_are_late_on_th.html

[JohnWxy]

23. Tell Harry Reid . If you think Sen Shelby is risking a depression tell Reid to straighten

him out (possibly flat on his back on the floor).

harry Reid's contact page - Seriously, tell Reid to get this bridge loan passed NOW, before it's too damn late.

[sarcasmo]

24. The shit is going to hit the fan in January. GM has idled many plants through the holidays

and half of the first quarter, which means mid February. The unemployment numbers for December are going to be insane and probably would be released until January 21st.

[Citizen Number 9]

33. ??

"...and probably would be released until January 21st." :shrug: