" When will this wretched economy bottom out?"

[dixiegrrrrl]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090307/ap_on_bi_ge/economy_where_s_the_bottom

[FieldsBlank]

1. 2035

according to Steve Puetz' study of cycles

[Deja Q]

3. Let's hope Puetz is a putz.

:(

[jody]

2. When the inventory of overpriced goods are depleted and basic demand slowly recovers. n/t

[GoesTo11]

4. How long does it take to drop to the bottom of a bottomless pit?

Most of us will die in the coming famine, if we aren't killed. Buy Gold!!!!

[customerserviceguy]

5. Not until real estate bottoms out

and with all the ghost inventory being held by lenders who have foreclosed, that's going to be quite some time away. Right now, there is a ten percent tax credit for first-time homebuyers, but so-called "cramdown" rules being adopted to amend the Bankruptcy Act are going to eventually require 20 or 25 percent down payments on home loans. This might not be a problem for people selling homes that they have a lot of equity in, in order to move to a different place, but it's going to be impossible for first-time home buyers, or people whose home values are at or below their mortgage balances.

I also look for mortgage rates to rise significantly upon adoption of the cramdown rules, real estate is not going to ever be seen as the great collateral it was back in the good old days.