The Economy Is Contracting A Lot More Rapidly Than The Government Is Reporting, Per TrimTabs

[girl gone mad]

from http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/economy-is-contracting-lot-more-rapidly.html">Zero Hedge:

The Economy Is Contracting A Lot More Rapidly Than The Government Is Reporting, Per TrimTabs

http://www.trimtabs.com/site/index.php">TrimTabs is out with their most recent employment data, which compares to the earlier ADP report, that the market forgot about after the first 30 minutes of trading. According to TrimTabs "the U.S. economy lost 700,000 to 750,000 jobs in March as wages and salaries plunged 4.5% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed 4.3 million jobs in the past 12 months, the largest annual job loss since 1970."

"Job losses have been accelerating in recent months," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. "Investors who think the economy is bottoming out are going to get quite a shock this spring." TrimTabs uses daily income tax withholdings into the U.S. Treasury to estimate changes in employment. According to TrimTabs, the country lost 2.1 million jobs in the past three months and 3.4 million jobs in the past six months.

Much more interestingly, TrimTabs estimates that Joe Schmoe's conviction that the market has bottomed is translating into returns to good ole spending behavior and savings rates are in fact lower than reported, meaning the as savings rates inevitably run up, the pain for the economy will just get so much worse.

TrimTabs reported that the personal savings rate in February was much lower than the 4.2% reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Real-time income tax data indicates that personal income is plummeting and that the savings rate was no more than 0.9% in February," said Biderman. "The only reason the savings rate was positive was that income tax refunds were up sharply relative to last year."

And to add to the gloom and doom, which Zero Hedge does not disagree with, TrimTabs concludes: "The key macroeconomic and liquidity indicators TrimTabs tracks show no sign of a bottom for the economy. The economy is still contracting a lot more rapidly than the government is reporting."

[natrat]

1. no, our new democratic government wouldn't lie to us, i'm shocked

[Gman]

2. The market is oversold right now by 10 - 15%

because they so desperately want it to go back to what it was before. Wall Street wants to think they've spent enough time on this so they want to go back to what they were doing before the economy crashed. That is, buying into and running up a market that is doomed to crash.

I don't trust government reports. Info like this makes me reiterate that the bottom for this market is minimum 5200. Maybe as low as 4500 - 4800.

[girl gone mad]

4. I think the run up in the last couple sessions has been related to the..

mark to market accounting rule change expected to be announced tomorrow.

[Gman]

5. How are they going to change the rule? Or are thay

gonna allow them to keep pulling numbers out of their rear and saying that's what their garbage assets are worth?

[Po_d Mainiac]

8. that and

manipulation by fund managers to create window dressing. They (fund managers) realize that on the scum pole, they have moved up a couple notches on attorneys and now have their noses very close to the stink end of investment bankers digestive tract.

The number of recent indictments against said a-holes has gotten their attention. This is such a shallow scam, I can see through it.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Some day we will know why this gov't is peddling rosy scenarios

It makes no sense to me, practically OR politically

[tech3149]

6. My take is that they're just trying to talk up the economy

Those who have an informed opinion pretty much don't have anything to gain from speaking the truth. The people who are trying to keep the economic juices flowing by saying it's not that bad are mostly insiders who have something to gain by propping up an economic model that has no balance or ethics. I suppose if I had millions or billions invested in the system as it stands, I'd probably try and defy reality to sell a rosy picture if it helped me to hold on to that money.

Then again, I don't really have any use for that kind of money and would probably give most of it away. I would however stock up on some good single malt and give up the cheap rotgut.

[wuvuj]

9. It's good for the investment banks and hedge funds...

...to run the market up and down. Going up they make $ and bait the private investor in...then they short all the way down...obvious?

Market news and opinion and analyst ratings are timed to encourage a run up and then a drop.

The new theme is the bottom is in. Look for distribution patterns at a top?

Some think this is the top...others say as much as S&P 1000.


Here's an interesting take on what's to come?

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/alarming-news-bank-losses-spreading-32910

[Po_d Mainiac]

7. up heyuh, we know

http://morningsentinel.mainetoday.com/newsupdate.php?updates/deeper-slump-seen-for-maine-economy