Does anyone here think the current stock rally is sustainable.

[edhopper]

I think it's a typical Bear Market Rally. What do you think?

[AllieB]

1. Do bear market rallies typically last this long?

I know during the Depression there were 6 such rallies but they weren't sustained for very long.

On edit: found a link that they actually did last a while:

http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/228893/2591709.aspx

November 1929 - April 1930: +48%

June 1930 - September 1930: +12%

December 1930 - February 1931: +21%

May 1931 - June 1931: +27%

October 1932 - November 1931: +35%

July 1932 - September 1932: +72%

[ixion]

2. no, it's not, IMO

it's based on nothing but wishful thinking, since banks still haven't written down the value of their assets.

And, then, of course, there's the coming US default on it's foreign debt.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x63426

[Warpy]

3. Nothing is typical about this economy

and all the institutional flaws that caused the disaster are still there.

While I am not calling this a rally so much as a holding action, much the way an artificially high value was held for nearly all of Stupid's 8 years in office due to his tax cuts to the rich, I'm not calling it a bear market, either.

The bear market will come, though, until and unless the institutional problems are addressed.

It will also occur if the larger economic disaster caused by offshoring, depressed wages, and high consumer debt is unaddressed.

I have a shopping list at the ready, but I'm not shopping just yet.

[liberalmuse]

4. No.

I really couldn't explain why, except that over a half a million people are still losing their jobs each month, foreclosures are off the charts, and banks keep getting taken over by the Fed, and businesses are going bankrupt. I also keep getting scary emails from corporate saying that times are tough, but they have confidence that things will get better, but for now, hang on because we don't know what is going to happen next. That's not entirely reassuring that the rally is a fortelling of better economic times ahead.

[TheCowsCameHome]

5. Yes, sustainable.

[edhopper]

6. Why do you think so?

[TheWatcher]

14. Because the TV, the White House, and The Banks told him so.

Please don't interrupt a sleepwalker.

Very dangerous.

[notesdev]

16. That didn't take long

Enjoy your 'sustainable rally'

http://finance.yahoo.com/

Hope you were short financials.

[sendero]

7. This rally is here..

... to suck the last few percent out of the 401Ks and trading accounts of the gullible, of which there is no shortage in this country.

After getting fleeced for 40% of their retirement, they are coming back for more. Like all good cons, this one depends on the greed and gullibility of the victims.

[CoffeeCat]

8. No, it's not sustainable...

...because the reasons for these short-term rallies are bases on lies. Yeah, I said it.

Do you remember when Bank of America announced amazing profits in February? There was a rally in the financial
sector and the talking heads called a bottom and proclaimed that this glimmer would be the genesis of an amazing
economic recovery? We later found out that BofAs "profits" were due to some funny business involving AIG, which
gave the appearance of profitability.

Do you also remember in Feb, when the stats about improving housing starts were released? Again, the talking heads
called a bottom and proclaimed that this glimmer would be the genesis of an amazing economic recovery. Later, we
find out that there was a very slight uptick, due to more apartment buildings being constructed. Not houses! This
signaled FEAR of buying a home and an unwillingness to commit to a mortgage. BAD news. Not good news.

Most recently, Wells Fargo announced $3 billion "record profits". A couple of weeks ago, based entirely on this WF announcement,
the entire financial sector boomed and the stock market rose more than 300 points in one day. Again, the talking heads
proclaimed that this glimmer would be the genesis of an amazing economic recovery. Later, we discover that the WF
numbers aren't as rosy, and that the profits are due to their Wachovia acquisition, write downs, TARP funds and other
creative accounting. Furthermore, they won't allow anyone to see their books. In other words, it's all smoke and mirrors.

Many of the rallies we've experienced are due to complete LIES!

Furthermore, many are dipping in and getting out of the market quick, trying to make money off of these volatile highs and lows.
This money doesn't stay in the market for long. People feel that Target will tank...or that Bank of America will rise from its $1
price--and they get in. The rise or fall happens---and they're out. The market isn't attracting long-term investors who are
in for the long haul. Hence the volatilities---big spikes up and big plunges.

As others have said too--isn't this entire thing a house of cards until we fully comprehend the toxic-asset damage. The large
banks are most likely insolvent. Who knows how far the damage extends! These toxic assets were packaged up as mortgage securities,
resold into secondary markets. Insurance companies, pension funds, smaller banks, hedge funds, institutional insurance companies, credit
unions----all have this financial cancer metastasizing within their walls. We need to understand the complete damage. So far, the
banks are hiding their books. NOt a good sign.

For these reasons--I can't imagine that most of the stock-market activity is healthy or based on anything authentic. Everything
is a giant cluster f*uck of nonsense, lies, distortions, media nonsense, etc.

It's difficult to know anything FOR CERTAIN, but what we can figure out on our own----doesn't look that appealing!

[edhopper]

9. This post was a bit of an experiment.

I posted a similar thread on GD. Here where I believe more people are tuned into economics, the responses where mostly that it's a false rally.
In GD:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=5488714&mesg_id=5488714
It was more split between true rally and bear. That is not to say that the posters didn't show they had a good grasp of economics.

[pa28]

10. I don't think we've seen the bottom.

On CNBC there were guys calling bottom at 12k, 10k, 8k never to be seen again. I guess they're living in boxcars now :shrug:

This time some credible people and former bears are saying we have seen the bottom (so that was worth noting) but there is so much underlying wreckage and bad/overleveraged/unliquidated debt menacing the recovery I still don't buy it. I'd like to see all the gangrene purged from the system even though it means pain now for the chance of a healthy and sustainable recovery later.

[Po_d Mainiac]

11. The markets are not a reflection on the economy, till they all crash

Make sure your seats are in the upright position, tray tables are locked, and all loose carry-on items are secured safely :nuke:

[edhopper]

12. This morning

the Bears seem to have a stronger voice on GD.

[Joanne98]

13. No. I think it's a W......

[Art_from_Ark]

15. I think it's a

Bear-Market Dead-Cat-Bounce Sucker's rally.