Global warming could cut a swathe through the planet's species over the coming centuries, warns a study released Wednesday that shows a link between rising temperatures and mass extinctions reaching back half a billion years. Each of five major eras of declining biodiversity -- including one in which 95 percent of the Earth's species disappeared -- correspond to cycles of severe warming over the 520-million-year period for which there are fossil records.
If emissions of greenhouse gas rise unchecked, the predicted increase in global temperature over the next several hundred years could fall within a similar range as these peaks, said the study, published in a British journal, Proceedings of The Royal Society B. Previous studies have either looked for patterns in climate change or the causes of particular mass extinctions. But this is the first time the two been paired together to give a perspective over such a long time.
"If our results hold for current warming -- the magnitude of which is comparable with the long-term fluctuations in Earth climate -- they suggest that extinctions will increase," lead author Peter Mayhew said in a statement. The UN's top panel of climate scientists, which won the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this month, forecasts an average increase by 2100 of between 1.1 C (1.98 F) and 6.4 C (11.52 F), compared to 1980-99 levels.
The trio of researchers, led by Timothy Benton at the University of Leeds in northern England, used sea surface temperatures -- extrapolated from fossilized records of the oxygen and acidity levels -- to determine the fluctuations over tens of millions of years between "greenhouse" and "icehouse" periods
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