Energy Watch Group issues a major report on Peak Oil

[GliderGuider]

This report has the imprimatur of the German parliament. It's the most thorough, detailed and incisive report on the subject that I've seen. They use elements of both bottom-up and top-down analysis, and the conclusions they arrive match those I've synthesized over the last two years almost to the letter. It's been discussed by Chris Skrebowski and others, and the Peak Oil community is collectively nodding its head and saying, "Finally, somebody gets it."

The Executive Summary is all a person who wants to learn about Peak Oil would need to come up to speed.

The PDF summary is available at http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf

Conclusion

The major result from this analysis is that world oil production has peaked in 2006. Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.

The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life.

Here's their curve:
.
And their bottom line:

- 2006: 81 Mb/d
- 2020: 58 Mb/d
- 2030: 39 Mb/d

[phantom power]

1. Whose little flight of fancy is that with the red dotted line?

[GliderGuider]

2. That's the IEA's World Energy Outlook. I want some of what they're smoking.

The EWG doesn't quite laugh out loud...

[depakid]

3. "....beginning of a structural change of its economic system."

I've often wondered where the tipping points will be for certain sectors as their activities become uneconomic. My guess is that somewhere between $5 and $6 per gallon, Americans will begin to see (and feel) major changes occurring that will come as a shock to many who've assumed that things will go on as "they always have."

[4dsc]

4. What will it take to wake up the sheeple here??

It seems no matter how many of these type of reports come out the American leadership and people remain asleep at the wheel..

[Strelnikov_]

7. Shortages/Rationing

When they go to fill up with SUV go-juice, and there is none.

Note the comments by the Shell executive in another thread. 'No shortages, no problem.'

[emmadoggy]

5. Happy, Happy, Joy, Joy!

I love coming to the E/E forum for a little mood pick-me-up in the morning!! ;-)


:scared:

[Delphinus]

6. Their bottom line for 2020 seems pretty optimistic.

Just the other day, Mexico's Calderon was talking about their oil production going into decline. And I see from the charts, the authors have said Mexico peaked in 2004.

{Snip}:
Our way of dealing with energy issues probably will have to change
fundamentally.

Wonder when we as a nation will start dealing with this and coming up with solutions other than war.

Thanks, Glider.