March Wheat Hits $15.53 In Minneapolis; May US Stocks Will Be Lowest Since 1948 - Bloomberg

[hatrack]

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat rose to a record for a third day on the Chicago Board of Trade, gaining the maximum permitted by the exchange, as the U.S. forecast its lowest inventories in 60 years and global demand outpaced production.

The U.S. will hold 272 million bushels at the end of May, the lowest since 1948 and 6.8 percent less than expected a month ago, the Department of Agriculture said in a report today. Inventories in the U.S., the world's biggest wheat exporter, will drop 40 percent from a year earlier. Wheat futures have more than doubled in the past year as supplies dwindled.

``We have a limited supply and we got confirmation of that this morning,'' said Jamey Kohake, a broker at Paragon Investments in Silver Lake, Kansas. ``We had the early frost last year and drought pretty much worldwide, and we kept demand at a rapid pace, so our stocks started to dwindle.'' Wheat futures for March delivery rose 30 cents, or 2.8 percent, to a record $10.93 a bushel in overnight trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price has gained 16 percent this week, rising the 30-cent exchange limit every day. A close at that price would mark the biggest weekly gain in history.

EDIT

On the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, wheat for March delivery rose the exchange limit of 30 cents, or 2 percent, to a record $15.53 a bushel overnight. The price has more than tripled in the past year and rose the exchange limit for 11 of the past 12 sessions.

EDIT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV9pm6j8_FDM&refer=home

[Arger68]

1. So how soon will we all be in a mass famine?

It can't be too far off in some countries at least.:scared:

[GliderGuider]

3. We'll see the first signs this year or next.

Price of oil is famine as food plugs demand

VULNERABLE regions of the world face the risk of famine over the next three years as rising energy costs spill over into a food crunch, the US investment bank Goldman Sachs says.

"We've never been at a point in commodities where we are today," said Jeff Currie, the bank's commodity chief and oil guru.

Global oil output has been stagnant for four years, failing to keep up with rampant demand from Asia and the Middle East. China's oil imports rose 14 per cent last year. Biofuels from grain, oil seed and sugar are plugging the gap, but drawing away food supplies at a time when the world is adding more than 70 million mouths to feed a year.

"Markets are as tight as a drum and now the US has hit the stimulus button," Mr Currie said in his 2008 outlook. "We have never seen this before when commodity prices were already at record highs. Over the next 18 to 36 months we are probably going into crisis mode across the commodity complex.

Things really, really don't look good. And with the world economy sliding towards a depression, the opportunities for turning the situation around look limited.

[Arger68]

4. Question, do you have a food storage at home?

I have a fair amount, probably at least a few months worth set aside (probably 6 months worth with a full freezer, provided I can still get electricity). Just wondering how much I really should have stored.

[Mojorabbit]

5. I am up to 9 months worth

just in case. As prices go up I have ended up saving money on the groceries I bought at a cheaper price and now can at my leisure shop sales to plug in any holes in my pantry.

[GliderGuider]

6. We maybe have a month's worth - just a basic pantry/freezer load.

I haven't gone into hoarding mode. I don't think my region is going to see actual food scarcity any time soon, though prices will continue to rise. A food cache is only helpful if you expect short, severe interruptions in supply. I expect that around here the problem will be long-term (decades) and the effects will be gradual but cumulative. In that situation a cache won't help. You're better off adopting a long-term adaptive strategy -- learning to eat lower on the food chain, and getting used to lower quality food.

[Tumbulu]

10. I just got my 4 acres of heirloom wheat back from the seed cleaners and have about 2800 lbs

So, if anyone needs some, you can get it from me. It's all in 50 gal drums in my barn safe from mice and insects and rain.

This year I planted 6 acres.

[NickB79]

8. I read an interesting article stating that potatoes might supplant bread

As the primary source of carbs in the coming years. The author pointed to areas such as pre-Industrial Revolution Europe, where wheat was only affordable by those in the upper levels of society. The poor ate potatoes; the Irish were a prime example of this.

I'm gonna miss bread :(

[L0oniX]

2. Hmmm ...food power is almost as good as military power ....huh

Will we feed our own first or will the corporations sell it to the highest bidder no matter what the conditions may be here in the US?

[pscot]

7. Reallocating resources away from meat and fuel production

would help short term. Is the developed world willing to make some changes to keep people in Africa from starving? On the other hand, if we make the necessary accomodations and population keeps increasing, we face the same problems again a few years down the road with larger numbers and an agricultural system that will be further degraded. No matter what we do short term, we are up against some hard limits that can only be addressed by limiting/reducing the number of mouths we have to feed. Someone needs to tell the pope, the rhythm method isn't working.

[speedbird]

9. to save ten cents a day?

wheat has gone up, what,
ten cents a pound.
US consumption is something like 150 to 200 pounds
per year.