Africa in 2040: the Darkened Continent

[GliderGuider]

I said I was working on an analysis of the food and energy (in)security situation in Africa. Well, it's done, and I thought I'd give all my friends here at E/E the first look at it.

I'm posting the introduction, and the entire article is at Africa in 2040: the Darkened Continent.

There is a darkness moving on the face of the land. We catch glimpses of it in newscasts from far-off places that few of us have ever seen. We hear hints of it on the radio, read snippets about it in newspapers and magazines. The stories are always fragmentary, without context or connection. They speak of things like inflation in Zimbabwe, war in Chad, electricity problems in Johannesburg, famine in Malawi, pipeline fires that burn hundreds in Nigeria, political violence in Kenya, cholera in Congo. Each of these snapshots of grief heaves briefly into view, then fades back into obscurity. With every fresh story we are left asking ourselves, "Is there something bigger going on here, some unseen thread connecting these dots? Or is this just more of the same from a continent that has known more than its share of misery?"

This paper is my attempt to connect those dots, to tease some order out of the chaos of the news reports. I will use some very simple numerical techniques to fill in the missing lines, and in the end a picture will emerge. I can tell you in advance that the picture is fearsome beyond imagining, and you may well be tempted to avert your gaze. I would advise you instead to screw up your courage and take a good look. It is crucial to our future as a civilized race.

Until we get to that point, however, some of the things I'm going to tell you may seem a little dry. There are a number of graphs in this article, and if you're like most people you may be tempted to skip over them and get on with the story. Again, I'd advise against that. The true story of what's going on is in those numbers. It's very difficult to tell a tale this big with individual anecdotes, as compelling as they may be. While personal stories do bring the situation to life, they cannot effectively convey the scope and scale of something as large as we'll be investigating. I've tried my best to make the graphs readable, to keep the critical information unobscured. Each of the graphs has a crucial tale to tell. I hope you spend some time with each one, thinking about what those bloodless numbers mean in terms of human lives.

At the end we will discuss what the world is, isn't and should be doing to change the picture. There is much to discuss and ponder, much outrage to express, and perhaps even some fears to deal with. But there is also the promise of hope, of challenges to meet, perhaps even redemption of a sort. Until we meet there, lets get busy filling in those missing lines.

[pscot]

1. The numbers are compelling,

but they do not entertain. You need to produce the cartoon version, to attract a more general readership.

[GliderGuider]

2. If there are ever cartoon illustrations to this article

They will be taken from Francisco de Goya's "Disasters of War".

I already regret soft-pedaling the message of what I've discovered. I will probably re-write parts of the article to give a more frank appraisal of what we're looking at here. My numbers show that Africa has less than a decade before the continent starts to dissolve undeniably before our eyes. In fact, as the numbers show, it's dissolving already but people are simply unwilling to face up to that fact. I'm unsure what is to be accomplished in the face of this by brave talk of promoting condoms and meeting the Millennium Development Goals.

Tonight my GF compared these projections to those of the IPCC. We all know the IPCC put out conservative projections to enhance their acceptability to both TPTB and the general public. We here on E/E, of all people, know how well that has worked out. My projections in this article suffer from exactly the same problem, but I don't have the excuse of having to please political masters to ensure their publication. I have voluntarily traded honesty for acceptability. In the process the value of the message has been lost.

The facts of the case are sound, but I need to re-write the discussion. Certainly there less pusillanimous conclusions to be drawn.

[CRH]

3. Kick, ...

There is also a cultural clash from both within and beyond Africa that prevents much aid in being dedicated.

I have a niece that studied under a Fulbright scholarship in Zambia. Her specialty was world water law, and when she left she was very excited to go and live among the people, learn, and contribute toward a better future. Her entire year was spent struggling against an un accepting bureaucracy and a gender prejudice that refused her entry into any program on any level.

In the nineties I produced then shipped dental restorations to a clinic in Kigali Rwanda, just prior to the carnage between the Hutu's and Tutsi's. Most of the restorations were not needed as a result of the civil war, or natural dental degradation from malnutrition or lack of hygiene, but rather the inter tribal customs. Nearly every restoration was for a woman whose incisors and cuspids, both maxillary and mandibular, had been extracted as an attraction to finding a mate. There was much cultural resistance trying to prevent providing this service, or so I was told by the missionaries.

Above and beyond confrontations between major religions, are tribal superstitions preventing modernization. How this could be figured into statistics of probable future change I have no idea, but it is another impediment to the future of Africa.

Also the world in general is historically very slow to respond to civil war or famine on the African continent, a seeming deep seated racial prejudice. The Clinton administration was happy to ignore the Rwanda genocide, but was equally happy to intervene in the more lucrative civil war in Yugoslavia, that promised privatized capitalist globalization and land bridges to energy. I have often cynically felt the world would let Africa starve and die off before providing investment capital to develop an agricultural infrastructure capable of being the bread basket for Europe, with the surviving African humanity providing near slave labor. A political and social progression fomented through neglect, after the post colonial uhuru had run its course. As I say these thoughts are borne of a deep seated cynicism of human compassion exhibited between races, religions and cultures, and is not a particularly healthy vision of what is possible, if not probable.

I'll try to get back tomorrow with some more positive thoughts, after absorbing more of the information in your incredible study, article, and post.

[Subdivisions]

4. Another compelling piece, GliderGuider.

Pusillanimous - now there's a word you don't see everyday. :D

[GliderGuider]

5. I've updated the article.

I was able to figure out how to link the food cost analysis I'd done into a population scenario that I've added as a second section of the model. The discussion of the paper has been re-written, and I have some harsh words to say about the world's financiers in the "Foreign Aid" section. Here's a taste of the changes:

This evidence implies that the world's money and power brokers have, without any fanfare or public announcement, given up on Africa. They have apparently adopted the position that Africa cannot be salvaged by aid or investment, and appear to be in the process of cutting the lifelines. There are some cold decisions being made in comfortable boardrooms around the world.

{...}

The most likely thing to happen is that African governments will simply not put the required amount of money towards buying imported food. This will not happen through reluctance or ulterior motives. Most of the value in an economy is tied up in capital, urgent operating expenses or household income.

With little foreign development money available and their own economies shrinking, African governments will do the best they can. They will find some money to feed their people, but it will not be enough in most cases.

{...}



Frankly, at this point it is much too late to stop the onrushing tsunami. If we in the overdeveloped world wish to make some difference in this crisis we will have to set our sights much lower. We need to think in terms of easing individual circumstances, perhaps influencing the course of events in communities or altering the progress of just one of these myriad of problems.

On a national level there is perhaps more that could be done, but the level of commitment exhibited so far by the global community inspires more disgust and despair than confidence.

[CRH]

8. So it appears the best mitigating stategy to lessen the population collapse, ...

would be if the financial institutions of Europe were to invest large sums into an agricultural infra structure, that would provide Europe with a close source of food and fiber crops.

Do you know of any sources that show present fertile agricultural regions in Africa in relation to available developable water sources. Or, any sources that show expected impact of climate change for the continent, which areas are expected to to experience desertification, calapse of rain forest, etc.? Country by country I'm sure this information is available, but for the continent in total?

Whatever can be done to lessen the imact, like everywhere else will have to happen on the local community level, and water will always be a first requirement. Buying food is not a solution, but your graphs indicate producing food comes at a substancial investment as well, an investment that the continent cannot provide even if there was total cooperation. It seems if abandoned by the world bankers as you suggest, small outreach programs seem the most realistic. Tomorrow I do some searchs into UN programs, religious missions and the like to see if there is any movement addressing this situation.

Of all the writing on peak oil, climate change, and population over shoot, there are many generalizations of the problems that will be encountered, but few articles go into depths in predicting the first flash points. Like you I think the area many of us will see deteriorate in our lifetimes is the African continent. As your research has indicated, the possibility of the beginning of the collapse happening within a decade, with catastrophic proportion in the second decade. It could well be the undeniable effects on the African continent, that wakes the rest of the world, illustrates the need to throw all resources into sustainable community developements, everywhere. It is certain, few are paying any attention now, to the coming crisis.

[GliderGuider]

9. Try these links

The UN has information on arable land and water resources:

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/current_and_potential_arable_land_use_in_africa
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/water_availability_in_africa

Here's something that's not exactly what you're looking for, but bears on it - ILRI has published a very good look at Africa's climate hot spots, and has done a lot of crop yield simulation: http://www.ilri.org/ILRIPubAware/ShowDetail.asp?CategoryID=TS&ProductReferenceNo=TS_061108_001

Regarding the best way to mitigate the collapse, I don't think the money or will is available for anyone to try and invest Africa's way out of the trap. It would cost a whole lot less to rent a fleet of C-130s and do air-drops of condoms. Seriously, if Africa could cut it's population growth in half for the next 10 years it would make everything a lot easier.

It's good to have a dream...

[CRH]

12. Thanks for the links, ...

when I get back to my computer I'll give them all a close look. Now I'm working with spanish XP and I would rather wait to explore these links with Apple english.

I, like you am skeptical of preventing collapse in the short amount of time before tipping points are likely to realized. Major infrastructure improvements even for non industrial agriculture, would take a couple of decades from ground breaking to bear fruits.

Any help that does arrive will probably be from within existing UN programs and religious charities. There are several organizations already, that for 24 - 30 dollars a month will rescue a child. As the collapse gains pace these organizations would have to exponentially grow, but they already have their feet on the ground and their relief structures tested and in practice.

Unfortunately these organizations are the last we could place hope in to offer condoms or other forms of birth control, which I agree is the first priority. Hopefully with a new administration in the Whitehouse, different leadership in the UN could return to promoting family planning in third world countries. Bush totally gutted all existing UN and government sponsored promotions of population control. It is an area that I think would have the best chance of success through letters to congress critters, rather than trying to solicit other funding. It is something that could conceivably happen within a couple of years through cooperation of the UN and world community. An ounce of prevention and education now would remove tons of foreign aid in the future.

Once again, thanks for the links, if I turn up any interesting info or think of any other potential solutions that might bear looking into I will PM you if this thread has been deeply buried.

[phantom power]

6. I wonder what impact this scenario has on African resource extraction.

Oil, metals, etc. My first guess is that increasing instability makes resource extraction harder. Although I can imagine an eventual New Colonialism, where any remaining economic powers fill a power vacuum created by population collapse.

[GliderGuider]

7. Africa becomes a prime target for another round of "Disaster Capitalism"

Large trans-national entities will make offers of significant assistance to particular countries in return for untrammeled access to their resource base. The vultures will be lining the banks of the Zambezi waiting for the feast, no doubt about it.

[cedric]

10. This report has some good stuff on climate change and security risk in Africa

amongst other locations

http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2007_engl.pdf

[GliderGuider]

11. Thanks! That look really meaty.

A weekend's reading for sure. I took a quick dip into it, and it looks like a masterful piece of work.

I'd give a moderately important body part to work on a team doing stuff like that.

[cedric]

17. That's no problem

I referenced it when I did my disseratation

[CRH]

13. Just think if this had a billion dollar investment behind it, ...

http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/2007/s2167583.htm

It could allow the irrigation of countless hectares, in local community developments across the continent. The price of the recycled reconstructed pump, could be paid with the crops produced.

A lot of little things like this at the community level, could lessen the impact greatly. There is no shortage of manual labor for community cooperatives, very little industrial input needed when transportation has been eliminated. Localized trade between communities could be accomplished with animal power.

Imagine food, tools, and clothing all exchanged in an informal local economy free of the burdens of finance and debt, threaded together one community at a time.

[GliderGuider]

15. That's the big question - why is there no desire to make the needed investment?

It's as though the whole planet has an unspoken agreement to write Africa off like a defaulted sub-prime mortgage.

[NickB79]

14. I wonder how much of the ecosystem will survive

I'd imagine that a billion starving Africans will strip the plains bare of most edible game species. The Ice Age megafauna extinction will be complete.

[GliderGuider]

16. A fellow on The Oil Drum has a mental image for this

He says that when the crunch really comes we'll eat the songbirds out of the trees. I really don't want to believe that, but the numbers are starting to get a little scary.