Global warming delayed to 3000? by 2020 weakest Schwabe Sun cycle begins - maybe

[papau]

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY (excerpts)

Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity. Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle. This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth." "Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had."

[endarkenment]

1. Nice theory

However the case for the 'little ice age' being a global phenomena is not established, nor is the causal relationship between sunspot activity and this event. Even the dates for the LIA are unclear, with start dates as early as 1250, well in advance of the Maunder Minimum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Seems to me like this is another far fetched over complicated effort to misdirect attention from the obvious.

[jgraz]

2. From Investor's Business Daily?

Pardon me if I wait for his peer-reviewed research to be published. :eyes:

(BTW, you may want to include a link to the source material.)

[papau]

6. I am on various email lists - this was an email

[kristopher]

8. Ask and ye shall receive

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=%22Tapping%22+%22MODELLING+SOLAR+MAGNETIC%22

Available for free download

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

3. K&R

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Already posted

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=132879&mesg_id=132879

Already replied to:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=132879&mesg_id=132883

[kentauros]

5. And then there's this from today's TreeHugger.com

More Evidence Shows Sun Not to Blame for Global Warming

Experts in solar science, climate modeling and atmospheric science met in Boston at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science to discuss the possible link between variability in solar energy output and global warming here on Earth.

We do know that that our sun is a variable star: “It varies by about one-tenth of one percent” in energy output, according to David H. Hathaway, a sunspot specialist from NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Hunstville, Alabama. But that doesn't seem enough to explain observed climate change. In fact, according to Casper M. Ammann, a climate modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, in the years since 1950, “there is no observed trend in solar radiation. The 11-year sunspot cycle has not been significantly abnormal."

[papau]

7. A science fact is topped by the right wings "maybe we freeze" 'cause of the "maybe" :-)