The payoff for plug-in hybrids: 95 years?

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9903014-54.html

March 26, 2008 4:00 AM PDT

The payoff for plug-in hybrids: 95 years?

Posted by Michael Kanellos

Plug-in hybrids get far better mileage than standard cars or regular hybrids--and emit far less pollution.

But they are also tough to justify economically at the moment with existing technology, according to the first several months of data from RechargeIT.org, which is studying how well plug-in hybrids work in real-world circumstances.

Plug-ins, in fact, only cut gas consumption by about 88 gallons a year over regular Priuses in urban driving. That comes to an annual savings of $158 to $250 (when you factor in the cost of electricity too). With the conversion running around $15,000, the payoff would take decades.

RechargeIT, part of Google.org, has converted four Priuses and two Ford Escapes so they can be charged from a wall socket. These cars are then used by Google employees as fleet vehicles. RechargeIT monitors the performance of the cars and then compares the data with standard Priuses in the corporate fleet as well as government data on standard cars. Data has been collected since May. There's enough data to bolster arguments for both supporters and critics of plug-ins.

...

[Kolesar]

1. Sometimes you have to "buy" efficiency technology to get significant CO2 reductions

And if electricity buyers start to buy carbon-free electricity, even at a premium price, we will have achieved the effect that we want. I envisiage home/local photovoltaics or buying wind derived electricity from the grid.

Further, I don't think that a converted "pluggable" Prius is a fair comparison. I would think a wholly electric vehicle could give you better data.

[Warpy]

6. In warm weather, I could go 6 months on a tank of gas

in my old pickup truck. My other car is a plug in electric moped, one that draws 40 watts at full charge.

I think that moped has probably paid for itself over the last 5 years when I factor in the true cost of driving a car in gas, oil, tires, wear and tear, and routine maintenance.

[Kolesar]

12. Hills

I have perused every message board I can find about electrified bicycles. I hestitant to make the purchase because I don't think I would like the results on all the grades I have to climb. I would expect it would give me another 2 mph on the 14% to 16% grades I have to climb. I expect it would not achieve 18 mph even on the 5% to 10% grades. I have 900 feet of climbing to get to work.

[Warpy]

13. I live in the southern Rockies

so trust me, we have HILLS. My electric moped hauls my flabby arse up them very quickly, much more quickly than my arthritic old bod could possibly push a bike, were it even capable of doing so.

Check out http://www.egovehicles.com

[OKIsItJustMe]

18. I've looked into the eGo

Right now, I'm interested in Giant's electric assist bike:
http://www.giant-bicycles.com/en-US/bikes/lifestyle/1272/29755/

[mrcheerful]

2. You can't expect results over night for over 100 years of abuse

There are no quick fixes left for the mess humans created in the last 100 years. That is why these things should have been started in the 1980's or sooner. But remember we had pukes saying everything was fine and there was no need to worry about the things tree huggers were predicting. The new spin is how could we have known China and India would be major players in this mess, yet wasn't that the pukes goal since Nixon opened the doors to trade with China? It all falls back to blame, ignore and spin it off games were little is done so business can continue their money grubbing scams. Want proof? Read about Midland Michigan and how the people of the city still protect Dow Chemicals right to dump toxic wastes.

[LiberalEsto]

3. I remember when hand held calculators

cost over $500. The prices have come way down over the years.

[gateley]

4. The environment is worth the cost -

and that 88 gallons a year savings doesn't sound quite right. Check out the mileage the Aptera gets on their plug-in hybrid:

http://www.aptera.com/

I'm looking forward to forgoing reliance on a fuel entirely. Tesla's all-battery car can go 200 miles on a charge, the Aptera all electric gets about 100 miles. Neither of these will be the optimal car for the majority of people, but I think they' show that battery technology is progressing. Biden introduced (and got approved) funding for research into Lithium Ion batteries, so I find that hopeful, too.

[eppur_se_muova]

5. The conversion runs $15k? For something that already has a battery?

And is designed to be rechargeable from the generator? Someone's doing some really, really, serious overcharging -- and I don't mean electricity.

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. No, the batteries are quite expensive

http://hybrids-plus.com/ht/products.html

[eppur_se_muova]

11. Ah, I hadn't realized they added quite so much battery capacity.

Still, that strikes me as a *lot* more expensive than expected. While one shouldn't extrapolate a line from two points, this looks like a 0 kWh battery would extrapolate to $16k. That doesn't seem right at all.

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. The problem is diminishing returns

When you get 40 MPG rather than 20 MPG, you cut fuel use in half!

An increase from 40 MPG to 60 MPG sounds just as dramatic (it's another increase of 20 MPG) but, in reality, it's nowhere near as dramatic.

Let's say you drive 120 miles.
In a 20 MPG car, it will take 6 gallons of fuel.
In a 40 MPG car, it will take 3 gallons of fuel. (Savings over 20 MPG: 3 gallons!)
In a 60 MPG car, it will take 2 gallons of fuel. (Savings over 40 MPG: 1 gallon!?)
In a 80 MPG car, it will take 1½ gallons of fuel. (Savings over 40 MPG: 1½ gallons!!?)
In a 120 MPG car, it will take 1 gallon of fuel. (Savings over 40 MPG: 2 gallons.)
In a 240 MPG car, it will take ½ gallon of fuel. (Savings over 40 MPG: 2½ gallons.)
In a 480 MPG car, it will take ¼ gallon of fuel. (Savings over 40 MPG: 2¾ gallons.)

That savings by going from 20 MPG to 40 MPG simply cannot be matched. In order to save 3 gallons of fuel over the the 40 MPG car (as the 40 MPG car does over the 20 MPG car) you would need an ∞ MPG car.

Now, if those increased mileage figures come at the expense of generating electricity elsewhere, say... by burning coal...

[wtmusic]

9. Still the best option

From later on in your own link (keep reading):

"The good news is that the costs of plug-ins are expected to decline, particularly when manufacturers make cars as plug-ins at the factory. If the premium drops to $5,000 or so, a plug-in fares better in terms of dollars. "You could pay it off in seven or eight years," Proudfoot said.

General Motors has said it wants to sell the Chevy Volt, a type of plug-in hybrid, for around $30,000. For a standard sedan, that's not outrageous. (A serial hybrid like the Volt will also get better mileage than a retrofit hybrid.) The plug-in nature of the Volt could be seen as an interesting, affordable luxury. Carbon taxes will also shorten any payoff time.

Batteries, meanwhile, continue to improve. Argonne National Labs is working on batteries that could let plug-ins hit the fabled and touted 100 miles per gallon standard, according to Ron Gremban at CalCars.

When you put all of these factors together, plug-in hybrids, along with cleaner diesel cars that can get 60 miles to 100 miles per gallon, remain the best ideas for cutting transportation fuel and emissions."

The reason retrofits cost so much has nothing to do with the batteries (do the batteries in a Prius cost $15,000?), but with the fact that Toyota deliberately attempted to stymie third-party Prius conversion efforts by making critical software inaccessible and self-defeating if tampered with.

[Drifter]

10. If you buy one to save money ...

you are buying it for the wrong reason.

You buy one to use less fuel. Period.

I bought a hybrid in 2005 when gas was $2.20 a gallon. I figured that it may take 15 years to recoup my investment. I do not plan to have this car for more than 10 years. I bought this car because it uses much less fuel than my previous car. As gas prices go up, it will impact you less because you use less fuel.

By a hybrid to use less fuel.

Cheers
Drifter

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. What about the ecological costs?

Remember the biggest difference here is a larger battery pack.

What are the ecological costs associated with it? (A significant amount of metal must be mined, refined, transported...)

[Drifter]

24. My point is that ...

everyone believes that you should only buy a hybrid if it saves you money on fuel.
I don't believe that should be the determining factor.

I bought mine knowing that I would probably not save money on fuel (although as prices rise) it becomes more of a possibility. I bought mine because I will use less fuel, and spew less crap into the atmosphere (mine is in the ultra-low emissions category, whatever the hell that is)

I also understand your point that the cost of this technology is larger batteries, and their environmental effects.

Cheers
Drifter

[GliderGuider]

14. What's the payoff period with gasoline at $20/gal?

There are already predictions out there of oil prices spiking to $350/bbl within 5 years. I share that expectation. At that level I'd expect the price relationship between crude oil and gasoline to break down, not least because of increases in taxation to drive demand destruction. That could result in gasoline prices spiking to $20/gal.

At $20/gallon, the 88 gallons per year the article estimates you would save would cost about $1800, for a payoff period of only 8 years.

[OKIsItJustMe]

15. "...payoff period of only 8 years..." Only if people continue to drive 12,000 miles/year.

Assuming the price of gasoline multiplied by a factor of 6 or 7 (as you suggest) I suspect people will adjust their driving habits. Driving less will stretch that payoff period out again.

[GliderGuider]

17. You're right, I didn't factor in elasticity of demand.

That means the payback period for such a conversion will probably never be less than the lifespan of the vehicle.

[IDemo]

19. They are ignoring a critical part of the equation: V2G

Vehicle to Grid was brought up yesterday in a thread here, but is invariably neglected in most discussions of the merits of EV's and plug-in hybrids. The value that a V2G equipped vehicle can provide to the grid, both in energy supply and regulation services, may actually result in a significant payback for the vehicle owner.

-- payments to individual PHEV owners using V2G technology could be as much as $2,000 to $4,000 per year per vehicle for just spinning reserve or regulation services. This is consistent with the earlier Kempton and Tomic article (“Vehicle to Grid Fundamentals”, J. Power Sources Volume 144, Issue 1, 1 June 2005), which calculates revenue up to $6,000/year/vehicle. This is a sufficient payment to the prospective CashBack hybrid purchaser to completely offset the higher incremental cost of the vehicle in less than 5 years. While these numbers assume a high-power plug and do not include costs that could reduce them by approximately half, there is still a large net payback.

Such offsetting payments have the potential to accelerate the marketability of PHEVs by 5 years or more by effectively bringing down first costs. Such payments could be incorporated into the vehicle financing, effectively eliminating all incremental first costs to the consumer and making the CashBack hybrid financed cost equivalent to a conventional gas-powered vehicle.

Excerpt from DOE PHEV R&D Plan, External Draft, March 2007

[jpak]

20. Yup - plug-ins have a huge potential for grid support with renewables

:thumbsup:

[IDemo]

21. For renewable, certainly, but for non-renewable as well

They can supply energy to the grid during peak periods of the day, when "peaker plants" (generally gas turbine) would otherwise be fired up.

[Dead_Parrot]

22. Because, let's face it...

The biosphere - and our children's future - is totally worthless, so why waste money on it?

my gods, has we really sunk this far?

[Nihil]

27. Believe it.

> my gods, has we really sunk this far?

"the paper holds their folded faces to the floor, and every day the paper boy brings more"

Sad but yes.
:-(

[tinrobot]

23. Bogus numbers based on bad data.

First off, a plug-in conversion for a Prius does not cost $15,000. You can get conversions for as little as $6,500 from companies such as Hymotion.

On top of that -- with a conversion, you typically remove the old batteries and old power management electronics. You're also paying the overhead of the conversion company. Those extra costs won't happen with a manufactured plug-in. A car manufactured as plug-in from the ground up will also be more efficient than one where new batteries are just tacked on to an existing car.

[OKIsItJustMe]

25. These cars were converted by Hymotion

http://www.google.org/recharge/partners.html
http://www.hymotion.com/pdf/GooglePressRelease.pdf

[gravity]

26. I am not surprised

The batteries are expensive, and I would think that an aftermarket solution would be more expensive than one produced by the factory.

However, I am optimistic about the future with the Chevy Volt and Toyota's future offerings. The demand is there, and companies are paying millions in R&D to come up with more cost effective solutions. Even if these cars don't make it on pure economic terms, it will help pave the way for technologies that will eventually reach the threshold.

Not to mention, it will help lower Co2 emissions.

[skids]

28. These cars weren't designed for plugin use...

...in order to be a fully effective plugin, they need more powerful electric motors so they don't have to use the gas engine as much. The electric motors are sized for the original battery packs "C" value -- it's pointless to put a honkin electric motor in when you battery cannot deliver/accept as much juice as it can draw/generate. IIRC this particular plugin kit is not designed in a way that gives a higher C, since it keeps the original pack and probably has a DC-DC converter rated at just about the same current capacity as the original pack's, so upgrading the motors (even on designs where that is mechanically practical) or overdriving them is not an option either.

I might still pick up the kit when it goes commercial, but will have to balance that against trading up for a designed-for-it PHEV.