Lukoil VP - Russian Production Has Peaked - Spiegel

[hatrack]

Moskau/London - Dramatische Warnung aus Russland: Die Erdölproduktion in Russland hat ihren Höhepunkt erreicht. Die Warnung hat nicht irgendwer ausgesprochen, sondern der Vizechef des großen russischen Ölkonzerns Lukoil, Leonid Fedun.

Im vergangenen Jahr belief sich die Fördermenge in Russland auf 9,95 Millionen Barrel pro Tag. Einen höheren Betrag werde er "in diesem Leben" wohl nicht mehr sehen, sagte Fedun der "Financial Times". Mit anderen Worten: Ab jetzt geht es mit der Fördermenge bergab. Die Einschätzung sorgte an den Märkten für Unruhe. Der Ölpreis kletterte in New York auf ein neues Rekordhoch von mehr als 113 US-Dollar pro Barrel.

Für die westlichen Industrienationen ist der Rückgang der Förderung in Russland ein Schock. Jahrelang hatten sie sich darauf verlassen, dass das Riesenreich zuverlässig Energie liefern kann - nicht zuletzt als Alternative zu den unsicheren Produzentenländern in der arabischen Welt. Mit dieser Illusion ist es nun vorbei.

Russland ist der zweitgrößte Ölproduzent der Welt nach Saudi-Arabien. Doch ausgerechnet im ölreichen Westsibirien sei "die Phase intensiven Wachstums der Ölförderung vorüber", sagte Fedun dem Bericht zufolge. Dabei verglich er Russland mit Produktionsgebieten wie der Nordsee und Mexiko, wo die Ölförderung ebenfalls stark rückläufig ist.

EDIT

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,547545,00.html

Rough translation:

Moscow/London - A dramatic warning from Russia - Russian crude oil production has reached its peak. The warning was pronounced by none other than the Vice President of the huge Russian oil firm Lukoil, Leonid Fedun.

In the past year, production totals in Russia stood at 9.95 million barrels per day. But Fedun said to the Financial Times that he will not see a higher production total "in this life". In other words, from this point out, it's all downhill. Oil prices climbed to a new record high of $113 a barrel.

For western industrialized nations, the decline of production in Russia comes as a shock. For years they had counted on the immensely rich remaining energy ressources could keep on producing - if nothing else as an alternative to the unstable (oil)-producing nations of the Arab world. The time for this illusion has come and gone.

Russia is the second-biggest oil producerint he world after Saudi Arabia. But even in oil-rich West Siberia, "the era of intensive production growth is over", said Fedun according to the report. In doing so, he compared Russia with production zones like the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production is similarly falling quickly.

[MADem]

1. Time for them to invade Iran, then--it's just next door, after all. NT

[tama]

3. Nah

That's not what Russia does, they have more than enough for domestic consumption for many many years.

What importing countries should worry is the recent example of how global rice market went puff in just couple weeks as most exporting stopped exports to be able to feed their own people.

[hatrack]

4. It's amazing how quickly the transition from "just enough" to "just not quite enough" can shift . .

nt

[tama]

2. Oops!

Don't forget your towels!

Funny that, ever since I found about Peak Oil (or rather, Club of Rome), all other bubbles pale in comparison to that of public consciousness of growthism...

[hunter]

5. Where is Buckaroo Bonzai?

The only way we are going to survive hitting this brick wall is to pass right through it into the eighth dimension.

(It concerns me quite a bit that Dick Cheney has more than a passing resemblence to Dr. Emilio Lizardo.)

[phantom power]

6. quantum electrodynamics allows for perfect tunneling

If I read the last issue of SciAm correctly, all we need to do is acquire the quantum properties of neutrinos.

Is that hard?

[tama]

7. Rock wall

My favorite image (besides deer in the headlights and Wily Coyote running on air of the cliff) is a train about to hit a rock wall, still pushing up speed as much as can on last meters. Well the engine has hit the wall allready and we are still rooting for wagons to go faster... in hope of quantum tunnel? :D