Is 450 ppm (or less) politically possible? Part 0: The alternative is humanity’s self-destruction

[RedEarth]

What happens if we fail to take the following actions to reverse emissions trends starting in 2009?

Start a cap-and-trade system that sets a serious price for CO2.
Launch most of the 14 to 16 major mitigation strategies (wedges) described here.
Begin a global effort to ban new coal plants that do not capture and store their carbon, an effort that quickly brings in China and other developing countries.
Failing to do that, we are headed to 800 to 1000 parts per million (ppm) of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The idea of stabilizing at, say, 550 or 650 ppm, widely held a decade ago, is becoming increasingly implausible given the likelihood that major carbon cycle feedbacks would go into overdrive, swiftly taking the planet to 800 ppm or more. In particular, the top 11 feet of the tundra would probably not survive 550 ppm (a point I will be blogging about soon) and two other key carbon sinks — land-based vegetation and the oceans — already appear to be saturating. That said, even if stabilizing at 550 ppm were possible, it would probably bring catastrophic impacts and in any case requires implementing some 10 wedges starting now.

At 800 to 1000 ppm, the world faces multiple miseries, including:

Sea level rise of 80 feet to 250 feet at a rate of 6 inches a decade (or more).
Desertification of one third the planet and drought over half the planet, plus the loss of all inland glaciers.
More than 70% of all species going extinct, plus extreme ocean acidification.
LIVING/SUFFERING IN A 1000 PPM WORLD


I listed only three catastrophes that would probably occur at 800 to 1000 ppm because I think those are the most serious and most inevitable. Climate scientists don’t spend a lot of time studying 800 to 1000 ppm, in part because they can’t believe humanity would be so self-destructive as to ignore their increasingly dire warnings and fail to stabilize at well below 550 ppm.

The IPCC notes that if equilibrium CO2-equivalent concentrations hit 1000 ppm, the “best estimate” for temperature increase is 5.5°C (10°F), which means that over much of the inland United States, temperatures would be about 15°F higher.

This increase would be the end of life as we know it on this planet. Interestingly, 5.5°C is just about the temperature difference between now and the end of the last ice age, the difference between a livable climate for human civilization that is well suited to agriculture and massive glaciers from the North Pole down to Indiana.

http://climateprogress.org/2008/04/26/is-450-ppm-or-less-politically-possible-part-0-the-alternative-is-humanitys-self-destruction/#more-2740

[tularetom]

1. Of all the earth's inhabitants, man is the stupidest

We've shit in our own kitchen until it is no longer usable.

I don't hold out a lot of hope that greed will suddenly take a back seat to altruism and concern for the future of the planet.

Doesn't suck too bad for me. I'm 66 years old. But we're expecting a great granddaughter in June and what kind of a mess are we leaving for her?

[Liberal Gramma]

2. I think it was George Carlin who said, "The earth will be fine."

Mankind won't survive, but the earth will. She'll shake us off like fleas on a dog, and she'll recover and go on.

[kestrel91316]

3. It's over 100 degrees here today, and it's only April.

I don't know about you, but I hope I never live to see a world 15 degrees warmer.

We are three months ahead of schedule with this summer heat. It's almost 9 PM and it's still about 85 outside (we normally only have nasty hot nights a few times in AUGUST). We had howling (yes, I mean HOWLING) Santa Ana winds last night like we see in October.

I am thinking it's pretty much finis for the human race. We just haven't noticed it yet.