Iowa State Climatologist - One In Three Chance Of Corn Belt Drought This Year - Reuters

[hatrack]

WASHINGTON - The US Midwest has enjoyed nearly 20 years without a major drought but forecasters worry the corn belt's luck could dry up this year, further squeezing tight global supplies amid soaring food prices.

With its last major drought in 1988, the Midwest has reached its average span of 18.6 years between droughts.
Considering that statistic and current weather conditions, Iowa State University extension climatologist Elwynn Taylor said the corn belt has a one in three chance of drought this year. "We do have to be prepared," Taylor said. "A 33 percent chance is high, that's a risk."

The Midwest's chances of drought are exacerbated by La Nina, an unusual cooling of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that can trigger widespread changes in global weather patterns. If La Nina has not dissipated by July, Taylor saw a 70 percent chance for US corn yields below the 30-year trend of 150.6 bushels per acre.

"We don't have any reason to think La Nina causes drought, but it certainly does aggravate it," Taylor said.

EDIT

http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/48129/story.htm

[Bluzmann57]

1. Here in eastern Iowa, it's rainy and cold

The Mississippi River is flooding, and we have entirely too much water. So if there is going to be a drought, it better be soon. Right now, farmers are having trouble planting crops because it's too damn wet.

[kestrel91316]

2. Oh, THAT would be helpful now.........

[NickB79]

3. The 1988 drought was a brute

My family almost lost the farm that year. We had to agree to a dairy herd buy-out program that was intended to reduce the number of dairy farmers and revive declining milk prices (which is ironic in retrospect, given the current cost of dairy). In return, we were paid to raise beef cattle and hogs instead.

I was only a kid, but I remember seeing all our cattle led away, including the Brown Swiss cow that was like a pet to me because I thought brown cows gave chocolate milk.

I also remember my mom and dad crying and yelling a lot, and the color of dry dirt everywhere. We pulled through, but just barely.

I hate droughts.

[Zachstar]

4. Price control programs are sick and need to be stopped.

I first learned about it in AG and how they load up ships full of food to dump in the gulf to get prices higher. It is the most disgusting thing I have ever heard of when people are perishing due to starvation.

[Zachstar]

5. Ah just what we need right now MORE food shortages due to weather.

I pray that we get fusion soon because we are heading for a decade of hard times that will make the depression look like cake walk at this rate.

[Tashca]

6. Patterns are certainly going to have to change first.

I'm in eastern Iowa too. I heard Elwyn's report last February. I wonder what La Nina is doing??? He was very convincing that this might be the drought year. He said in 800 years history it has never gone more than 23 years in this cycle.

The pattern doesn't look anything like 1988 so far. We had record snow fall here and the moisture pattern has yet to change.

I talked to a person today who has corn belt information....a few counties in Nebraska and a couple days planting in central and southern Illinois is about all of significant corn planting done.

The next story in the news is going to be this delayed planting. We are normally running hard by April 20th. No more rain and we might start May 1st.....but there is rain in the forecast.

The patterns are going to have to change significantly to bring on a drought.

The drought of 1988 was devastating here too......along with 1983. My family never did recover either. It was the beginning of the end of 6 generations of farmers.......

[Strelnikov_]

8. Elwynn seems to get it right a lot of the time

I agree, though, feels like he is going out on a limb on this one.

At least we are starting out with good soil moisture, if it does come to pass.

[emmadoggy]

7. Another Iowan checking in...

The 1988 drought was nasty. I remember it well because it was the summer leading up to my wedding in September of that year. It was beastly hot and so dry it made you want to weep for just a tiny little sprinkle of rain. I remember days when it was windy and the air would be brown and choky with dust. Ugh. Don't want to see that again.

However, for the past 9 months we have been having record wet/cold. As a matter of fact, I was just reading this write-up on the NWS website today regarding our area...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=arx&storyid=14427&source=0

Some very interesting statistics. Unless something changes dramatically and rapidly, I find it hard to believe that this will be a drought year - at least in our local area. I know that western Iowa and western and northern Minnesota were fairly dry last year and that trend could continue in those areas this year. I can tell you that people in my area are completely fed up with the weather pattern we have been stuck in for months now. People are aching for a nice week of warmth and sunshine, but there is more rain in the forecast for the next three days and continued below normal temps. This past Sunday and Monday, I'm not sure if we even hit 40 degrees (maybe mid 40's for a while on Sunday - before it clouded up and rained) and it was windy and snowed. Not unheard of weather for late April here, but normally it is a fluke day or two amidst the more normal weather - but this year, colder-than-normal and/or wetter-than-normal has become the norm rather than the exception. Trees and plants are budding later than usual and I'm not sure if I've seen ANY activity in the fields yet by the farmers.

:-(