ASPO: Peak Oil in 2007

[Strelnikov_]

The eagle has landed.

http://www.aspo-ireland.org/index.cfm?page=viewNewsletterArticle&id=43

http://www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter89_200805.pdf

The Depletion Model, used herein, is subject to continual revision as new information, however unreliable, and insight come in. It does not pretend to offer a definitive picture but rather an evolving approximation. Nevertheless, despite the uncertainties of detail, the overall pattern can be presented with some confidence.

This revision (see table and graph on Page 2) is based on an update of the deepwater situation, revising the previous version made in 2005. The model considers the four main deepwater countries (Angola, Brasil, Nigeria and USA) and lumps the remainder together. The previous version came to a total ultimate production of 68 Gb, which has been increased to 85 Gb. The earlier model was based on Hubbert depletion profiles, but this has been abandoned in better recognition that the rate of deepwater production is likely to be constrained by the capacity of floating production facilities delivering more of a plateau than a peak. Deepwater oil is very costly to produce, and investment limits are a constraint.

The new deepwater model has the effect of advancing the date of the overall peak of all liquids from 2010 to 2007, and is actually good news insofar as the lower and sooner the peak, the gentler the subsequent decline. The precise date is of no particular significance since it is not a high isolated peak, being no more than the maximum of a fairly gentle curve. But if correct, it might carry a certain psychological impact to recognise that the Second Half of the Oil Age has begun. Certainly this is consistent with the current world financial crisis, soaring oil and food prices, deepening recession, and consequential riots and political tensions in many countries. New military threats are being made against Iran, as the consumers become increasingly desperate for access to oil supply, much of which lies in the Middle East. Mr Malthus must be turning in his grave.

[GliderGuider]

1. Some of us with less to lose already identified 2007 as Peak Year.

Well, Boone Pickens and Matt Simmons did too, so we punters are in good company.

I expect we'll see the first clear signs of output decline by the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of 2009. The game is afoot!

[phantom power]

2. I had been sticking with 2005. What did I miss?

[pscot]

3. Maybe the difference between liquid petroleum (2005)

and all liquids, which includes LNG and ethanol, which has been rising.

[GliderGuider]

4. It all depends on how you parse the word "oil"

2005 is peak C&C. 2007 is peak All Liquids.