Raymond James Study - "No Chance World Will Build Oil Supply Cushion"; Non-OPEC "Struggling"

[hatrack]

With oil production in non-OPEC countries “permanently” peaking in five years or less, and with OPEC “struggling to bring fresh capacity online,” there is no chance the world will build an oil supply “cushion” in the foreseeable future, thus “even minor supply disruptions are bound to have a large impact on prices.”

That’s the grim assessment of the Houston-based energy analysts at Raymond James & Associates, the brokerage firm. Their report, issued yesterday, spells further trouble for all concerned, but especially for American motorists who are already struggling under the weight of $4-a-gallon gasoline, for it is bound to give the oil market’s financial players further reason to bid up light sweet crude, which yesterday again set a record, topping $120 a barrel on news of possible supply disruptions in Nigeria.

Indeed, the Raymond James report suggests that the market may be about to raise the risk premium on a barrel of crude, which now stands at very roughly $10 to $20 a barrel, as “overall growth in global oil supply appears . . . barely sufficient to keep up with demand,” to quote Raymond James. This might raise the spot crude price to $130 to $150 a barrel this summer, pushing gasoline above $4 a gallon in most or all of the U.S., not just in California, New York and other traditionally high-priced states.

The impact of all this likely will be keenly felt on the campaign trail, where the battle over whether to suspend the federal gasoline tax through the summer keeps growing. The impact could also be serious for major oil refiners, because they are unlikely to be able to increase the price of their gasoline fast enough to keep up with rising crude costs.

EDIT

http://energytechstocks.com/wp/?p=1182