You want to see how totally whacky....

[Bigmack]

the Right is about oil availability?

I put a full-body condom on and visited over in Freeperland. They are all worked up about the price of oil, of course, and how the Democrats hate the US and are attempting to destroy the country by not allowing any supply from the US to be developed.

One of the clowns says there is 600 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken field in North Dakota. The Kiplinger Business Resource Center has an article today that's a little less confident. It says "up to 100 billion barrels".
http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/forecast/archive/The_U.S._Poised_to_hit_New_Oil_Gusher_080317.html
Fox is even more reserved, citing 4.3 billion barrels.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,349728,00.html
Fox - the home of bullshit stories - says 4.3 billion, and a Freeper hears 600 billion.

An article from Investors Business Daily says "20 billion barrels in ANWAR and 30 billion barrels offshore".
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=295831226052594
You guys know the estimates of ANWAR depend on who is talking, but 50 billion all together....?

No wonder the unread think there's lots of oil, if only the US would drill for it. Rush Limbaugh, IBDaily, Kiplinger, and Fox are telling them about all these huge finds, but neglecting to mention that the technology to retrieve that oil is simply not there, and that any of these extraction methods use enormous amounts of energy and/or water.

All this sounds like "Faith-Based" oil policy.... If you believe hard enough, it will be there.

[leftofcool]

1. "faith based oil"

Would that be like turning water into oil? I believe! I believe!

[Strelnikov_]

2. You don't have to go that far

We're "environmental"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3313554&mesg_id=3314192

[Strelnikov_]

3. Oil Drum writeup on Bakken

Easy oil it ain't.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3868

Conclusions

1. The Bakken shale has produced about 111 million barrels of oil during the last 50+ years in Montana and North Dakota.

2. Total Bakken production is still rising, and producing at the rate of 75,000 BOPD in October 2007.

3. Because of the highly variable nature of shale reservoirs, the characteristics of the historical Bakken production, and the fact that per-well rates seem to have peaked, it seems unlikely that total Bakken production will exceed 2x to 3x current rate of 75,000 BOPD.

. . .


0.225 M bbl/dy peak rate. We're saved.

[tularetom]

4. US oil consumption = 20 million barrels per day

At this rate the "600 billion barrels" would last 82 years.

Using the more conservative figures of 20 billion (ANWR) and 30 billion (offshore) and 4.3 billion (bakken) the actual remaining oil would last 7.5 years.

7.5 years - not very long.

Better get out the ol' bicycle.

[bhikkhu]

5. Flow rate is more important, and more useful

The estimate for ANWAR is 1 mbpd when fully developed, giving it a lifespan of 20 yrs and a contribution to our oil consumption of 4%.

Offshore is harder to say. Deepwater can take longer to develop, but then peak and decline very quickly. I don't know enough of the geology involved to say much.

Bakken is probably similar to other oil shale formations - massive and very low quality. If you find some means of extracting usable oil that works and has a somewhat positive EROI, you can probably keep pulling oil out for centuries (minimal flow expected). But thats a big "if"...it hasn't been done yet because it really doesn't work.