Electric car? It's not unthinkable any longer (Maine)

[jpak]

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=190310&ac=PHnws

FALMOUTH — I'm sitting behind the wheel of the future. In front of me, traffic whizzes by on busy Route 1.

I turn the key. Nothing.

"OK," Kal Rogers says with a let's-roll smile. "Car's on."

Maybe it was the news late last week that gas passed the $4-per-gallon mark up in Calais. Maybe it's too many weeks of watching the pump hit $50, no $60, oh-my-God-not $70 as I fill up my thirsty Toyota Tacoma. Maybe it's simple curiosity.

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[fight4my3sons]

1. I wonder how they are in the snow?

I didn't even know that place existed. I have to go check it out. Thanks for posting. :)

[Pab Sungenis]

2. The real killer, other than the speed limitations

is not MPG but MPC (miles per charge-up). How far can it go, and how long to recharge it?

That's what has made all-electric vehicles impractical over time.

[madokie]

6. I think thats not so much a problem in most cases

I know if we had an ev that would go hell only 20 miles on a charge it would do with 95% of our driving. Be simple to have a fossil fueled vehicle as a second auto to be used for those long distances. Like in our case we need to have a pick'em up truck anyway so it could conceivably be that second vehicle. Mostg recharging would be done in the off hours so there wouldn't be much added capacity at the power plants needed either. imo

[CRF450]

16. Maybe for the urban folks who live close to their job.

But 95%, naw I dont see that at all. Even just cruising around town, it doesn't take long at all to rack up some miles. Unless theres an EV that can get 200+ miles on a single charge and isn't a little box car, I'll stick with my current vehicles.

[GreenPartyVoter]

15. Yer sig pic is priceless! *high five*

[Sinistrous]

3. And the electric power generation capacity to feed a fleet of electric cars

will come from where?

I think the fact that the construction costs of new generation capacit has doubled or tripled (depending on the mix of types) since 2000 is a factor that must be considered.

[jpak]

4. Maine exports ~40% of the electricity generated in-state

50% of that is from renewable resources (biomass and hydro) and wind power growing fast (700+ MW on-shore in development).

[Sinistrous]

5. I am thinking of a natioal fleet. Sorry I didn't make that clear.

And, any significant fleet of electric cars will consume any surplus Maine might be experiencing at the moment. Perhaps alternative energy will help if we are able to increase capacity from those sources by a factor of several thousands.

[IDemo]

7. From where it does already

The "Mileage from megawatts" study conducted by the DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory shows that a large percentage of our light vehicle fleet could be powered with excess capacity from the existing grid:

For the United States as a whole, up to 84% of U.S. cars, pickup trucks, and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) could be supported by the existing infrastructure, although the local percentages vary by region. Using the LDV fleet classification, which includes cars, pickup trucks, SUVs, and vans, the technical potential is 73%. This has an estimated gasoline displacement potential of 6.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, or approximately 52% of the nation’s oil imports.

http://www.pnl.gov/news/release.asp?id=204

http://www.pnl.gov/energy/eed/etd/pdfs/phev_feasibility_analysis_combined.pdf

[diane in sf]

8. most electric utilities' power is under-utilized at night, this is why PG&E and

other power providers are pushing for plug-in vehicles.

[kristopher]

9. Are you factoring in the increased efficiency of battert electric drive?

All we need to do is replace the amount of power that is used to propel the vehicles of this nation down the road. There is a huge difference.
Internal combustion engine: 12% efficient.
Battery electric drive: 90%+ efficient.

It matters.

We consume 40,000,000,000,000,000 (40 quadrillion) BTUs per year of refined petroleum.

Our personal transportation infrastructure is about 75% of that.

How many quads to we have to add to the grid if we shift our personal transportation to battery electric drive.

[bhikkhu]

21. Your figures leave out quite a bit

That 90% is energy output vs input on a test bench. 90% is fantastic, and a level of efficiency unapproachable by other means, but to get the net efficiency of an electric car you have to look at the efficiency of the original generation of power, transmission losses, charging losses, battery losses, etc.

http://www.electroauto.com/info/pollmyth.shtml

Down aways into the site it give net efficiency energy efficiency of the electric car as 28%, all things considered, while gas cars (ICE for internal combustion engines) are at 14%. So they are twice as efficient, net, which is still fantastic.

The importance of the numbers is that we need a realistic estimate of how much additional grid capacity will be necessary to convert our transportation sector to electric...

[kristopher]

22. My figures, rough as they are, are more accurate than those based on EV1 performance.

First, the numbers you point to are based on the EV1, and are therefore substantially out of date. 90+% is entirely achievable with current technology.

Second, you are mixing different arguments. The question I answered was "how much new generation capacity to we need to add to the grid if we move our personal transportation sector to battery electric?" My answer is specific to that question and stands as a reasonably correct, back-of-the-envelope answer. Note that all references in the document you referred to are from the early to mid 90s. Someone just posted a link to this analysis that asks the question from the slightly different perspective of how much of our transportation needs could be met by existing infrastructure:

Abstract
The U.S. electric power infrastructure is a strategic national asset that is underutilized most of the time.
With the proper changes in the operational paradigm, it could generate and deliver the necessary energy
to fuel the majority of the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet. In doing so, it would reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, improve the economics of the electricity industry, and reduce the U.S. dependency on
foreign oil. Two companion papers investigate the technical potential and economic impacts of using
the existing idle capacity of the electric infrastructure in conjunction with the emerging plug-in hybrid
electric vehicle (PHEV) technology to meet the majority of the daily energy needs of the U.S. LDV
fleet.

This initial paper estimates the regional percentages of the energy requirements for the U.S. LDV stock
that could potentially be supported by the existing infrastructure, based on the 12 modified North
American Electric Reliability Council regions, as of 2002. For the United States as a whole, up to 84%
of U.S. cars, pickup trucks, and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) could be supported by the existing
infrastructure, although the local percentages vary by region. Using the LDV fleet classification, which
includes cars, pickup trucks, SUVs, and vans, the technical potential is 73%. This has an estimated
gasoline displacement potential of 6.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, or approximately 52% of
the nation’s oil imports. The paper also discusses the impact on overall emissions of criteria gases and
greenhouse gases as a result of shifting emissions from millions of individual vehicles to a few hundred
power plants. Overall, PHEVs could reduce greenhouse gas emissions with regional variations
dependent on the local generation mix. Total NOX emissions may or may not increase, dependent on the
use of coal generation in the region. Any additional SO2 emissions associated with the expected
increase in generation from coal power plants would need to be cleaned up to meet the existing SO2
emissions constraints. Particulate emissions would increase in 8 of the 12 regions. The emissions in
urban areas are found to improve across all pollutants and regions as the emission sources shift from
millions of tailpipes to a smaller number of large power plants in less-populated areas. This paper
concludes with a discussion about possible grid impacts as a result of the PHEV load as well as the
likely impacts on the plant and technology mix of future generation-capacity expansions.
...

SUMMARY
The results of the technical potential analysis are listed below:

[kristopher]

23. Continued...

[bhikkhu]

25. It depends upon what the question is.

Can the engine of an electric car operate at an average efficiency of 90%? Yes, and anyone familiar with the inefficiencies inherent in the mechanics of any industry or process should be suitably impressed. That 10% is lost almost entirely to heat, by the way.

If the question is "How much capacity would we need to add to the electrical power grid to power our fleet of vehicles with electricity?" then you have to look not just at electricity to the engine, but the losses between power generation and power use.

Using this article: http://www.electroauto.com/info/pollmyth.shtml

Say you need to get 1000 btu's (arbitrary number) of work out of a transportation vehicle.

1st, between power plant and end user a standard industry figure for power loss is 7%. In the article I cited 5% is used. Either way it works out about the same and derives from a myriad of small things as well as the inevitable physics involved.

2nd, electric cars run from batteries which chemically store electrical potential. The power has to go in before it can come out, and the process of charging a common lead-acid battery is about 88% efficient, with 12% being lost to heat generation. I haven't found whether this number is better in other types of battery, but I wouldn't expect too much.

Only 3rd is the vehicle efficiency, which you give as 90% and this article gives as 88%. I don't know in either case if factors such as wind resistance and rolling resistance are factored in, but the numbers are close enough.


Going over just these numbers, to get 1000 btu's of work from an engine operating at 90% efficiency, you have to use 1111 btu's of battery power. To get 1111 btu's of power into the battery you consume 1262 btu's of electrical power. To get 1262 btu's of electrical power to an end-user 1328 btu's of power has to be generated. So looking at it this way, an electric vehicle uses effectively 75% of the power generated to power it. Which is still very good.

This 75% differs from the figure in the article because it is doesn't include inefficiencies in the generation of electricity. If you look at the figures small differences may come from different ways of estimating, or from improvements in technology, but essentially we are dealing with the same technology and basic physics as we were in the seventies. Sorry to be nitpicking, but no criticism really was intended. I just think the question is important enough to answer with good numbers (though I know this still doesn't quite answer the question!).

To be continued, I am sure :)

[kristopher]

26. It's not 'nitpicking'

However, you do seem to be attempting (for whatever reason) to disparage the scale of energy/emission savings that can be achieved by switching to battery electric. You wrote "Your figures leave out quite a bit
That 90% is energy output vs input on a test bench. 90% is fantastic, and a level of efficiency unapproachable by other means, but to get the net efficiency of an electric car you have to look at the efficiency of the original generation of power, transmission losses, charging losses, battery losses, etc.

What I posted was a few numbers off the top of my head to draw attention to the actual dynamics at work in evaluating the technologies involved; it wasn't a treatise on overall system efficiency of grid electric vs point source power. A very short time ago, you were making essentially the same claim I responded to above: that an amount of power equal to that packed in our petroleum consumption had to be shifted to to grid as a cost of switching to EVs. Now, from my point of view, you are trying to muddy the waters about the difference between the relative efficiencies of the two systems. I have been pretty clear in most discussions that I'm referring to vehicle efficiency. I understand your points of system losses and overall system efficiency, however it seems to me that the way you are introducing that into the discussion is not being done in a manner to promote greater understanding of the circumstances we are dealing with. Since the greatest sources of inefficiency in the current system are in the losses associated with thermal generation, we also need to allow for fact that the GOAL is one of eliminating the fossil fuels used in most thermal generation; fossil fuels that are a primary driver of global warming.

Overall the scenario is one where initial efficiency increases (and dramatic reductions in petroleum use) are realized by switching the light vehicle fleet to battery electric. This is low hanging fruit from the view of energy efficiency as it requires little additional infrastructure investment outside of the normal rotation of automobiles for the driving public. Investment in Smart Grid infrastructure should accompany the deployment of electric vehicles. Combining the Smart Grid with plug in battery electrics serves as the means for allowing very high penetration of renewables into the grid. Then, instead of looking at a grid with a maximum of 20% of the generation from intermittent renewable sources, we are looking at a grid that can function on nearly 100% renewable sources.

Each step in this process is individually desirable, yielding large efficiency increases together with large emission decreases. Collectively, these steps represent a workable plan to meet our energy needs in a manner that doesn't wreak ecological havoc on the planet.

I believe that your presentation might benefit if you were to check the efficiency and power/weight ratios of the lithium batteries being used and in the pipeline for near term future use. These are not just dressed up lead acid batteries.

[bhikkhu]

27. I really want to just agree with you...

I expect to be driving an electric vehicle of some sort within a year, and I have been actively shopping and looking into options.

and I think it is progress if I have worked through the numbers and gotten a 75% efficiency potential, against the 90% you said originally. As estimates go, those are pretty close.

but then you roll out more things that I have no idea about, and seem to be plucked from thin air: "Combining the Smart Grid with plug in battery electrics serves as the means for allowing very high penetration of renewables into the grid. Then, instead of looking at a grid with a maximum of 20% of the generation from intermittent renewable sources, we are looking at a grid that can function on nearly 100% renewable sources."

I understand that the efficiency gains of a fully utilized grid might allow the powering of transport without needing a big expansion of nuclear and coal plants. That was the first bone of contention, as excessive electric demands would need to be satisfied. I haven't worked out all the numbers, but even if they are twice or three times as bad as the first work-up (8 or 12 quads in btu's), simple conservation down to the level the Europeans practice already, while maintaining an equivalent standard of living, would support the needs of transport without additional plants. So I agree there and admit the potential, and that is something quite promising.

But now you introduce the notion that this somehow leads to a grid powered by 100% renewables? Without undue drama (on my part), at least give me a rundown of the scenario you envisage.

[kristopher]

29. Read up on V2G technology

Intermittent renewables require storage. Plug in electrics provide storage in a cost effective manner. The smart grid makes it possible to efficiently manage both dispersed generation and storage.

The initial reaction is to doubt the capability car batteries to serve this purpose, but that is a serious 'misunderestimation' as our fearless leader might say.

I did a quick google and this link has some decent information linked. I saw both substantive analysis and some 'vision' pieces that seem like reasonable extrapolation.
http://www.cascadiaproject.org/technologyandenergy/pluginhybrids.php

Check this first, the link is towards the bottom: Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles On Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids; Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 12/06.

It doesn't deal with the latest question, but it addresses your earlier desire for firm numbers and helps establish a sense of potential scope for the change we might see. I thought I'd included the link earlier with the abstract, but it seems to have disappeared.

[Dead_Parrot]

31. Quite

The prospect of coming home from work with half a tank, plugging in, and waking up with fuck-all juice is.... simply beyond words.

[kristopher]

33. ??waking up with fuck-all juice??

I'm guessing you mean no fuel. If that's correct, it means you don't understand the concept. No one requires you to participate in making your vehicle storage available to utilities; it is a voluntary economic arrangement. The system as planned allows the owner to program the amount of total capacity that will be available to the utility.

If you mean "waking up with fuck-all juice" as a way of describing waking with a full charge, then I agree, it would be a good feeling.

[jpak]

37. I came home last night - half in the tank

plugged in, and woke up with fuck-all juice...

:evilgrin:

[Fledermaus]

34. 90% efficiency is pie in the sky.

Not counting power plant and line losses, electric cars could, some time in the near future, be about 70% efficient.

Battery chargers are used to turn AC into DC and charge up batteries. A good battery charger is about 90% efficient

90% Battery efficiency?...power in vs power out Yes, thats bench test only. Battery efficiency is measured with a steady current drain. Something that wont happen in an electric car.

Motor control electronics and motor efficincy...together about 85% efficient.

If you are willing to accept 90% battery efficiency as a reality, then thats 65% total efficiency.

I'm not saying that eclectic cars are a bad thing, but 90% efficiency is not reality.

[TheWraith]

10. 20% of our grid power goes unused at night.

Currently, that energy is just wasted. But if people are charging cars at night, that electricity would reduce gas use.

[JohnWxy]

11. somebody needs to contact VRB Power in Canada - vanadium redox batteries - link provided.

http://www.vrbpower.com/


The VRB Energy Storage System (VRB-ESS) is an electrical energy storage system based on the patented vanadium-based redox regenerative fuel cell that converts chemical energy into electrical energy. Energy is stored chemically in different ionic forms of vanadium in a dilute sulphuric acid electrolyte. The electrolyte is pumped from separate plastic storage tanks into flow cells across a proton exchange membrane (PEM) where one form of electrolyte is electrochemically oxidized and the other is electrochemically reduced. This creates a current that is collected by electrodes and made available to an external circuit. The reaction is reversible allowing the battery to be charged, discharged and recharged.

[JohnWxy]

12. "a sticker price of $18,135". Now THAT IS interesting!

[tinrobot]

13. Here's the catch

Rogers, the fledgling company's marketing director, has invited me to take this and two other vehicles for a spin up and down Route 1. But there's a catch: We must stay within the 35 mph speed zone because while these babies might save the planet and the pocketbook, they're prohibited by law from going more than 25 mph.

A lot of electric cars at this point are glorified golf carts. That's slowly changing with the advent of cheaper, lighter, and more powerful batteries.

[Finishline42]

14. That might be true in some cases but

It has to do with crash testing to be certified by the govt and that costs millions of dollars.

These cars don't look like golf carts.

http://www.milesev.com/#zx40.swf

[tinrobot]

17. They might not look like golf carts.

But at a top speed of 25mph, they drive like golf carts.

I'll wait until their $39,000 "high speed sedan" ships.

[bad_robbie]

20. They're real cars . . .

The speed limitation is either no problem for you or a real "show-stopper" as an old boss of mine would say. If the place you live or work (and all the routes in-between) are highways or 45mph "parkways", then these little cars are not for you. I test-drove a ZENN last week. It's definitely a real car. It's got seat belts, real doors, power windows and a sun roof. Air conditioning is available. You can equip it with a stereo. The dealer I spoke to said he orders all his inventory cars without a radio installed -- most customers would prefer to either save the money or supply their own audio system. In its element, it feels like any other car. Regenerative braking gets a little getting used to, the ZENN begins to decelerate as soon as you take your foot off the accelerator.

Driving around in a small-town business district and the surrounding residential areas, the 25mph limitation was not an issue. Since I work out of my home, the car would serve to run errands that need more cargo capacity than the bicycle or when I didn't want to get wet in the rain or snow. I'd probably have to trailer it home if I bought one, though, since the dealer is about 40 miles away. I might be the ideal customer: since my wife is the one who works outside the home, she'd keep her conventional car, which we could use on long trips or to carry more than 2 people. I did a little Google mapping to locate the nearest car rental places within the NEV's range-- I figure that in the event I needed to do some business travel or transport large items I could rent an appropriate vehicle for those purposes.

The speed limit can be raised on some of these NEVs, too. And it's legal in some states. It's probably not to likely to get you caught even when it isn't technically legal, assuming you're obeying the posted speed limit for other vehicles.

If it happens, I'll post about my experiences.

[NNadir]

18. Wait until the Sable Island gas fields dry up. Maine's not going to have electricity.

The car culture being pushed by Walmart's man in the greenwashing business, anti-nuke fundie Amory Lovins is dying, and electric cars from Toy's R Us ain't going to save it, any more than the stupid wind to hydrogen plants on Utsira could save it.

[jpak]

19. That's just plain ignorant and stupid. Sable Island gas was interrupted for several days this winter

All of Maine's gas fired power plants went off-line.

Did Maine go dark?

Nope.

Maine exports 40% of the electricity it produces - those gas-fired power plants supply southern New England - not Maine.

Maine got along just fine without Sable Island gas.

Why???

Because Maine currently produces most of its in-state power demand from hydro, biomass and wind.

Unlike Nuclear New Jersey (Which Is a Fraud) which *imports* 35% of its electricity from out-of-state fossil fuel plants (and more coming from WV coal plants), Maine will do just fine when the crunch comes...

:rofl:

[Greyskye]

24. Electric Motorcycle as well

Without the 25mph speed limit to boot. :evilgrin:

I'm seriously looking at this for a commuter vehicle. Even fully loaded with touring cases and windscreen, it comes in at around $10K. Not too shabby...







http://www.electricmotorsport.com/store/ems_electric_motorcycle_gpr-s.php

A zero emissions street legal Electric Motorcycle for light commuters and motorcycle enthusiast alike. The 14.2 kilowatt electric drive system and Hi-Power Lithium batteries allow this light weight electric motorcycle to briskly accelerate to freeway speeds.
Motor: Etek-RT
Power: 14.2 kW
Top Speed: 70 mph
Range: 35 / 60 miles (power / Economy)
Brakes: Dual Hydraulic Disk
Charge Time: 4 hours with stock on board charger or 1.5 hr W/ Optional speed charger with integrated BMS.

[bhikkhu]

28. Thanks for that link - I've been looking for one of those

My first step is to get rid of a 12 mpg dinosaur I have, and haven't started for two years. At this rate, it is never moving again by its own power in spite of the money and time and sentiment I had in it, and I am donating it to our NPR vehicle donation program. Which leaves me with some room. I had thought of a gas scooter or cycle, but electric is so much more promising...

[Greyskye]

30. Not a problem

I have an inquiry in with them asking for some more details on their production status. Their facility is in Oakland CA, which is only about 1.5 hours from me. If I get more serious about this I might see if I can arrange for a test ride on a weekend. Not sure how likely that is, as they only list weekday hours on their website. :shrug:

So far I haven't found any consumer reviews, although a number of folks seem to be eagerly waiting for a chance to try one out.

[Greyskye]

35. Just received email reply from the ebike people:

I emailed them a few questions earlier this week, and just received their reply. FYI:

> When are you anticipating this bike to be in production?

In about one week

> From everything I can research, it appears that you are still only taking pre-orders?
Yes

> Are any of these bikes in the hands of consumers yet?
No not yet, but the first units are arriving later this month and a full container is arriving on july 14th.

> I really like what I've seen so far, but am a little leery of making a commitment before the bugs are worked out of the initial run.

Thats always a good Idea.

> Thanks for any info you can give me beyond what your website has.

Will add you to the update list

If you're interested, I'd suggest emailing them and asking to be added to the 'update list'.

Cheers.

[IDemo]

36. One of those would be great

but if you're comfortable working on bikes and have some welding know-how, you can build one yourself for significantly less. The one pictured below was built for $3000, including the original bike (without motor). An electric car conversion project would take up too much garage space and cost too much (for me), but I might be tempted to pursue one of these:

http://www.electricmotion.org/

[Greyskye]

38. If I were handier...

...I might give that some consideration. But the speed/distance limitations on that conversion (45mph/20-30 miles) as well as the long charge time (~6 hours) make it pretty much a non-starter for me. My commute requires a minimum of 55mph, and the distance limit is right on the hairy edge for me - complicated by being in the Sierra foothills, which makes for an abundance of hills to deal with, which cuts the distance figures by a significant factor.

Nice conversion web-site though. I like his step-by-step process instructions. I'm sure that swapping out those lead-acid batteries for newer lithium batteries would show a decent speed/distance improvement as well.

[IDemo]

39. He's using a 6-to-1 sprocket ratio, which explains the limit on top speed

With a 72 volt battery pack and that motor, he could easily go to a 4/1 or 4.5/1 ratio and achieve greater speeds, but that would also affect the range. Lithium ion batteries are really the way to go but obviously much more expensive. Myself, I would probably be fine with a 15 mile range and a 45-50 mph top speed.

[mainegreen]

32. If I could afford it, I would get it. 95% of my driving in in Portland/Westbrook.

I hardly ever get above 35 in traffic anyways.