SCIENTISTS have warned that the impact of global warming is accelerating well beyond a forecast made by UN experts two years ago. Sea levels this century may rise several times higher than predictions made in 2007 that form the scientific foundation for policymakers today, a meeting meeting of climate experts has heard.
In March 2007, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming, if unchecked, would lead to a devastating amalgam of floods, drought, disease and extreme weather by the century end. The world's oceans would creep up 18cm to 59 centimetres, enough to wipe out several small island nations and wreak havoc for tens of millions living in low-lying deltas in east Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Africa.
But a new study, presented at the Copenhagen meeting overnight, factored in likely water runoff from disintegrating glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, and found the rise could be much higher.
The IPCC estimate had been based largely on the expansion of oceans from higher temperatures, rather than meltwater and the impact of glaciers tumbling into the sea. Using the new model, "we get a range of sea level rise by 2100 between 75cm and 190cm when we apply the IPCC's temperature scenarios for the future", said climate expert Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
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