UK Chief Scientist - Expect Perfect Storm Of Environmental, Energy, Migration Problems By 2030

[hatrack]

A "perfect storm" of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources threaten to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people flee from the worst-affected regions, the UK government's chief scientist will warn tomorrow. In a major speech to environmental groups and politicians, Professor John Beddington, who took up the position of chief scientific adviser last year, will say that the world is heading for major upheavals which are due to come to a head in 2030.

He will tell the government's Sustainable Development UK conference in Westminster that the growing population and success in alleviating poverty in developing countries will trigger a surge in demand for food, water and energy over the next two decades, at a time when governments must also make major progress in combating climate change. "We head into a perfect storm in 2030, because all of these things are operating on the same time frame," Beddington told the Guardian. "If we don't address this, we can expect major destabilisation, an increase in rioting and potentially significant problems with international migration, as people move out to avoid food and water shortages," he added.

Food prices for major crops such as wheat and maize have recently settled after a sharp rise last year when production failed to keep up with demand. But according to Beddington, global food reserves are so low – at 14% of annual consumption – a major drought or flood could see prices rapidly escalate again. The majority of the food reserve is grain that is in transit between shipping ports, he said.

"Our food reserves are at a 50-year low, but by 2030 we need to be producing 50% more food. At the same time, we will need 50% more energy, and 30% more fresh water.

EDIT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/mar/18/perfect-storm-john-beddington-energy-food-climate

[ClarkUSA]

1. Some countries need to practice strict population control to help mitigate these kind of problems.

Too bad it is not a standard policy in many poor, environmentally-ravaged countries in Africa, Mexico, South America and Asia.

[polly7]

2. Every country is going to need to start practicing some sort of

population control, or at least start looking at it realistically, imo. These resources are not finite. The world's next wars will be over food, and water. If all of us start practicing smart, environmentally friendly practices and quit thinking we deserve more of those very same things others are dying of, this world might have a chance. If we keep up the way we are ....... it's going to get ugly. jmo

[ClarkUSA]

5. Absolutely.

[GliderGuider]

4. Only one nation on the planet has attempted a population control policy.

China's OCPF policy was only possible because of their strong central government, the Chinese cultural tradition of valuing the group above the individual, and their position as the most populous nation on Earth. I suspect that in any nation lacking one of those three factors, voluntary population control policies will be extremely difficult to implement. Even at that, the policy has only slowed, not stopped China's population growth.

Population control is one of those factors necessary to prevent calamity that will be undertaken only as a result of calamity.

As the human situation gets more and more serious, our population will ultimately decline. Part of the decline will be involuntary, as food supplies decline and disease levels rise. Part of it will be through voluntary fertility control. While fertility control may be supported by some governments, it will largely be a result of individual decisions based on changes in perceived economic opportunity.

[ClarkUSA]

6. Actually India tried it under Indira Ghandi, too, but it was an epic fail due to cultural outrage.

I agree with your other points, though.

[Delphinus]

3. From what I read in the article,

he's a population professor, Beddington was professor of applied population biology at Imperial College London. but doesn't address population growth in earnest. Although, he might when he talks to the conference tomorrow.

Population is the 600 pound gorilla in the room.