"Zero Chance" Of US Signing Climate Legislation Before Copenhagen, Say Obama Administration Sources

[hatrack]

THERE is "zero chance" of climate change legislation being signed by the US before the UN Copenhagen summit in December, according to sources close to the Obama administration. Despite the emergence of an ambitious draft bill in the US Congress this week, which was seized upon by the Greens and environmental lobby groups in Australia as proof the Rudd Government was not going far enough in its own climate change legislation, significant doubts remain about the progress of any legislation in the US.

The bill, introduced by chairman of the energy and commerce committee Henry Waxman, stunned climate change proponents with its aggressive call for carbon emissions to be cut by 20 per cent by 2020, from 2005 levels. But it is seen by many in Washington as simply an ambit claim in US climate change legislation stakes. Moves towards a comprehensive cap and trade system are being blasted by Republicans as a tax increase and senior Democrats and moderate Republicans have been pouring cold water this week on expectations of anything happening this year. While Australian Greens senator Christine Milne characterised the Waxman bill this week as a sign the US had seized the leadership role and was surpassing countries such as Australia, the reality is very different in the US capital.

The signals publicly - and more emphatically privately - are that the best President Barack Obama can hope for going into Copenhagen is, in the words of one source, "something credible to point to". This means at best legislation that is still likely to be working its way through the Senate.

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At least three Republicans would be needed in any future vote on climate change to get a bill passed in the US Senate. The three who broke ranks to help the Obama administration pass the $US787billion ($1.1trillion) economic stimulus bill were Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe and Arlen Specter. "It's a complicated issue to tackle at a time when the economy is weak," Senator Collins said this week of climate change, while Senator Snowe was similarly dour. And Senator Specter is facing a likely challenge to his seat from another Republican and is showing signs of moving more to the Right to save his political skin.

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http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25284865-2703,00.html