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Record highs outnumbered record lows 2-to-1 over the last decade, and the study — published in Geophysical Research Letters last year — predicted that disparity could balloon to 20-to-1 by the end of this century without sharp curbs on greenhouse gas emissions.
While it’s impossible to pin blame for one heat wave on climate change, since naturally occurring weather patterns like El Niño can magnify or counteract human-caused warming over short periods, experts said an emerging crop of studies suggests that heat waves will become more frequent and intense without strong cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
“Model simulations do suggest that we can expect more and longer heat waves in the future …
that really does kind of depend on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions through the 21st century,” Easterling said. Without a dramatic decrease in heat-trapping emissions, he said, “what we currently consider a heat wave or an unusually hot day are very likely to become more then norm. The current spate of heat waves could be a harbinger of things to come.”
One new study by researchers at Stanford University finds that extreme high temperatures could become far more common even if the world manages to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius — the climate “guardrail” the European Union, the Group of Eight industrialized nations and many scientists believe will stave off severe climate change.
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http://www.earthportal.org/news/?p=3423