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On “Climate Change” v. “Global Warming”, chaos theory, “garbage in, garbage out” and why, despite all, there is hope
A few years ago it was hot and dry in these parts. Worse, the climate change projections based on computer modeling indicated hotter and drier was yet to come, basically predicting that the whole area would turn into a desert, likely an extreme desert like the Sahara. One knowledgeable person flatly stated that Lake Oahe would never be full again.
I understood enough about the ramifications of green house gasses, and about observed climate change, and the computer model predictions for the area that I certainly could not—and really still cannot—make a coherent and persuasive contrary argument, even to myself. But I thought I knew enough about chaos theory and computer modeling that I could find, if not a cogent argument, at least a dim ray of hope because with increased energy available (largely heat) I expected that unforeseen patterns would develop. Therefore there was a chance—global climate change and general global warming notwithstanding, that the area might not become the desert that the computer models predicted. (“Garbage in, garbage out”—if the programmers were missing key inputs, and for a more chaotic world this was certainly possible, then maybe, just maybe this area might remain populated notwithstanding global climate change and the best computer modeling.
Today, some 3 ½ to 4 years later, who knows? I don’t. I am not a “global warming denier” although “climate change” is clearly a better usage both rhetorically and descriptively. I don’t even know what changes have come about in the computer models. I do know that this area has been through near record hot and dry, and then through cold and wet, and then through hot and wet, and then through record cold and wet with some winter storms doing unheard of damage in this area, and then through record hot and wet, and Lake Oahe, and all of the Missouri River Reservoirs have been full and are full.
This area, or parts thereof that were spared hail and tornadoes and grasshoppers, had record crops last year, and record crops are projects in some places for this year despite record hail, and some tornadoes, and some grasshoppers, and more heat than anyone wants or can remember.
So what does all this mean? Again, who knows? It does not make me a “global warming denier” if I suggest that possibly, in some particulars the computer models might be wrong, but I am not so naïve as to suggest that the last 2 ½ years prove the computer models wrong insofar as they predict desertification for this area—but they certainly do not prove the computer models to be right. Indeed, I find my dim ray of hope gleaming a good bit brighter.
This does not mean that the world as a whole is not in a world of hurt because it is. It will do Bangladesh little good if, as is inhabitants are forced to flee or swim, crop production on the high plains in the United States and Canada holds level or even increases. For that matter it won’t do much for polar bears or any of a number of threatened and endangered species. For that matter it will also present new problems to the high plains which is already facing new diseases such as West Nile Virus and Lyme’s disease which were until recently unknown in this area but are which now definite problems.
I remains impossible to say very much with certainty in part because of the complexity of the issues, and in part because much of what is happening is still up in the air, “the wheel’s still in spin” as it were. It could for instance happen that despite and because of the best and worst efforts cumulative efforts of our species that the “answer” to “global warming” if not climate change may turn out to be nuclear winter.
But I hope not, and despite chaos, and uncertainty, and new or newly magnified problems including uncertainty itself, I have hope—in some particulars more hope than I had 3 ½ to 4 years ago.
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