Russian Wheat Loss Projections Up To 30% For 2010 - Global Wheat Prices At 2-Year Highs - AFP

[hatrack]

EDIT

Russia, currently the world's number three wheat exporter, has seen 20 percent of its arable land (10 million hectares, 24.7 million acres) scorched by a heatwave which has also hit its ambitions to raise its share of global markets. "I think we will have (a grain harvest of) 70-75 million tonnes," Deputy Agriculture Minister Alexander Belyayev told reporters in the Siberian city of Novosibrisk, Russian news agencies reported.

Giving the first official prediction since the full extent of the drought became clear, he said the ministry would give a more precise forecast once the harvest starts in Siberia from mid-August. Russia had a strong harvest of 97 million tonnes in 2009 and the agriculture ministry had already forecast that it would be lower this year at 85 million tonnes.

Last year, Russia exported 21.4 million tonnes of grain and observers have already warned this risks being sharply lower this year owing to the drought. The Russian Grain Union has been even bleaker on this year's harvest, putting it at only 72-78 million tonnes.

It also warned that in a worst-case scenario, exports could nearly halve this year, giving a range of 11 million tonnes to 19.5 million tonnes. Belyayev insisted that "for the moment" Russia did not plan to impose export restrictions and insisted this year's exports would be "at the level of previous years.

EDIT

http://www.terradaily.com/afp/100803145429.xxaypbth.html

[Tempest]

1. Just what the climate change models predicted

There will be more and more of these kinds of shortages in the coming years.

[dixiegrrrrl]

2. Worse yet, the hedge funds are bidding up food prices already.

Between real shortages and the commodity gamblers, a crisis is indeed happening.

Glad I cannot eat wheat/gluten.
Amazing how many items are not in my cart at the grocery store.
Almost everything in the center aisles contain wheat or other forbidden glutens.

[pscot]

4. Since Commodities trading is based on derivatives

Commoities funds allow for the creation of more elaborate derivative schemes with the potential for making a bubble, or wild price swings in food prices. If they bring the commodities markets down everyone on the planet will feel the pain.

[OnlinePoker]

3. There are no shortages, and that's just one crop year in one region

Go to page 51, 52, and 53 at the following link of grain production. This is July's report. You'll see the production of wheat, grains and rice have risen quite a bit in the last 23 years. Some years, it drops off, but the trend is still up in all categories (except barley where production has dropped because acreage planted has dropped). The problem isn't with production of food, but production of people. 1.5 billion more since these charts were started and this has kept the ending stocks at a fairly level amount.

http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/2010/07-10/grainfull07-10.pdf

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OnlinePoker]

6. And yet the evidence global research's info completely wrong on the grain front

08/09 and 09/10 were the best years ever for wheat and grains(corn, barley, rice, etc). 10/11, which we're in now is showing a bit of a drop off, but I'd trust the agriculture department's experts over g.r.'s any day.

[Tempest]

7. Why is your focus only on one product and you're ignoring TOTAL production?

What exactly is your intention? Why are you not being forthcoming?

[Tempest]

8. Looks like you're the one who's wrong

Worldwide grain production is down.

www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
www.igc.int/downloads/gmrsummary/gmrsumme.pdf
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5440

[OnlinePoker]

9. Which is exactly what I said.

But one lower crop year does not automatically validate or invalidate climate models. To say it does is to do the same thing deniers do, jump on any headline as proof of your point of view. It could just be a less than stellar year in an upward trend of food production. By the way, wheat may be down but corn and rice production are up. Why do I focus on grains you asked in the other post...because they are the primary food source for the majority of humanity, and generally, if these crops perform well, garden vegetables do well too.