UCLA Study - Multiple Ocean Cycles May Converge As "Perfect Drought" For Lake Mead, AZ, CA In 2011

[hatrack]

EDIT

Along with a former graduate student, MacDonald has found that the combination of La Nina with two less commonly known ocean conditions - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - tends to result in drought in the upper reaches of the Colorado River. The ocean conditions have been known to diminish precipitation in the Southwest but, examined separately, have proven to be poor indicators of drought conditions in the upper reaches of the river. "It's the combination that's key," said lead author Abbie Tingstad, who conducted the research as a graduate student in geography at UCLA. She is now an associate physical scientist at the RAND Corp. The convergence of these patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans may well drive water levels in the Lake Mead reservoir below a critical threshold and could potentially result in reduced water allocations for Arizona and Nevada, the researchers say.

Essentially all of the Colorado River water used by Southern California passes through the reservoir, which is the largest in the nation. Fed primarily by snowpack melt from its upper reaches, the river is Southern California's chief source of water. "Declines in water availability of this magnitude during the coming winter could be devastating for states that depend on the Colorado River for their water," Tingstad said.

The study appears in the October issue of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

By studying ancient tree rings, Tingstad and MacDonald were able to reconstruct river flow and winter snowpack levels going back several hundred to almost 1,000 years for a mountainous region of northeastern Utah. Responsible for 10 percent to 15 percent of the flow in the river, the Uinta Mountains region has a climate representative of the upper Colorado River basin, the researchers say, so conditions experienced there are similar to those that occurred elsewhere in the upper basin.

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http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Ocean_Conditions_Likely_To_Reduce_Colorado_River_Flows_During_This_Winter_Drought_999.html

[phantom power]

1. whee

:woohoo:

[Sinistrous]

2. Isn't Lake Mead still recovering from a multi-year drought?

I remember the doom and gloom reports from a couple of years ago.

[phantom power]

3. I don't think that drought never really ended, from a geologist's perspective.

[Sinistrous]

4. OK.

Now that you mention it, I haven't seen any reports of full, or even partial, recovery.

Thank you.

[hatrack]

5. I know Las Vegas is still in the process of extending its intake tunnel

That said, they're not likely to take chances under any circumstances.

[truedelphi]

6. Thank you for posting about this Ocean Cycle situation. n/t