China's Wind Power Forecast at 230 GW by 2020

[jpak]

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/10/chinas-wind-power-forecast-at-230-gw-by-2020

With an annual output of 464.9 TWh, Chinese wind farms would replace 200 coal fired plants, according to the joint report by Greenpeace, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA) and the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).

Over 2009 China’s 13.8 GW in new capacity led the world, working out at a new turbine every hour. The country’s total capacity of 25.8 GW is now the world’s second highest.

“China’s speed of wind power development is remarkable,” said Steve Sawyer, secretary general of GWEC.

“In 2005, only one Chinese company was among the top 15 manufacturers in the world. Today, there are five.”

<more>

[Nederland]

1. That's about the same as their predicted nuclear output

If you assume a 30% capacity factor for wind and 85% for nuclear.

It will be interesting to see which prediction is more accurate.

[NNadir]

2. Um, one can actually calculate from the numbers the anticipated capacity factor.

The numbers are, of course, provided by the wind industry and Greenpeace, and are thus provided by people who either lie about math or simply can't do any, but even so...

Before determining the anticipated capacity factor, I should note that China will never find the gas to back up these shit heaps of whirling metal, so the point is moot.

But even if the retards at Greenpeace were telling the truth, they claim that the wind plants will produce 464.9TWh of energy. This is 1.67 exajoules, not counting the gas spinning reserve that must be burned.

The average continuous power of 1.67 exajoules over a year is 53,000 MW or 53 GW.

The typical fraudulent claim wherein the capacity at peak is attempted to represent a reliable plant - used by every gas funded renewable scammer in the world - is that there will be "230 GW".

Thus the anticipated capacity utilization - assuming the plants don't all fall apart within ten or twenty years, not a good bet - will be 23%.

The rest of the time, 77%, the Chinese will be burning gas, if they can get it, and they won't be able to.

If they try to do back up with coal, the pollution cost will be enormous, since they will have to reheat boilers, wasting huge amounts of money.

China has announced plans to have 80GW of nuclear reactors completed in the next ten years. Twenty four of them are under construction. They have announced an 800 Billion Yuan investment in the plants over the next five years. If the plants operate at 90%, the typical capacity utilization of nuclear plants in advanced nuclear nations, they will produce 2.27 exajoules of pure electricity requiring no back up.

The twenty four reactors now under construction - not counting the one that came on line last month and is now producing more energy in one small building than the entire nation of Denmark can produce in all their whirling metal pieces of wind junk - will produce (at 90% capacity) 0.76 exajoules of energy each year.

Obviously the claim is not substantiated by the numbers.

The wind industry has been a failure in every country in the world where it has been attempted, since not one dangerous fossil fuel plant has been shut because of it.

Every nation in the world with the exception of Costa Rica that has sought to run of so called renewable energy has degenerated into a dangerous fossil fuel hell hole. There are no exceptions.

China will go nuclear. It is going nuclear, just as France did in the 1980's. They don't give a rat's ass about Greenpeace in China, because in China, science and engineering are respected.

[NickB79]

3. To put that in perspective, China has been adding 100 GW of total capacity PER YEAR

For the better part of a decade now, most of that coal.

"With an annual output of 464.9 TWh, Chinese wind farms would replace 200 coal fired plants, according to the joint report by Greenpeace, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA) and the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)."

Sounds good on paper, but in the real world that's not how it works. What will happen is that China will keep those 200 coal fired plants running, and use wind as a complimentary source, not a replacement. Wind will slow the overall growth in coal plant construction, but won't reduce the total number of coal-fired plants in a country as hungry for cheap energy sources as China.

[kristopher]

4. I don't think that is true.

Did you note the comments about the requirement for the grid to purchase all power output of the wind turbines? That is a law that is less than a year old, and it places thermal generation at the back of the purchasing queue.

That is a unique policy for a country that is creating its grid. In an established grid such as Europe or the US it would serve to bolster the industrial base of wind, and it would be a separate task to accomplish full integration with a grid designed around prioritizing centralized thermal generation.

However in a developing grid what this law will do is to create a distributed grid from the ground up. It will eventually choke out centralized thermal just like a centralized thermal grid by its design tries to choke out small scale distributed generation.

No, I don't think your assessment is correct at all.

[NNadir]

5. If you can't face reality, make stuff up. The number of dangerous fossil fuel plants shut by...

...so called "renewable energy" is, after 50 years of mindless chanting of dogma, zero.

Germany is building new gas lines to its ownership at Gazprom, new coal plants and has zero intention of phasing out dangerous fossil fuels.

Zero.

Denmark is drilling faster in the North Sea for oil and gas than any other nation in Europe, more than BP.

The faith based "renewables work" is pure garbage, and is, in fact, owned by the dangerous fossil fuel industry pig, for which it works as lipstick.

On the entire planet, solar power, after 54 years of cheering obliviously, produced just 0.097 exajoules (0.092 quads) of energy on a planet now using 500 exajoules of energy per year.

http://tonto.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=36&aid=12&cid=&syid=2004&eyid=2008&unit=QBTU">Solar, Wind, and Tidal Output on the Entire Planet.

The renewables faith is nothing more than a garbage proposal by the coal, oil and gas industry to substitute fantasy for reality.

[kristopher]

6. How is it you lack even the most basic grasp of logic?

Oh, that's right. You are a "nuclear" environmentalist intent on promoting the interests of the nuclear energy industry so sound reasoning and valid logic are toxic to your objective.

Got it.