Expect a busy 2011 Hurricane season

[pscot]

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

[JDPriestly]

1. Sorry. I don't understand this very well.

How many storms, etc. did we have in 2010?

[happyslug]

2. 20 Named Storms. 12 Hurricanes,

2010 National Weather Service Achieves:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2010atlan.shtml

Danielle and Julie Were the only category 4 Hurricanes, no category 5s in 2010.

[Strelnikov_]

10. Earl and Igor were 4's, Igor nearly hit 5

Igor was impressive.

[FBaggins]

3. Their record is better than tossing chicken bones or reading tarot cards...

...but not by much. :)

[guardian]

4. Awww don't make fun of them

They have the best goat entrails money can buy. And now that they are using the Mayan Calendar their predictions will be twice as good. I mean James Hansen has been using this technique for 25 years. Look how often he has been right. eerrrrr I mean don't bother looking at his prediction record...only pay attention to the latest dire prediction of DOOM!!!

[pscot]

5. I don't understand your comment

This is a weather forecast, not an interpretation of the Mayan calendar.

[FBaggins]

6. It's a "weather forecast" that has only been slightly more accurate...

...than interpretations of the Mayan calendar.

[pscot]

7. Long range forecasts are based on probability

You pays you money and takes your chance.

[happyslug]

8. We have to give long term weather predictions some leeway

It had to be 20 years ago, I read a report comparing the Old Farmer's Almanac next year weather forecasts with the National Weather Service (NWS) 90 day long range weather forecast. The Old farmer's predictions were found to be 24.1% accurate, the National Weather Service (NWS) predictions was found to be 24% accurate. Worse, the .1% difference was called Statistically significant (i.e. real as oppose to some sort of error inherent in the math calculations). Everybody laughed about it, but pointed out NO ONE WAS DOING ANY BETTER except those people who were making NO long term predictions. Even then it was considered you needed the latest super computer to do accurate weather predictions of three days ahead (and anything over three days was at best a guess anyway, the situation to this day given the data input that needs to be handle by a computer to predict that far in the future).

Worse, at that time (20 years ago) The National Weather Service (NWS) was trying to get Congress to pay for a Super Computer for its predictions, given that European Weather Service had a Super Computer, and was beating the National Weather Service (NWS) in making those three day predictions at that time (and making money while doing so, shippers even then would pay a premium for accurate three day predictions).

I bring up the National Weather Service (NWS) desire for a Super computer 20 years ago, to show you how much data has to be handle to make any form of long term weather prediction. The data is that massive, thus any form of long term prediction is more educated guess then anything else. I use the term Educated Guess more to show that there is some science behind it, some data, but the key is it is to much data to process in any form of Scientific way, thus the only way to make long term predictions has a good bit of guessing in it but is also based on experience and what data that has been found to have a great say in future weather. Accurate, no, but it is the best forecast we have and given the need to planning still a valuable tool.

[pscot]

9. These long range charts

give you a pretty good read on long term weather patterns. I wouldn't use them to plan a picnic, but for a farmerer or a gardenerer wondering whether tomatoes will ripen this year they have some value. Our improved understanding of ENSO has made these a lot more reliable.