How bad is the Fukushima Fallout

[Yo_Mama]

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110410001935.htm

I thought this was an interesting article because of the comparisons with Chernobyl. I had always concentrated on the Soviet territories; I hadn't realized how badly Germany had been affected.

The article is pretty detailed.

[intaglio]

1. 330 hill farms in Wales

were still restricted from selling sheep due to fallout from Chernobyl as of this year
North Wales Daily Post 14 April

As late as 2008 farms in Scotland were still restricted
Food Standards Agency

In earlier posts on other threads I posted the original number affected rather than currently due to relying on another persons search results.

[Yo_Mama]

3. Yes, the cesium has such a long half-life

I was trying to bracket the expected ag losses at Fukushima.

I realize that the two accidents are extremely different in nature. Chernobyl was sort of a nuclear volcano which spewed huge volumes of radioactive particles into the atmosphere in a very short time. Fukushima is a much lower-level emitter, but seems set to emit for a longer time. So the distribution patterns will be different.

But since we are beginning to get the first soil contamination readings out of Japan, and since we know levels of the longer-lived isotopes aren't going to be dropping in the close-in areas, it at least gives an index.

http://www.terrapub.co.jp/e-library/kawahata/pdf/147.pdf
I found that article helpful in guessing at marine impacts.

[Someguyinjapan]

2. Depends on how you classify fallout

Of course, you are referring to the literal concept. But the economic/political fallout from this? Possibilities include:

1.) Sending an already chronically frail Japanese economy into a permanent tailspin, through lost production and reconstruction costs.
2.) Japanese food production permanently impaired, and for the export market permanently destroyed.
3.) Mass exodus of foreign-staffed foreign multinationals.
4.) Permanent spikes in unemployment.
5.) Economic meltdown as a result of the twin burdens of the highest debt-load of developed nations coupled with a $300 billion plus reconstruction bill that they can't afford.
6.) Wholesale violations of labor laws as companies struggle to stay afloat.
7.) A drastic spike in the already overheated suicide rate.
8.) Geopolitical marginalization on the world stage.

As I said, these are possibilities. Not probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that the outcomes of this event are not going to be positive, whatever happens.

[kristopher]

4. All of that is possible but

There is also the possibility that this presents an opportunity to totally rebuild the energy infrastructure. Should this path be chosen, it doesn't require money that the nation doesn't have since the funding is the flow of cash that is currently flowing into the nuclear industry. The losers would be the owners of present generating facilities as they see their investments not deliver the expected return over time.

Don't forget the response to Perry nor the rebuilding effort after WWII.

[SpoonFed]

5. You hit the nail on the head...

of what infuriates me about the pro-nuke talking pointers and how they are willing pushing up against the this opportunity. I think the inertia of support will dwindle as the length and degree of severity of this filthspew continues.

[SpoonFed]

6. by support,

i mean support for nuclear fission power and the inertia of the nuclear fission industry. (if it wasn't entirely clear in my post).

The only good thing I see coming out of this debacle is greater support and speed in developing and deploying better, less harmful energy sources.

[Someguyinjapan]

7. You are overlooking

Significant reasons why Japan recovered: a massive amount of money that the U.S. poured into it in the aftermath of the war (granted, in the form of loans, but still...) to help it rebuild and devaluation of the yen, which before the surrender stood at 4 to the dollar. MacArthur devalued it to somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 to the dollar, which provided Japan a competitive edge in making it's exports affordable.

It wasn't all down to their 頑張れ (try hard) spirit. I will concede that it had a major contributing role, but would have been not nearly as effective had the U.S. not provided the assistance it did. Something that many Japanese are also busy trying to revise out of their recent history.

[kristopher]

8. I didn't overlook anything.

There are a lot of policy issues that go into anything as large-scale as rebuilding a nation's infrastructure. The essential point I made remains intact.

You say you've been in Japan for a long time eh? Your perspective is that of someone who has been there less than 2 years.

[Someguyinjapan]

11. Yeah

There are a lot of policy issues that go into rebuilding a nation's infrastructure. Yes, there are two paths the Japanese can choose-develop an alternative energy policy or continue with the current one. Yes, your point is correct, however for me, the question isn't if they have a choice, but whether they will make the choice or not. And given the way Japanese society is structured, I am not optimistic that we will be seeing the sea-change in policy that this disaster provides.

I've been here long enough to have figured that out, regardless whether you believe the length of my stay or not. And part of what I rebutted ignored (concerning the post-WWII rebuilding) was completely true. But I see you implicitly agreed, as you didn't bother challenging that.

[kristopher]

12. I not only agree, I'd add to it.

The most important external boost during post WWII was the Korean War and the money the UN used while staging out of Japan.

But that is at a different level of than what I was talking about, which is why I included the Meiji Restoration and the political economic restructuring that entailed.

You say "given the way Japanese society is structured" and that goes directly to the point about your time in Japan. You recently had an exchange with someone else where you were berating the Japanese for the fact they didn't share your values about what constitutes comfort. By the time most people I met were there more than 2 years, they had pretty much internalized the comfort and convenience values that make the country what it is in that regard. I certainly wouldn't challenge your word about the time you've spent there as it offers a diverse set of lessons that we can't all share and there *are* plenty of Japanese that DO want central air along with all of the comfort and convenience they can pack into their 2LDK lives.

However, I didn't have to scratch too deeply to find a pretty traditional set of values in even the most westernized of all that I met.

But you never know. The path the country followed through the 30s into WWII was nothing short of self-deluded insanity, so I wouldn't say your pessimism lacks basis; but I do think this is closer to a lessons learned moment of consolidation than it is a period of exuberant aggressive expansion.

[Kablooie]

9. Radiation is low and constant in Tokyo

It jumped up to .4 right after the tsunami but has dropped back down.




http://www.denphone.com/denphone-tokyo-office-geiger-counter

[FBaggins]

10. And levels in their water supply have fallen below detectable levels. n/t