Scientists on Monday painted a gloomy picture of the effects of global warming on the Arctic, warning of melting ocean ice, rising oceans, thawed permafrost and forests susceptible to bugs and fire. "A lot of the stories you read make it sound like there's uncertainty," said Jonathan Overpeck, a professor of geosciences at the University of Arizona. "There's not uncertainty."
The questions scientists continue to address, he said after his presentation at the Alaska Forum on the Environment, are how much of the warming is caused by humans and how drastic long-term effects will be.
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James Overland, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for more than 30 years, said the loss of sea ice has meant some marine life has thrived and some has been hurt. "The marine ecosystem is shifting north dramatically," he said. Pollock are thriving in warmer water. Pink salmon are being found in great numbers farther north, "an incredible indicator of warming," he said. Crab and other bottom-dwellers who depend on ice overhead for part of the year are suffering.
Glenn Juday, professor of forest ecology at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said tree growth has decreased at Interior Alaska sites that were promising for commercial harvest. Studies of temperatures at Talkeetna and Fairbanks indicate daily lows are not as low as they used to be. The warming lowers the water available to white spruce, black spruce and birch, Juday said. "The warmer it is, the less the trees grow," Juday said. Warming also makes them more susceptible to fire and insects. Vladimir Romanovsky, an associate professor of geophysics at UAF, reviewed effects of warming on permafrost, or ground continuously frozen for two years. Areas of thick permafrost in the far north remain stable but have warmed over 20 years one-half to 2 degrees at a depth of 20 meters, Romanovsky said.
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