http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Cost2001.PDF Fuel Levelized costs ...............(cents/kWh) (1996)
Coal..................................... 4.8-5.5 (more like 7 cents now)
Gas ..................................... 3.9-4.4(2.5 to 3 times this now)
Hydro ...................................5.1-11.3
Biomass ................................5.8-11.6
Nuclear ...............................11.1-14.5
Wind (without PTC) .................4.0-6.0
Wind (with PTC)......................3.3-5.3The cost of natural gas has increased since 1996, so that the levelized cost of gas–
fired power plants would now be considerably higher. In January 2001, the cost of
natural gas generated power was running as high as 15 cents to 20 cents per kWh in
certain markets <3>. The cost of wind power, meanwhile, has declined slightly.
Four additional points about the economics of wind energy should be considered when
estimating its relative cost.
First, the cost of wind energy is strongly affected by average wind speed and the size
of a wind farm. Since the energy that the wind contains is a function of the cube of its
speed, small differences in average winds from site to site mean large differences in
production and, therefore, in cost. The same wind plant will, all other factors being
equal, generate electricity at a cost of 4.8 cents/kWh in 7.16 m/s (16 mph) winds, 3.6
cents/kWh at 8.08 m/s (18 mph) winds, and 2.6 cents/kWh in 9.32 m/s (20.8 mph)
winds. Larger wind farms provide economies of scale. A 3-MW wind plant generating
electricity at 5.9 cents per kWh would, all other factors being equal, generate electricity
at 3.6 cents/kWh if it were 51 MW in size.
Second, wind energy is a highly capital-intensive technology; its cost reflects the
capital required for equipment manufacturing and plant construction.
This in turn means
that wind's economics are highly sensitive to the interest rate charged on that capital.
One study found that if wind plants were financed on the same terms as natural gas
plants, their cost would drop by nearly 40%. <4>
Third, the cost of wind energy is dropping faster than the cost of conventional
generation. While the cost of a new gas plant has fallen by about one-third over the
past decade, the cost of wind has dropped by 15% with each doubling of installed
capacity worldwide, and capacity has doubled three times during the 1990s. Wind
power today costs only about one-fifth as much as in the mid-1980s, and its cost is
expected to decline by another 35-40% by 2006. <5>
Fourth, if environmental costs were included in the calculation of the costs of electricity
generation, wind energy's competitiveness would increase further because of its low
environmental impacts. Wind energy produces no emissions, so there is no damage to
the environment or public health from emissions and wastes such as are associated
with the production of electricity from conventional power plants. Wind energy is also
free of the environmental costs resulting from mining or drilling, processing, and
shipping a fuel. <6>
NOTES
1. Levelized costing calculates in current dollars all capital, fuel, and operating and maintenance costs
associated with the plant over its lifetime and divides that total cost by the estimated output in kWh over
the lifetime of the plant.
2. California Energy Commission (CEC) Energy Technology Status Report 1996. Sacramento. All CEC
estimates are in constant dollars as of 1993, with costs "levelized over a typical lifetime (usually 30
years) beginning in 2000" (p. 57). All cost estimates are for investor-owned utility (IOU) ownership.
3. Wall Street Journal, January 26, 2001, p B1.
4. Wiser, Ryan, and Edward Kahn. 1996. "Alternative Windpower Ownership Structures." LBNL-
38921. Berkeley, Calif.: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. May.
5. Chapman, Jamie, Steven Wiese, Edgar DeMeo, and Adam Serchuk. 1998. "Expanding Wind
Power: Can Americans Afford It?" Research Report No. 6. Washington, D.C.: Renewable Energy Policy
Project.
6. State attempts to set up a process by which some of the environmental costs of electricity production,
or externalities, could be taken into account in economic calculations have focused on air emissions
alone and set externalities estimates in the range of 3-6 cents per kWh for coal and 0.5 to 2 cents for
natural gas. For a comprehensive study of environmental costs, see Richard Ottinger et al.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
