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According to Jeff Masters, the Noreaster, defied models to predict it.

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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 01:02 PM
Original message
According to Jeff Masters, the Noreaster, defied models to predict it.
Edited on Mon Feb-13-06 01:04 PM by NNadir
Our Noreaster is another bit of evidence that the weather is becoming dangerously destabilized. Much like the hurricanes this summer, the recent storm did not behave as it was supposed to do.

The Blizzard of 2006 is over, but not before dumping an all-time record amount of snow on New York City, 26.9 inches. This bested the total from the infamous "Great White Hurricane" of 1888 (21 inches), and the previous all-time record, 26.4", set December 26-27, 1947. The 26.9 inches at Central Park was the most snow of any location in New York State. Hartford, CT also set its all-time record for snowfall, with 21.9 inches...

...What appeared to be a rather ordinary Nor'easter on the computer model forecasts Saturday, intensified dramatically on Sunday as the center moved out over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. For reasons we don't understand very well, the blizzard formed an intense band of thunderstorms with snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour that swept across New York City and much of southern New England. Eleven inches of snow fell in three hours at Central Park between 7am and 10am on Sunday, the kind of "snowburst" one seldom sees except in lake-effect storms in the lee of the Great Lakes. New York City reported lightning and thunder for six hours during the height of the blizzard...

...When is a blizzard like a hurricane?
The Blizzard of 2006 had a distinct eye-like feature when it moved offshore over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters and intensified Sunday. Was it exhibiting hurricane-like characteristics? I'll report tomorrow on a study I participated in back in 1987 when we flew our Hurricane Hunter airplanes through one of the strongest Nor'easters ever recorded, to help answer this question.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Snow lightening? An eye?

"For reasons we don't understand very well..." indeed.
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stop the bleeding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
1. Jeff is the bomb - can't wait to see what he says about this on Tuesday
:toast:
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 01:06 PM
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2. duplicate post here...
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Whoops sorry about that! I didn't see it.
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 01:14 PM
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4. Thanks.
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 01:24 PM
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5. Maybe it was a Sou'wester?
Old Simpson's joke. :)
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ItsTheMediaStupid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 01:30 PM
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6. It's unusual, but not that big a surprise
Another global warming indicator?

We did just have the warmest January on record. Geese near Richmond, VA had laid eggs and were sitting on nests less than two weeks ago.
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 02:10 PM
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7. Well, *I* predicted it
:puffpiece:

The Great Pigwidgeon Knows All, Sees All, Shovels Into The Night.

We also got thundersnow in Bucks County, PA, off-and-on, between 2 and 5 AM, the height of the storm. The bands of which Masters writes were very prominent on the WU doppler radars, and even the lower-quality Accu-Weather displays.

No, it wasn't a 36-incher, but it approached 30 in New York City. In my own area near Doylestown, PA, we got 18-22 inches. The accumulations were generally 75% deeper than the maximum the meteorologists were calling for.

Nor'easters have been showing an increase of tropical features for some time now. They've been observed for years, but the increase is recent. But, of course, the conservative nature of scientists keeps them from announcing the obvious. I can't say I blame them for being cautious, but us amateurs have been a little slow on the uptake, as well.

--p!
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-13-06 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Sounds like Masters is going to post on increasing "tropicalness" tomorrow
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