Scientiest (sic): Corn supply may not be ample (ethanol)

[jpak]

http://www.thetimesonline.com/articles/2006/02/14/business/business/6e62cd13f8d557b386257114008166e7.txt

CHICAGO | An Illinois ethanol scientist said Monday that the Midwest can't produce enough corn with current acreage to meet the nation's likely long-term demand for ethanol so other sources like wood chips, municipal waste and corn stalks must be developed.

Speaking to the Chicago Farmers organization, Dr. Rodney Bothast, research director of the newly formed National Corn-to-Ethanol Research Center at Southern Illinois University in Edwardsville, said nearly 95 percent of the ethanol produced in the United States is made from corn, consuming roughly 12 percent of the harvest in 2005.

By 2012, Bothast predicted, ethanol could take 20 percent of the corn harvest, meaning further research is necessary to create ethanol from biomass materials such as corn stover, which is the stalk and leaves of the corn plant, and switch grass, now used for hay. President Bush noted such a development need in his State of the Union message last month.

"In the research arena, there's a clear understanding that there are constraints in allowing biomass to be converted to ethanol in a robust way," Bothast said.

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[papau]

1. 90% of corn used for cow feed - so cut back on beef eating and it will be

all in balance!

[Spinzonner]

3. Not to mention that we shouldn't be letting all that methane

flatulence get away

[punpirate]

7. Well, not exactly...

... there's cow corn and then there's sweet corn. Cow corn goes to feed, well, cows. Sweet corn goes to the table, to the manufacture of high-fructose corn syrup and to ethanol production (it's the sugars in the sweet corn that are fermented to ethanol). Given the amount of high-fructose corn syrup being used in soft drinks these days, it might actually make more sense to give up soft drinks. :)

The problem is complicated by the fact that the mash remaining after ethanol production is dried and used as a high-protein feed supplement for... animals such as cows, and selling that feed from mash is necessary to offset the production costs of making ethanol.

It's going to actually require a larger amount of production, and while that may be possible in the short term, there's probably not enough arable land available to supply both food and fuel for an entire nation. There's one more problem with this--production has been over-stimulated through the use nitrate fertilizers for many years. When those nitrates work their way into moist soil, they create very weak nitric acid, which leaches away some of the necessary trace minerals in the soil. This affects plant growth, which prompts the farmer to use more nitrates. There have been some rather alarming studies in the last five or so years that suggest that, depending upon rainfall and the amount of nitrate fertilizer used, there could be a production collapse because of it.

Cheers.

[Dogmudgeon]

10. We must close the Microwave Popcorn gap!

--p!

[jedr]

2. As an outsider in a farm family ( city boy)

Let me assure you that if there is a demand for corn it will be grown!

[splat]

4. get rid of the high-fructose corn syrup making us fat...

and put it towards energy uses. An elegant solution!

[HereSince1628]

5. I've read estimate from the USDA that are even worse

from studies back in the late 90's. In a country where everything turned to ethanol, ethanol based energy use for production and transport of the crop would consume nearly 25% of yearly production.

When you start thinking about the competition between feeding cars and feeding livestock and people this begins to look like it can only be a component of what must be a more comprehensive solution for an automobilophilic society.

[jedr]

8. some insight;

In the 70's the yield per acre of corn was about 60 bu. Today yield are in the high 100's with and yields of over 200 bu/ac. are not uncommon. Corn has not been a profitable crop for about the past 6 or 7 rears and the amount of land given to the production of corn has dropped because of the price. If there is a high demand for corn the technology and land is there and it will be produced.

[HereSince1628]

12. I think the estimates I read also included 150 acre yeilds

which even now isn't unreasonable depending on rainfall, and other energy inputs now subsidized by fossil fuel. These will become increasingly pricey if not unavailable to agriculture.

I know that on my farm in SE Wisconsin yields for maize vary widely with the year.

During the past 7 years, aquifers in the great plains have only gotten smaller and deeper. Mining fossil water is no more sustainable than pumping crude oil. The expect warming of the great plains states will lead to drier summers and will prove even more difficult to sustain yields without deep water subsidies.

I agree that corn price will rise with demand. My concern is that the demand for feeding cars and trucks in the general economy which is literally a billion vehicles. As well as fueling farm implements etc, is not going to be able to be met.

[proReality]

6. It's not the corn supply that's the problem...

The Ogallala aquifer is going dry, so there is less and less water to keep crops going.

[jbonkowski]

9. Soil depletion is an issue too

The approach seems to be that nothing is consumed in making the corn, grass, etc. for the ethanol. The truth is that even with crop rotation, the great growing soil in the US will not last forever, and is in fact greatly depleted already.

Also, don't forget where all the ammonia in the fertilizer comes from: natural gas.

Ethanol may help, but nothing is as good as better efficiency and less energy usage.

jim

[JohnWxy]

11. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Study forecast ethanol can supply 30% of

fuel demand for transportation.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=38006


"The recently completed Oak Ridge National Laboratory report outlines a national strategy in which 1 billion dry tons of biomass - any organic matter that is available on a renewable or recurring basis - would displace 30 percent of the nation's petroleum consumption for transportation. Supplying more than 3 percent of the nation's energy, biomass already has surpassed hydropower as the largest domestic source of renewable energy, and researchers believe much potential remains. "

This study was predicated on an insignificant impact on food production. Obviously, nobody is going to displace food for ethanol production.

I don't think this study included an allowance for the upcoming development of energy crops (switch grass being one). Switchgrass has a very low requirement for fertilizer, no requirement for pesticides, can be grown on margiinal land not currrently used for agriculture and has a productivity several times that of corn (sugar cane, et al) -- once the enzymes that are needed to break down the cellulose are produced more cheaply.

Cellulosic ethanol is a new technology and it's much tougher the estimate with accuracy just how high the productivity can go with it. So the researchers tend to be conservative in estimating its potential.

But it does not , at least given our current level of technology, look like ethanol is going to replace all the gasoline. It will take every technology we can think of. However, fuel cell technology will probably be practical in about 20 to 30 years. That will enable us to have ground transportation without using fossil fuel. What we have to do is develop alternate fuel sources to alleviate the situation as much as possible till we have fuel-cell technology fully operational.

If you combine ethanol's 30% potential with hybrid car technology you are starting to see a pretty significant reduction in fossil fuel use. Maybe a 50% reduction of fossil fuel usage. I dont know what the expectation of bio-diesel is (I think those commercial hog farms in North Caroline could probably supply fuel for about 100,000 cars though!).

OF course, another nice feature of cellulosic ethanol is while corn ethanol can reduce GHG about 65% over gasoline usage, cellulosic ethanol can reach an 85% reduction (that is if American car manufactureres make their FFVs so they take advantage of the higher octane rating of ethanol fuel (like Saab has done wtih the 9-5 Bo-Power) and get the mileage up to where straight gasoline use is).

[jedr]

13. Great discussion;

I'm always impressed by the knowledge of many of the members. also thank you for the heart ( whoever), I'm very pleased.